Count the leaks

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01-09-2007, 02:05 PM
IowaSkinsFan

Count the leaks

This hand I played retardely.. I probably should fold preflop but calling on the button is fine right even though its a little loosey goosey? Should I just muck the flop? What's your line?

PokerStars Game #7834471153: Hold'em No Limit ($0.25/$0.50) - 2007/01/08 - 17:22:08 (ET)
Table 'Zwetana' 6-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: legends14 ($77.45 in chips)
Seat 2: Niid4Wiid ($77.15 in chips)
Seat 3: kabutze ($60.45 in chips)
Seat 4: redgrape ($49.25 in chips)
Seat 5: drwn'dead ($65.35 in chips)
Seat 6: Pullfinger ($59 in chips)
drwn'dead: posts small blind $0.25
Pullfinger: posts big blind $0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to redgrape [Td 9h]
legends14: calls $0.50
Niid4Wiid: raises $1.50 to $2
kabutze: calls $2
redgrape: calls $2
drwn'dead: folds
Pullfinger: folds
legends14: calls $1.50
*** FLOP *** [9s Th Qd]
legends14: checks
Niid4Wiid: checks
kabutze: bets $6.50
redgrape: raises $15 to $21.50
legends14: folds
Niid4Wiid: folds
kabutze: raises $36.95 to $58.45 and is all-in
redgrape: folds
kabutze collected $49.20 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $51.75 | Rake $2.55
Board [9s Th Qd]
Seat 1: legends14 folded on the Flop
Seat 2: Niid4Wiid folded on the Flop
Seat 3: kabutze collected ($49.20)
Seat 4: redgrape (button) folded on the Flop
Seat 5: drwn'dead (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 6: Pullfinger (big blind) folded before Flop
01-09-2007, 02:10 PM
Galapogos

I don't think this is bad. It's your use of the phrase "loosey goosey" that I find more disturbing.
01-09-2007, 02:23 PM
Renton

i might felt this, but its pretty close, no read?

As an aside, why do i catch mountains of shit from everyone whenever i post a hand without reads when most people do the same thing? :)
01-09-2007, 02:28 PM
ihategnomes

Cause you dont give us enough time to chastize for not giving a read. :D Im probably not going to the felt here without a serious read.
01-09-2007, 02:43 PM
swiggidy

Fold. I can't imagine someone pushing something we beat. Would AQ, AJ, QJ? Maybe AA/KK? It's awfully picky, but raise a little less on the flop. It'll save a couple bb.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Renton

As an aside, why do i catch mountains of shit from everyone whenever i post a hand without reads when most people do the same thing? :)

I feel <100NL most hands play themselves with a read. It's the hands that with "experience" become standard that I'm still working on. Just my thought.
01-09-2007, 02:45 PM
Miffed22001

pretty standard IMO. Nice fold.
01-09-2007, 02:48 PM
ihategnomes

Quote:

but raise a little less on the flop.

Good call, I was going to mention that but forgot.
01-09-2007, 02:48 PM
cardsman1992

I posted a hand where I got stacked with bottom two and people said it was horrible. What is the difference? Action was similar.....

FWIW, I probably fold flop now. Any merit to calling and seeing a turn?
01-09-2007, 02:51 PM
ihategnomes

Quote:

I posted a hand where I got stacked with bottom two and people said it was horrible. What is the difference? Action was similar.....

Nothing in poker is static. We are saying ni hand cause he folded, that was the difference.
01-09-2007, 02:53 PM
cardsman1992

I was speaking to Renton's idea to felt it. Meant to attach the quote...sorry....
01-09-2007, 02:54 PM
ihategnomes

Got a link to the post so I can see?
01-09-2007, 03:04 PM
cardsman1992

http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...978&highlight=

Here it is. Looking back, the action was different. The part I thought was bad in my hand though, was being willing to get stacked with bottom two. I would think it would be bad in this hand as well.
01-09-2007, 03:04 PM
griffey24

Quote:

Originally Posted by swiggidy

Fold. I can't imagine someone pushing something we beat. Would AQ, AJ, QJ? Maybe AA/KK? It's awfully picky, but raise a little less on the flop. It'll save a couple bb.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Miffed22001

pretty standard IMO. Nice fold.

Wow.. I think I need to learn to fold more! My thinking was with renton here, that I might felt this.

I can see QJ, or AQ potentially doing this, along with AA/KK. KJ certainly, but we have re-draw outs against the straight.

We have half our stack essentially in the middle... need to call 28 more into a 79 pot.. so we need to win here 26% of the time.. I can see a fold for sure, if the stacks are deeper, but with half our stack in the middle and the pot so big, we're almost committed?

Somebody just smack me and tell me I need to learn to fold, if I'm way off in thinking that felting here might not be half bad...
01-09-2007, 03:10 PM
swiggidy

Quote:

Originally Posted by cardsman1992

I was speaking to Renton's idea to felt it. Meant to attach the quote...sorry....

hope this doesn't turn into a hi-jack, but ...

http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...hlight=#440514

differences:
1) You open limped/called so your hand looks weaker
2) You're OOP
3) The board is connected at the top instead of bottom. KQ and KT are more likely hands than QT and Q9
4) There is a Flush draw that hurts fold equity
5) In your favor you pushed all-in, not called

also you had one person say "never" and there is one person in this thread saying "maybe". I would be happy getting bottom 2pair all-in on a 67J flop against some villains.

{Bah beat me too it}
01-09-2007, 03:24 PM
cardsman1992

The idea I took from this, is not to get stacked with bottom two. I try not to now, based on that advice. I would have applied it here too.

Now, to the next question, do you think there is enough behind to call and get his stack if you hit?
01-09-2007, 03:28 PM
swiggidy

Quote:

Originally Posted by griffey24

Wow.. I think I need to learn to fold more! My thinking was with renton here, that I might felt this.

We have half our stack essentially in the middle... need to call 28 more into a 79 pot.. so we need to win here 26% of the time..

Somebody just smack me and tell me I need to learn to fold, if I'm way off in thinking that felting here might not be half bad...

79/28 = 35%

having 40% (or even 50%) of your pot in the middle in cash does not mean you are committed, that line of thinking is bad

Including only hands we are behind and JJ/AQ...

Code:

Board: 9s Th Qd equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 66.030% 65.15% 00.88% 29025 391.50 { QQ-99, AQs, KJs, QTs, AQo, KJo, QTo } Hand 1: 33.970% 33.09% 00.88% 14742 391.50 { Td9h }

If you replace AQ with QJ it's even worse
01-09-2007, 03:32 PM
IowaSkinsFan

I felt like I shoulda raised less on the flop was my big issue with the hand. I may have even thought people would say fold the flop, I mean really how many hands here are leading out with something I'm beating? not too much. I think the fold is easy.
01-09-2007, 03:34 PM
swiggidy

^^ I think TJ, QJ, AJ, AQ all bet that flop so I'm ok with a raise

Quote:

Originally Posted by cardsman1992

Now, to the next question, do you think there is enough behind to call and get his stack if you hit?

I'm assuming you mean your post (although it applies to both). No.

You have 4 outs, you have to assume you will get bet at on the turn again so ~8%, you need 12x minimum. Since that's his stack and sometimes you loose (KK, etc), sometimes he folds you don't have implied odds.
01-09-2007, 03:39 PM
cardsman1992

I was talking more about this particular hand, so you answered my question. I thought it was close. My hand I was trying to show a strong line (set or similar) and get a fold in a pot where I had no fold equity. Horrible hand by me.
01-09-2007, 03:43 PM
griffey24

Quote:

Originally Posted by swiggidy

79/28 = 35%

umm.. isn't it 29/(78+29) = 0.26 ?..

hmmm.. in which clase, given your poker stove numbers, its certainly close.. but sure, I can see how in general with no reads and being in this spot, bottom two isn't the place you want to felt necessarily.
01-09-2007, 03:45 PM
Renton

the biggest thing that makes me want to fold here is that we are dead when behind and only like a 65/35 when ahead
01-09-2007, 03:53 PM
swiggidy

Quote:

Originally Posted by griffey24

Quote:

Originally Posted by swiggidy

79/28 = 35%

umm.. isn't it 29/(78+29) = 0.26 ?..

No, you are risking 28 to win 79. You don't "win" the 29 you bet.

If the pot was 78 and you pushed 29, then the you would add the 29 that the villain would have to call.
01-09-2007, 06:23 PM
griffey24

Quote:

Originally Posted by swiggidy

Quote:

Originally Posted by griffey24

Quote:

Originally Posted by swiggidy

79/28 = 35%

umm.. isn't it 29/(78+29) = 0.26 ?..

No, you are risking 28 to win 79. You don't "win" the 29 you bet.

If the pot was 78 and you pushed 29, then the you would add the 29 that the villain would have to call.

lol.. hoooold on a second. sorry for the momentary hijack Iowa, but if i'm wrong, swiggidy is about to break my fundamental understanding of pot odds! lol... and I will cry...

I'm pretty sure my calculation was correct.

If the pot is 1. Villain pushes 1, and we need to call 1. Then we are being laid 2:1 odds, but we need to win at least 1/(2+1) percent, or 33% of the time to warrant a call.

In this case, we are being laid approximately 78:29 odds. So we need to win at least 29/(78+29) percent of the time (approx 27%), to warrant a break-even call.

EV =( .27)(78) + (.73)(-29) = 21.14 - 21.14 = 0

Somebody please tell me that I'm not wrong here.. lol. ..
01-09-2007, 06:59 PM
swiggidy

damn, brain fart, nh

given 27%, the best realistic situation (I don't think AQ pushes flop here). Hands that beat us +QJ, I really can't see KK/AA calling pre-flop

Code:

Board: 9s Th Qd equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 25.057% 24.04% 01.02% 9282 392.50 { Td9h } Hand 1: 74.943% 73.93% 01.02% 28543 392.50 { QQ, TT-99, KJs, QTs+, KJo, QTo+ }

If you put AA or KK in the range it becomes a call, I'm not sure if you can. This is a remarkably thin situation.
01-09-2007, 07:07 PM
Renton

Quote:

Originally Posted by swiggidy

I really can't see KK/AA calling pre-flop.

this is a very strong and probably incorrect assumption

i would put those hands in his range def.