400NL oop bluff line-check

Villain is a multi-tabling aggro nit regular, 13/8/5.5 over a shit ton of hands. He c-bets everytime, so I did a stupid oop float. After his turn call I put him on AK/AQ/AJ, maybe small chance of KQ. I think he's capable of folding AQ/AJ/KQ, not sure about AK. My image is not the greatest, but he's folded to my aggression before...

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Holdem Ring game - Blinds: $2/$4 - 8 players - Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $417.50
UTG+1: $562.80
MP1: $290.30
MP2: $84
CO: $874.10
Button: $415.20
Hero: $477
BB: $413.25

Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is SB with 8 :club: 8 :diamond:
4 folds, CO raises to $14, Button folds, Hero calls, BB folds.

Flop: 7 :diamond: A :spade: 2 :heart: ($32, 2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $22, Hero calls.

Turn: K :heart: ($76, 2 players)
Hero bets $50, CO calls.

River: T :diamond: ($176, 2 players)
Hero bets $120

I think his turn call means:
I have A-x, A-10+, i have a set, or i have K-10+

i think he is raising with a weak hand on the turn; i highly doubt a call/raise on the turn and river for a bluff line by villain.

I would check the river, without going into an in depth analyzation of the hand.

Villain isn't going to fold two pair (A-K, A-10, K-10 most likely two pairs), though he would probably fold A-J, A-Q, A-x. He will also probably fold K-Q, K-J. He isn't folding sets either (A-A, 7-7, 2-2, very rarely K-K), though he will save you some face by raising the river and you can avoid showing down a bluff :wink: .

It is a close decision (due to the number of two pair/set hands vs. one pair hands), so time to make some EV analysis.

With a bet of $120 in the $176 pot,

Villain will fold his one pair hands lets say 100% (due to his nittiness)
Those hands comprise ~40% of his range.

Hero bets $120, villain folds, Hero wins $176

He will always call/raise with two pair/set type hands. You will never lose more than $120 (since you fold or it goes to SD obv). These hands make up ~60% of his range.

Hero bets $120, villain calls/raises, Hero loses/folds. Hero loses $120.

($176 x .40) + (-$120 x .60)
$70.4 + -$72 = $-1.6.

Definitely close, but it looks like you should generally check this hand, since the looser the player gets the more likely he is to call with a one pair type of hand.