Thin river value raise vs. loose passive?

Villain is 29/3/0.7 over 300 hands, mostly mined. No notes, no idea how he got his stack.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Hero ($214.85)
MP ($206.15)
CO ($304.95)
Button ($70.95)
SB ($36.10)
BB ($489.60)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif.
Hero raises to $7, 4 folds, BB calls $5.

Flop: ($15) 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $13, BB calls $13.

Turn: ($41) Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.

River: ($41) 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif (2 players)
BB bets $16, Hero...

if he's bluffing his missed flush draw, he wont call a raise, if he has a J he'll 3bet most likely, but either way raising does nothing to increase your profit on the hand. Show it down.

The only hand you will get value from (maybe) is something like A8s.

-Chris

call

That looks like a bet that trying to induce a raise or push.

What do you think would call a raise that you beat?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Galapogos

What do you think would call a raise that you beat?

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QQ/TT/99 maybe even worse 2pr that think I'm FoS. The guy's stats say calling station and I haven't repped much.

call

if you'll fold to any 3bet save a min-raise, then you can bump it to 45 i suppose... but im still against it :P

-Chris

Quote:

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Originally Posted by zook

QQ/TT/99 maybe even worse 2pr that think I'm FoS.

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The vast majority of his range is unpaired hole cards.

If you want to take him to value-town I'd rather bet the turn than raise the river.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by zook

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Galapogos

What do you think would call a raise that you beat?

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QQ/TT/99 maybe even worse 2pr that think I'm FoS. The guy's stats say calling station and I haven't repped much.

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If he's that kind of calling station I can nderstand your logic, but even then, I still think your beat. Would a guy with a 0.7 aggression factor bet into you with a hand that he believes has some showdown value? I really don't think so. If he checked a bet is in order, but this guy isn't usually the type to bet 99 into you on this board.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Galapogos

If he's that kind of calling station I can nderstand your logic, but even then, I still think your beat. Would a guy with a 0.7 aggression factor bet into you with a hand that he believes has some showdown value? I really don't think so. If he checked a bet is in order, but this guy isn't usually the type to bet 99 into you on this board.

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You (and everyone else) are right. QQ is really the only hand I beat that might bet this river and call a raise.

For the results oriented:
I raised to $40, villain insta-called with AA. el oh el.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mcatdog

If you want to take him to value-town I'd rather bet the turn than raise the river.

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ya, loose passive calls that turn with most pairs and draws, and easy fold if they do the insta check-minraise.

bet turn, as played call river

if he checks are we betting 30ish on the river?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by phantom_lord

if he checks are we betting 30ish on the river?

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sounds about right

there are a few types of opp who if they are htinking and have seen you check draws frequently/raise blocking bets are going to call a big river raise here. the more i think abut it the more i like a raise to 60 or somethin against certain opp

Good spot to raise to 50ish if he's not likely to 3-bet bluff

Calling is fine too.