Facing push..Is this close.. or auto fold?

Villain is at 25/14/2.2 over reasonably small sample, only about 200 hands...

Villain is on a few of my tables, and has probably noticed me raising quite a bit, and then folding to players pushing back over me, or raising over my raises.

I put villain on an over-pair, or over cards (AK). I don't see him pushing a set in this spot.

Is this a close call?.. auto-call? or fold?

(oh and yes I realize Im playing short in this hand, I had just lost the previous hand and didn't get a chance to top up before this hand started)


Cryptologic
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $116.75
UTG+1: $100
CO: $111.75
Button: $206.75
Hero: $66.75
BB: $96

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is SB with :5s: :5d:
3 folds, Button raises to $3, Hero calls, BB folds.

Flop: :6d: :7c: :4h: ($7, 2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $4, Hero raises to $12, Button raises all-in $203.75, Hero ?? ($51.75 to call, with $82.75 in pot already)

I put villain's range at 44 and 66+. If this is the case, according to Pokerstove your equity is 35%. Though you did say you didn't think a set would push, I added it anyways because you never know. If you are adament on him not having a set, then you are still only at 36% equity for 88+. Your allin would be 63% of the pot. I believe this to be a fold. I'm not smart but thought I'd give it a shot anyways.

I think kmind's right on except the allin should be about 52/184 instead of 64% (gotta add hero's call to the pot size), so it's close but you are probably priced in to call.

btw, if you think he might raise a lead from you with garbage, it would've been better to lead then 3bet all in. or if he's weak/passive you could just check-call.

Yeah...knew I forgot something...thanks, benny.

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Originally Posted by benny999

I think kmind's right on except the allin should be about 52/184 instead of 64% (gotta add hero's call to the pot size), so it's close but you are probably priced in to call.

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When I said I had 51.75 to call in a 82.75 pot, the 82.75 actually included villains call, and villain's raise up to 51.75 (which is all that I can meet). So assuming that this is the case, am I no longer priced in to call? (51.75/134.5 = 0.38)

I was pretty sure that any 8,3 or 5 were safe outs for me (10 outs), so I figured I had about 40% chance of hitting, hence I was wondering how thin a call would be here..

Thanks for the help so far guys!

I fold.

don't check raise flop

calling or folding to the push is trivial

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Originally Posted by nutsinho

don't check raise flop

calling or folding to the push is trivial

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Why don't you c/r the flop?

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Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

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Originally Posted by nutsinho

don't check raise flop

calling or folding to the push is trivial

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Why don't you c/r the flop?

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because its so obviouly a draw or weak hand. Would you c/r a set here? Answer: no.

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Originally Posted by Miffed22001

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Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

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Originally Posted by nutsinho

don't check raise flop

calling or folding to the push is trivial

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Why don't you c/r the flop?

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because its so obviouly a draw or weak hand. Would you c/r a set here? Answer: no.

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Hmm... am I missing something here? I think I would/might check raise a set here! Are you saying that we should lead a set, as opposed to check raising a set?

You're claiming that a check raise seems weak, whereas I would associate a check-raise out of position as a strong play ....

I'd appreciate a further explanation, since my logic is clearly the opposite of a few posters so far.

when i c/r the flop, I either have a) complete air, b) a very strong draw im happy to get all in with, or c) a very strong hand im happy to get all in with

I don't like doing it with 55 here because a) he's going to fold all worse hands and scarcely fold better hands, b) im creating a big pot out of position where the turn is probably going to bring a painful decision and c) if im ahead ill probably find out cheaply and if im not ill probably get to the river for a decent price and i may even have some implied odds

Edit: oops, i wrote part 2a backwards

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Originally Posted by nutsinho

when i c/r the flop, I either have a) complete air, b) a very strong draw im happy to get all in with, or c) a very strong hand im happy to get all in with

I don't like doing it with 55 here because a) he's going to fold all better hands and scarcely fold worse hands, b) im creating a big pot out of position where the turn is probably going to bring a painful decision and c) if im ahead ill probably find out cheaply and if im not ill probably get to the river for a decent price and i may even have some implied odds

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very good post imo.

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Originally Posted by benny999

very good post imo.

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The solution to these spots is not what to do when you get in them. It probably doesn't even matter much. It's how to get into them less often.

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Originally Posted by benny999

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Originally Posted by nutsinho

when i c/r the flop, I either have a) complete air, b) a very strong draw im happy to get all in with, or c) a very strong hand im happy to get all in with

I don't like doing it with 55 here because a) he's going to fold all better hands and scarcely fold worse hands, b) im creating a big pot out of position where the turn is probably going to bring a painful decision and c) if im ahead ill probably find out cheaply and if im not ill probably get to the river for a decent price and i may even have some implied odds

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very good post imo.

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I agree, very well explained nutsinho. I guess I often c/r flops to regain control of the betting, but in this case I'd probably be better off getting to showdown or the river as cheaply as possible.

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Originally Posted by Fnord

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Originally Posted by benny999

very good post imo.

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The solution to these spots is not what to do when you get in them. It probably doesn't even matter much. It's how to get into them less often.

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So how do we get into these spots less often? Leading the flop? so we can be the player that pushes, as opposed to villain?