tough spot with top two

Villain is 20/6/3.5 over 150 hands.....is he protecting a set, drawing, what????? Reraise flop? Fold flop?

Full Tilt Poker
$0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game
7 Players
LegoPoker Hand Converter

Stack Sizes
Hero (UTG): $109.40
UTG+1: $62.80
MP1: $68.60
MP2: $234.30
BTN: $90.60
SB: $100.35
BB: $105.95

Preflop: K:diamond: A:heart: ($1.5, 7 players)
Hero raises to $4, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, BTN folds, SB calls $3.50, BB folds

Flop: K:spade: 7:diamond: A:spade: ($9, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $6, SB raises to $18, Hero calls $12

Turn: K:spade: 7:diamond: A:spade: [J:diamond:] ($45, 2 players)
SB bets $27, Hero pukes, then..........

Either SB has AK or 77. Tough call. I move all-in on the turn. If SB has a set of 77, I still have 6 outs.

i think i would 3-bet this on the flop. As played i think i call down.

Why would you move allin if you put him on 77? He's not folding and 6 outs = ~13% to win? BTW if sb had A7 or AJ (only hands you could hope for), I don't think he'd bet that small on the turn. Reeeeeeeeeel 'em in. You're gettin 4 to one, with 7-8 to one to boat up... if villain stacks off on any/all ace / king river and you don't pay him off when you miss the call could be marginally positive.

I'd call and see what happens river, you've got position on him. yeah call im down

I call.

Okay, river is Qd, and villain leads for the last $51, easy fold getting 3:1?

Very tough spot to be in. I hate it. I call because of the pot odds offered. It is quite possible that SB has us beat or the pot is split.
What was the result? I would like to know. Thanks.

I called for the same reason....odds. But thinking about it more, we are likely beat 90% of the time here. He flipped JTclubs and MHING. No way do I put him on that hand. I would think any hand with a J would have folded flop. Same with any hand with a Q, even QQ....only thing that made sense was diamond draw.

I made a note that he will check raise with a gutshot draw.

I hate to reraise with two pair because I suck at playing it anyway, two pair is by far my biggest loser of "good" hands. I should have here, but I think he was prepared to felt this draw.

Thoughts?

He c/r'ed a gutshot, second-barreled it and hit a 6-outer on the river. Buddy list him.

I was going to chime in earlier in this thread but I couldn't make up my mind. I generally play good hands hard and fast (i.e. 3-bet this flop to ~$40), esp with draws on the board, but you're in position and he could easily have a weaker ace, so I don't hate the flop call. The turn bet makes me think AK/AJ/KJ/77, maybe still a flush draw. Again I'm tempted to raise here. Might be a better spot b/c you're still getting value from worse hands. River I puke and call. The only hand you're losing to that makes sense is 77.

Tough hand.

without reading results this is an easy reraise/push on flop considering how many combo draw type hands opp could have.
Im happy gambOOling against a range here.

Zook, if you three bet, are you prepared to felt it, or can you let it go to a push. If he calls, easy check behind on turn?

Miffed, what is your preferred two pair line on both drawy and non drawy boards (ie A8 on A83 rainbow)? I need some serious help with two pair, although I think a lot of these losing hands if I look at them in my database are overpairs on paired boards.......

Quote:

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Originally Posted by cardsman1992

Zook, if you three bet, are you prepared to felt it, or can you let it go to a push. If he calls, easy check behind on turn?

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I'm prepared to felt it. You're only realistically behind 77 here.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by zook

Quote:

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Originally Posted by cardsman1992

Zook, if you three bet, are you prepared to felt it, or can you let it go to a push. If he calls, easy check behind on turn?

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I'm prepared to felt it. You're only realistically behind 77 here.

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agreed. If the board is horrible and your hand is the top end of what id term 'lukewarm strong' (Top two, top and bottom two pair etc) then id be forced to felt it.
Sure, 777 is really likely given the action but so might be hands like A5sooted tp+FD, QJs/KQs combo draws. If opp is only ever raising a set here then sure you can find a fold, i just think you have to accept that felting top two against an average/bad player when the board is draw heavy and running into a set occasionally is an acceptable way to get stacked/lose money where doing anything otherwise is probably -ev.

On a non-draw board we realistically shouldnt be stacking off with top two without a really good reason (i.e our opp stacks off light, we have a horrible image)
Fwiw, i can stack off with top two a lot because i tend to have a semi-horrible image. For a TAGGY player that isnt necessarily true.

This really, really doesn't look like a draw. *maybe* a semi-bluff raise on the flop, but when called he bets 1/2 pot on a blank? On a board that certainly hit you? I don't really see even AQ playing like this. This is AA/KK/AK/77... if it's a draw, it's a monster, QJs or JTs with a combo draw? QTs?

Note that AK is only twice as likely as AA/KK (and with a 20/6 there's no guarentee he 3-bets PF).

I discount a draw, because (unless it's a QT that hit the turn, how can he bet so little?)

After all that, I don't know if I can fold top two here. I think I might just call and hope he makes a mistake on the river (e.g, by not betting).

I would fold and instead wait until I'm in this spot with AA or at least KK.