Borderline play...

MidnightTokr is 28/21 over 120 or so hands. I have been three-betting him a lot preflop. He's definitely noticed, although he hasn't done anything like this yet. I think he's very capable of having only a J here, so i think theres a solid chance a K is also an out.

i thought my odds were about 1.7:1 when i called. Using a calculator, i estimated that i'd need 41% equity to call. vs AJ i'm 39% to win. This is -EV if this was the last hand i played with him. However, I feel like deepstacked i have a big edge against this guy.


POKERSTARS GAME #7963956849: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($0.50/$1.00) - 2007/01/16 - 02:23:02 (ET)
Table 'Erriapo V' 6-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: redgrape ($116.10 in chips)
Seat 2: Cracka233 ($37.10 in chips)
Seat 3: MidnightTokr ($391.50 in chips)
Seat 6: ospeaucoeur ($82.40 in chips)
redgrape: posts small blind $0.50
Cracka233: posts big blind $1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to redgrape [Kd 9h]
MidnightTokr: raises $3 to $4
ospeaucoeur: folds
redgrape: raises $8 to $12
Cracka233: folds
MidnightTokr: calls $8
*** FLOP *** [Th 7s Jc]
redgrape: bets $18
MidnightTokr: raises $361.50 to $379.50 and is all-in
redgrape: calls $86.10 and is all-in

really my question is, do you believe you should make a marginally -EV play to become deepstacked which would be More +EV later?

I'd recommend playing poker and making money through good decisions, and then using your resulting deep stack, rather than trying to suck out getting bad odds with what you know is the worst hand.

meh. He has to be bluffing much more than he has 2p/set for it to be even marginally-EV. Still those double belly busters are kewl.

I think your "win more later deepstacked" justification is flawed, because at most you only get 1 extra buy-in off him... then he's no longer deepstacked (since if you double trhough now you will both be at ~200). I don't think your additional edge playing 200BB stacks (as opposed to 100BB) can really be THAT good, do you? Plus AT BEST 40% of the time, you just donate $$ to him.

why is becoming deepstacked vs a non-terrible opponent so +ev?

28/21 and very aggressive isn't enough?

if you bet more on flop then you get better odds when he pushes, and maybe he pushes less hands