Tough spot with tptk, nut flush draw (100nl)

What would you have done here? marmstr1 is running 42/12/1.85 leila is running 21/8/1 but it is a small sample size of about 30 hands for both of them so take it with a grain of salt and from what ive been seeing, theyre both pretty reckless and bad.

Hold'em No Limit ($0.50/$1.00) - 2007-06-16 18:42:38
Table 'Caledonia (max 6)' 6-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: rocket54 ($200.25)
Seat 2: Laila78 ($200.50)
Seat 3: marmstr1 ($75.27)
Seat 4: Carlos36 ($135.75)
Seat 5: captivate ($175.49)
Seat 6: Hero ($111.50)
------------------------------
NEW HAND
marmstr1: posts the small blind $0.50
Carlos36: posts the big blind $1.00
--- DEALING POCKETS
Hero is dealt [Jc,As]
captivate: folds
Hero: raises $3.00 to $4.00
rocket54: calls $4.00
Laila78: calls $4.00
marmstr1: calls $3.50
Carlos36: folds
--- DEALING FLOP [5s,2s,Js]
marmstr1: checks
Hero: bets $12.50
rocket54: folds
Laila78: goes all in $196.50
marmstr1: goes all in $71.27
Hero:...???

interesting hand.
i'm gonna say cry and push...

ok, now that i've made my decision, let's see if i'm right. wooohoo, me so smart...

Code:

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Hand 0:        32.691%          32.69%        00.00%                  8856                0.00  { AsJc }
Hand 1:        33.654%          33.65%        00.00%                  9117                0.00  { JJ, 55, 22 }
Hand 2:        33.654%          33.65%        00.00%                  9117                0.00  { JJ, 55, 22 }

Hand 0:        30.265%          30.27%        00.00%                  38808                0.00  { AsJc }
Hand 1:        21.326%          21.33%        00.00%                  27345                0.00  { JJ, 55, 22, 43s, 43o }
Hand 2:        48.409%          48.41%        00.00%                  62073                0.00  { JJ, 55, 22 }

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the key to this hand was because there are 2 guys all in already, so you're pretty much getting 2:1 odds, so anywhere around 33% is breaking even. worst case scenario appears to hover around 30%.

I have to fold. You are up against a set for sure.
You have to hope to hit your flush without someone boating up.

Call because of your stack size and the 3-way pot being big.
Just notice that you don't have 9 outs for your flush draw because someone could already have the flush, or being on a draw like you.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by |~|ypermegachi

the key to this hand was because there are 2 guys all in already, so you're pretty much getting 2:1 odds, so anywhere around 33% is breaking even. worst case scenario appears to hover around 30%.

---

You don't have odds to call actually.. worst case scenario, which is also rather likely:

villain 1: KsQs (made flush)
villain 2: 22 (any set)

your equity: 25%

Because of stack sizes your offered 1:3

Jack's right, you have to put a made flush into their ranges too, which takes away your outs.

I don't expect villain 1 to have a flush, because he wouldn't push the flop this hard imo...he could have a set though, or JKs.
Villain 2 could have a made flush, draw, set, hell maybe even top pair.

I expect hero to have 7 clean outs, with 1:3 pot odds thats a call...even 6 would be enough.

Laila has set of fives
marmstr has Q high flush

fold! pie is right u ent even got 9 outs, its lookin more like 5 or 6. nd u definitely dont have the best hand now..ur top pair is worthless now nd it will b after the river (unless u can catch runnin quads..u b lucky).

u have to hit ur flush 2 win nd ur not gettin the odds to do so.

I find it hard to fold this vs. 2 donks. Not saying it's a call - but people can get spewy with stuff like TTs on this board.

this sucks real bad tho the fact that u have a jack is actually negative because it means there are less jacks out and one of ur opp is less likely to be overplaying QsJx or something

If your read is right and they're spewy idiots, I'm sticking my money in. I think the hand we're most worried about is the shorty.

heh interesting results, i still think they are both spewy donks from playing with them later but still, here are the results: :

:(
Hero: goes all in $95.00
$89.00 is not called, return back to Laila78:
Laila78: shows [7s,4s], a Flush
marmstr1: shows [Qs,9s], a Flush
--- DEALING TURN [2h]
--- DEALING RIVER [Ac]
Hero: shows [Jc,As], Two Pair, Aces and Jacks
Laila78: shows [7s,4s], a Flush
marmstr1: shows [Qs,9s], a Flush
Hand 763247729:
Laila78: wins side pot($71.74)
with a Flush
Hand 763247729:
marmstr1: wins main pot($228.53)
with a Flush

maybe im being results oriented but upon reflection, out of the moment although it is tempting, i think this is a fold, as we are clearly dead to a spade, and theres a good chance they are holding some of our outs.

Edit: sp

id call, your hand is sweet and lots of money in pot

You are results oriented, beeing op against 2 flopped fushes happens about never.
I'm still not convinced villain doesn't have at least 6 clean outs, which makes this a pretty easy call.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by minSim

You are results oriented, beeing op against 2 flopped fushes happens about never.
I'm still not convinced villain doesn't have at least 6 clean outs, which makes this a pretty easy call.

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Equity against 2 flushes or against flush + set is exactly the same, 24.5%.

total pot to win if we call is: 17 (preflop) + 71,27 (marmstr) + 107,5 (laila) + 107,5 (you) = 303,27

you have to call 95 to win this pot, or 95/303.27=31.3%

(to avoid confusion since I'm using percentages, the other way to calculate this would be: chance to win is 1:3, and pot odds are 95:208,27= 1:2.2)

So you do not have odds to call vs 2xflush or flush+set.

Imo this isn't ALWAYS 2 made flushes or made flush + set. KsJ, QQs, AJ? could be in it, shorty could have even more.