rethinking the preflop raise size
side A: 3.5x
side B: 4.0x
i'm currently in the A camp, but i came to the realization that it might not be optimal. now, a lot of players are actually in camp A out of convenience rather than by choice, since the "bet pot" button is conveniently 3.5x, so you don't need to type anything in (likewise, most sites don't let you drag in halfs, but i'm guess this is pretty irrelevant once you get to $200NL+).
i rationalized being in camp A for the following reasons:
a) i think stealing blind success is the same for 3.5 or 4.0, so you are risking less to win the blinds.
b) it keeps the pot just a little bit smaller so when you cbet you don't need to bet a larger amount relative to the pot size.
c) if you happen to flop a great hand, you can just bet more than your usual cbet to build the pot size.
but then i realized something. most players are cold calling 99.99% the same hands vs a 3.5 raise and a 4.0 raise. and those same players will fold to a cbet with nothing.
now we have a dilemma. raising 3.5 will save you a little money those times you get raised on the flop, or you shut down on the turn. but it also forfeits a lot of profits from cbets taking the pot down.
after 50 successful cbets, that's 25bb of profit difference between raising 3.5x and 4.0x!
i'm not really sure where i'm going with this...because the raise size might be more optimal depending on the limits as well and your opponents. i'm hoping this can generate some discussion and maybe break it down statistically somehow...
let this be an inspiration to discussion, cuz currently i got nothing, and still just pondering.
