turned baby flush- fold to raise?

he was new to the table, so no major read other than he just doubled up by betting pot-pot-push with TPGK as a shorty.
also his flop call and turn hitting the "match-pot button" was real quick.

(I know pre flop isn't very good, sort of tilting but also knew the pfr was real loose/donkish)

Ultimate Bet
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50./$1.
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $91.50
UTG+1: $11.75
CO: $88.70
Button: $75.65
SB: $140.40
Hero: $99.90

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is BB with 5:heart: 4:heart:
2 folds, CO calls, Button raises to $2, SB folds, Hero calls, CO calls.

Flop: 3:heart: T:heart: 7:club: ($6.5, 3 players)
Hero bets $4, CO calls, Button folds.

Turn: 8:heart: ($14.5, 2 players)
Hero bets $9, CO raises to $41.5, Hero folds.

Gross. I don't think the preflop call is bad, it's only a min-raise from the button. Without a proper read on the guy I stick it all in.

well given he played aggro on the flop with top pair earlier, what am I hoping he plays like this that I beat if I push? J9, 87?
or could he call with a pair and heart then raise the turn as a semibluff?
I dunno, these all seem less likely then a flush to me...

The thing that sticks out to me is the awfully big raise the guy makes. Your hand is way under repped so I think it's a call.

as far as his raise size, some ppl are married to the bet pot button, so it's common to just hit that whenever they bet.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by benny999

could he call with a pair and heart then raise the turn as a semibluff?

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Yes, I think so. His pfr range could be huge here. He could also have TPTK with Ah, two pair, a set, a str8 or worse. His bet looks like he's protecting his hand against the board more than building a pot. I say all in.

nobody thinks a flush is too likely?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

The thing that sticks out to me is the awfully big raise the guy makes. Your hand is way under repped so I think it's a call.

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I agree with this comment. There's no way villain really puts you on a flush, and he probably thinks he could steal the pot with his huge turn raise. If villain is aggro, I think I call here.

alright well thanks everybody. I actually did go all in and was shown the QJ high flush. I didn't want to sound result-oriented though, and see what you guys think of my logic for folding because looking back there could be >40% chance (I put in about 73 into a 176 pot after the flush hit) based on how aggro he was with top pair earlier that he would have a flush, since he'd raise top pair+ on the flop. Then again one hand is not really enough for a read like that.

I've had lots of cooler type hands and suckouts lately, so that could also be influencing me here, but you might be surprised on UB to see how often people just get excited to make a hand and jam the bet pot button without considering anything else. anyway I feel better about how I played now at least.

you played it fine, folding here is bad. the only debate is whether to call the raise and do something on river or just push here.