3/6 KK in a tough spot.

Don't have HH with me, so I'll type it out. Villain (BB) is a 23/18 solid tag, capable of moves, but generally doesn't get out of line. Donk open limps, I raise K :diamond: K :heart: up to $27 on the button, BB calls, donk folds.

Flop: 8 :spade: 8 :club: 6 :heart: (pot $60)
check/check

Turn: 4 :spade: (pot $60)
check, I bet $50 into a $60 pot, BB check/raises to $170, I call

River: 2 :club: (pot ~$400)
BB shoves, $400 to me. What is my action? Does it make a difference if you hold JJ or AA here? Any comments on previous parts of the hand are welcome.

I don't think AA-JJ makes any difference, because I really don't put him on an overpair here. I find it really hard to believe anyone is checking a flop and turn with a hand.
If he has an 8 here why doesn't he just lead out the turn? All that's calling is an overpair anyway or a spade draw. The line looks so much like a missed flush draw or total crap I think I'd have to call. But then again I'm at 50NL.

what does he think of you?

89 diamonds?

nice fold.

insta call, you under repped your hand so he is bluffing more than you think

As Gabe said you have under-repped your hand a lot. It's difficult for him to put you on as strong a hand as KK here. I find it hard to think of a hand he is value betting and that we beat here other then JJ/TT.

The value in calling comes from his bluffing frequency in this spot which I believe will be high because of the weak way you played the hand. I think you have to call.

I would call. I don't think he has you beat often enough to fold. Like everyone says, your hand is seriously under-repped. You look like you're trying to steal the turn or something after whiffing on the flop.

I agree it's close and in that situation you should call to at least get more info. maybe if you knew more about how he thought and stuff like that you could fold, then again you'd probably not post the hand if you had such a read.

btw, think you played it good. not sure if it would play out different if you bet the flop but maybe that way he wouldn't have check-raised and you'd have easier decisions. but easier decisions shouldn't be the goal. anyway nh.

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Originally Posted by Pelion

what does he think of you?

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I was actually villain in this hand. Didn't have too much of a read on button, except that he's at some of my tables.

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Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

If he has an 8 here why doesn't he just lead out the turn? All that's calling is an overpair anyway or a spade draw.

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For simplicitiy's sake, assume bn has either a overpair, spade draw, or nothing. If he has an overpair, checking turn is better than betting b/c he will often never believe you and you can probably extract more from him with this weird line. He may fold to a river push, but he never folds to turn c/r. If he has a flush draw, it's a little closer. He may or may not continue if he gets c/r'ed on turn, and he may even shove tover the c/r thinking I'm FOS. If he has nothing, checking is clearly better.

Gabe and IE: Obv our hand is under-repped, but not necessarily well disguised when we call turn c/r. I'm not saying this is a fold (I actually think it's a call).

Meh, IMO the river is a fold. Getting ready to go out so I'll elaborate later.

Now that I look more this could easily be a set.

imo 99 is the same hand as AA here if villain is 23/18 (so he repops 1010+ almost 100%)

It's very close here. Since you underrepped your hand on flop I think you have to call ; he could have been trying to push you off your weak turn bet with the c/r and whiffed a draw. Flip a coin... I lean towards calling.

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Originally Posted by Genitruc

imo 99 is the same hand as AA here if villain is 23/18 (so he repops 1010+ almost 100%)

It's very close here. Since you underrepped your hand on flop I think you have to call ; he could have been trying to push you off your weak turn bet with the c/r and whiffed a draw. Flip a coin... I lean towards calling.

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Preflop stats don't lend too much information to how light somebody 3 bets, FWIW. People who have extremely close gaps between their vpip/pfr are usually the ones that 3 bet light, but some people just rarely cold call in general so that explains their tiny gap between vpip/pfr.

In this hand I think the majority of the hands a 23/18 has are pocket pairs, those are easily the most weight in his range. Sometimes stuff like QJs, but less likely than stuff like 22-99. If he has 22-99, he either has a set on this board or he has something like a total air QJ type hand. It doesn't make sense to c/r turn with 33 there at all and turning your hand into a bluff. So really he has to have some random unpaired hand that he wants to bluff with, and I don't think he is making very many smooth calls from the BB with unpaired hands to a button raise in general. So IMO this is a fold. I like a flop bet though since most of BBs range is pocket pairs and I'd imagine the only value we're going to get out of him is by betting the flop before an overcard comes and kills our action / beats us.

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Originally Posted by aislephive

Preflop stats don't lend too much information to how light somebody 3 bets, FWIW.

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I think that the gap between vpip and pfr is semi-indicative of threebetting frequency.

One good regular on stars 100nl is about 16/15, which means he is pretty much never coldcalling and is a threebet or fold type. A player on ft 100nl i know is 25/12, and he pretty much always coldcalls with AQ and JJ, and really doesn't threebet much.

yeah kinda same theme as what Renton said in response to Aisle :

if you're only coldcalling 5% of your hands preflop, is it likely these include 1010+??? Seems like the math makes it very unlikely.

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Originally Posted by Renton

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Originally Posted by aislephive

Preflop stats don't lend too much information to how light somebody 3 bets, FWIW.

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I think that the gap between vpip and pfr is semi-indicative of threebetting frequency.

One good regular on stars 100nl is about 16/15, which means he is pretty much never coldcalling and is a threebet or fold type. A player on ft 100nl i know is 25/12, and he pretty much always coldcalls with AQ and JJ, and really doesn't threebet much.

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Yeah like I said, it does to an extent tell if somebody is more likely to 3 bet than just call, but not always, and it doesn't say much about somebody's range nessicarilly. If somebody is 22/20 they probably 3 bet light and often, but there are quite a few 20/15 players who 3 bet lightly and others that don't, FWIW. Also, a lot of 60/30 fish like to open raise a lot but in general don't three bet preflop without big hands despite their high PFR.