2 pairs in a really really strange shitty spot

My opponent has been with me for 90 hands, but I haven't seen much of him. From what I have seen he seems like a typically semi-tight semi-neutral semi-idiot who has read a starting hand chart (but still likes limping) and knows how to c-bet.
He's 27/6/2.2

I wanted to find a way to fold on the turn and the river, as all I could beat was AA and AQ.

But, everything he did reeked of AA, plus he kept giving me really sexy pot odds (Not pot odds as in odds to draw, but pot odds for the % of his range that was AA, which I thought was about 40%)
Maybe a flop raise was in order, but that seemed really crap and something that would mean me either getting my stack in semi-dead or him folding what I beat.



iPoker100NL, 120BB effective stacks.


Dealer: Conducius posts Small Blind $0.50
Dealer: psycholomaniac posts Big Blind $1
Dealer: Dealing cards
Dealer: Your cards :Js: :Td:
3 folds
Dealer: R3sistance raises $4
Dealer: Conducius calls $3.50
Dealer: psycholomaniac raises $9
Dealer: R3sistance calls $6
Dealer: Conducius calls $6


Dealer: Dealing Flop
:Ts: :Jc: :Qh:
Dealer: Conducius checks
Dealer: psycholomaniac bets $12
Dealer: R3sistance calls $12
Dealer: Conducius folds


Dealer: Dealing Turn
:9d:
Dealer: psycholomaniac bets $12
Dealer: R3sistance calls $12


Dealer: Dealing River
:4s:
Dealer: psycholomaniac bets $12
Dealer: R3sistance twitches slightly and calls $12

hmmm, i think i definitely raise this flop. I think we are ahead here most of the time, and if nothing else, it will tell us where we are at. Although his stats are tight, i think its pretty weak not to raise here. Also, he seems relatively tight, and as you said, he is capable of cbeting, so i wouldn't be too surprised if he folded.

So reasons to raise the flop:
-We are likely ahead
- It may tell us where we are at in the hand
- there is a good chance he will fold (capable of cbets, seems tight)

Reasons not to raise:
- we may be dominated and spewing
- What do we do if he smooth calls your flop raise? fire a second barrel? what if he calls that too? :/ Should we check the turn if our raise is called? then what if he puts in a good size bet?

I don't like the passive approach, because you have no clue where he is at. He could have a set, str8, aces, kings, etc and he will just continuously extract value from you with his crappy bets. As played after the flop, i probably do the same and call him down to the end with his small bets.

hmm so in conclusion, i think i almost always raise this flop and likely fold to a reraise. I proceed with caution but maybe second barrel if he calls.

Hmm: other notes, in my 20k hands of 100nl this month, i don't think i have had a flopped two pair cracked by a flopped set yet.. through a quick glance anyway.. i don't think most who run 27/6 will repop with ak or aq, although it is possible... hmm so this def does reek of aa and yeah Raise the flop! With that said, i think we are most likely ahead here (on the flop anyway) and i don't think i would mind getting my money in, if all else fails pray for another jack/10 :)

You have to raise this flop big 2p broadway is a very dangerous hand that often doesn't hold up because opponent is so likely to have an OESD.

I bump flop to $35.

Thanks for the responses guys, lemme do a quick experiment:

His stacking off range on the flop if we decide to get it in:
Board: Ts Jc Qh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 29.778% 28.82% 00.96% 9415 313.50 { JsTd }
Hand 1: 70.222% 69.26% 00.96% 22628 313.50 { TT+, AKs, AKo }

Pretty gay.

The thing is, doesn't a flop raise just fold out a lot of his range that we beat and force us to fold to a threebet when we are beat? It just seems like a pretty dead thing to do.

Also, I put his preflop range at TT+, AK, and basically nearly all of his preflop range has caught something on this flop, hence the defensive passive play - I thought "fuck it, I might as well get some value out of the hands I do beat". Is my range too nitty?

actually, the more I thought about this hand, I like the way you played it -- the main reason is that I do not wish to play a big pot with this hand, the decisions will become very difficult on other streets and its very hard to tell where we're at. I think we lose a big pot, but might win a small or medium one. I also think by the turn most of what is in his range beats us.

Fuq my earlier post.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Ash256

The thing is, doesn't a flop raise just fold out a lot of his range that we beat and force us to fold to a threebet when we are beat? It just seems like a pretty dead thing to do.

---

it saves you from having to call bigger bets on the turn and river.

yeah what hyper said, i still think you should raise this flop. It would probably let you know right where your at and save u from the bets on the turn and the river.

I know his 6 preflop range pretty much puts him smack dead on nailing that flop, but i have seen weirder things from people with 4 pf raises. Plus i think the biggest factor is it tells us where we are at. where as being passive, we don't have a clue. Also, i wouldn't be too surprised if he had something like kq or aq but from most of the low pf raisers this looks so much like aa maybe even kk.


heh post results when u get a chance :)

Nice debate guys. I'm proud of this thread, as I don't think HH postings should be all about "Hand -> Advice -> lol results", I like a good debate and seeing different ways of thinking, and I also like playing devil's advocate.

Results: He had the donked up AA.

I haven't read the other posts, so this might have already been said.

I think you really need to raise this flop. If he sticks around. I'd probably check through the turn, and re-evaluate on what he does on the river. Likely call a river bet.

If you raised the flop, and he calls, and he leads into you strong on the turn I might have to fold this. KQ, AK, and KK are strong in this range I'd imagine.

As played, I'd probably call, though I can't see much we're beating here. I'd call partially to see his hand and get a read on how he plays certain hands, and what type of weird lines he takes... this might not be agood reason to make a call though..