AA hand vs TAGG

I don't have a lot of history with Royalsu, my only note is that i saw him 3-bet a Flush Draw on an A high flop before. His AF in my PT is around 2, and he's not aggro on the flop. He's running 18/13.

My image is loose and aggressive. He hasn't seen my get out of line probably. He may know that i two barrel occassionally.

Here's the hand:
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP ($193.10)
CO ($261.60)
Button ($199.70)
SB ($310.70)
BB ($61.40)
Hero ($290.80)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif.
Hero raises to $8, 3 folds, SB calls $7, 1 fold.

Flop: ($18) Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, 4http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, Thttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $14, SB calls $14.

Turn: ($46) 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $32, SB raises to $100, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $178

I'm curious what you think he had. The only things that i can think of him having are 45, 44, or TT. However, i feel that this line is very strange because:

A. He probably doesn't have a Flush Draw because i saw him 3-bet it on a similar board before
B. a King would probably check call again
C. a Set would probably c/r the flop or lead it because we are deep and the board is semi drawish.

I tanked on this hand and was close to pushing, but i did not because it didn't seem like a good place to bluff from his point of view.

What do you think. At higher stakes this is probably an easy push but at 1/2 bluffs like this are not prominent (IMO).

Hand history is borked.

fixed... sigh, i hate the converter sometimes.

I've played big draws like this, but often get called a donk for it ;-)

Could be AK protecting his hand. Interesting that neither of your Aces match the possible flush draws.

Yeah, you stepped in this one good.

Yeah good hand.
If I had to 'put him' on 1 specific hand given the way you described his play I'd say QhJh.

& I'm usually a nit about folding 1 pair hands but with AA I dont feel bad if I push here as the board is so draw heavy on turn, (& you've seen him play flush draws aggressive albeit on flop.) he could have such a wide range that you're ahead of + dead money.
(& I think as you said he should raise any other hand that beats you 75-80% time on that flop & the 5 isnt really a scare card except to 4,5)

Tough though...

ya QJhh makes sense. sorta a stretch but could be KQ/AK seeing where they're at.

but a set seems pretty likely. doesnt really look like a draw with that line.
sick play if he had a hand u beat. not sure i could fold.

stop posting on my account on my comp Danny. It's confusing

i really doubt 55 calls the flop from this opp.
and ya sets will often raise the flop, but with ur image, hey may c/c then c/r, since u prob double barrel wider.
same time, draw seems about as likely, which is why i like his line.

I'm a sucker for results and feel like a bit of one since I've gone weak/tight on the last couple bottom set posts.

How did this go down?

In my experience TAGs are much less likely to float with say 55 here when the K or A flops than when its a J,Q or T. The fact the T is there aswell makes 55 less likely. That doesnt mean he doesnt have it but Id weight it away from 55.

Regs at 200nl normally will raise the flop here with sets. Royalsu is a pretty standard reg. That being said this is more likely of a board where he wouldn't raise the flop with lets say 44.

Although it's pretty safe to say his range on the flop is heavily weighted towards a draw (he didn't raise the flop and he called an UTG raise OTB). Your turn bet size is fine.

Now lets think of what royalsu puts you on.

Really you either have a one pair hand that will fold to a turn raise a good amount or a set. It's reasonable to think that he thought he had more FE with this line with some sort of draw, OR more likely picked up a stronger draw on the turn and decided to turn it into a bluff.

My range for him is 60% draw, 30%44 or TT, and 10% 55.

Which seems to me makes it a push.

ISF, he called from SB not button.

i think from the SB vs a lag he's more likely to play "easy to play" hands like PPs, and maybe QJs/T9s type stuff.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Fnord

I'm a sucker for results and feel like a bit of one since I've gone weak/tight on the last couple bottom set posts.

How did this go down?

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idk i folded, remember?