Please critique this play
Ok, so I was running great last night in the FTOPS event #4 $1000+ 60 NL hold 'em tourney. 40th in chips with 130 people remaining (0ut of 960). Stack = 21000, blinds 300-600, antes 50. Starting pot 1350.
The situation:
Dealer +2 raises to 1900 (He has about 10,000 chips). SB calls (25,000 chips). I have A-Tc in the bb. I call. Flop 4d-7h-Qc. Checks all around. Jc comes off on the turn. SB checks, I bet 4000 into 6000 pot, original raiser folds, SB calls. 2d comes off on the river. SB checks, I bet 7000 into 14000 pot. He insta-calls with 8-8. He called so fast I think he had the "call any" box checked before I even bet. Needless to say this shook me up quite a bit. I had an extremely tight table image, as I had gone about 3 revolutions without playing a hand because of a really dead run of cards. I felt like my turn bet represented a value bet (i.e. J-T out of the bb, etc), and not a semi-bluff. Needless to say, I was left crippled with 7000 chips, and busted a short time later when I pushed 8-8 vs. KQ and lost the race. Can anyone see a flaw in my betting pattern there? I really feel like if his cards were turned face up on the table I probably would've played it exactly the same way. He had the type of hand I pegged him for.........and I'm left wondering if his read was just that good or if for some reason he just couldn't muck 8-8.
I would appreciate any feedback! Thanks.
Re: Please critique this play
Do you play 1k MTTs regularly or did you win a satellite? I think at 1k, you should be able to figure out this call... :?
Your turn bet tells your opponent that:
1. You are trying to steal the pot
2. You are semi-bluffing
3. You are value betting the jack
If 1, then 88 is still ahead, if 2, then 88 is also still ahead. But most importantly, if 3, a solid player would usually NOT value bet JT 1/2 pot on the river (you should know why).
Given all this, don't you think there is at least 25% chance that you are bluffing? Because if the likelyhood of a bluff is at least 25%, he should call. Here I would say the likelyhood of a bluff is more like 75%. In other words, instacall.
Re: Please critique this play
Quote:
Originally Posted by pocketfours
a solid player would usually NOT value bet JT 1/2 pot on the river (you should know why).
Better hands call, worse hands fold.. right?