Taking the next step: The evolution of a Grinder.

I think someone said 'you will run worse than you ever thought possible'. This is me right now. Had a 30k stretch at the beginning of June -13 buyins. Last 50k hands -25 buyins. During just the last 5k hands I have lost a half stack or more 12 times. One AK v AA, one nut Flush v Boat(both hit on turn), 2 60/40 losses in reraised pots AI on flop, and one flopped under flush. The other 7 losses were all 2-3 outers, including my previous 2/4 hands I have had an underset or had my set outdrawn by a less than 4 outer a whopping 21 times over this 50k hand stretch.

I am tired of bitching about this stuff. This is the last thing I will ever write about how 'bad' its going. Now on to the good stuff.

I have logged 575,ooo hands so far this year for a ~2 bb/100 winrate. Not bad, but it needs to be higher if I am going to be able to beat 2/4 and up. It seems that I have the unnatural ability to sit and play 8+ tbales for hours at a time. I think that after 500k+ hands that I should be better than I am. This thread is about me taking the proverbial next step and become the player I should be.

What I feel are my current strengths and weaknesses:

Strength: Hand reading. I can usually put most of the regulars on very narrow ranges.

Weakness: Looking people up. I will too frequently look people up just to see if I'm right. Not a lot but enough that it is hurting my winrate.

Strength: Preflop play. I got a little carried away at 2/4, but I feel that I have a strong preflop game.

Weakness: My Image. Not factoring in my image and how people view me especially the HUD bots.

Weakness: Pot odds. Eventhough I have a real strong knowledge, I still am not always able to make the most profitable play, based on the odds.

Weakness: Bad players. I really struggle winning from the bad players.

Strength: Turn/River play. I feel that I make excellent choices on the later streets.

Weakness: Flop play. I feel that I make too many errors on the flop.

Nuetral: Extraction. I feel that I am fairly solid getting value from my hands, but it still needs to improve and I need to be more consistent.

I'm sure there are more. I will be posting both well played and trouble hands regularly.

Good luck fixing your leaks. Outlining strengths and weakness seems to be +EV, maybe i should do that...

Good luck, Jager.

Question: Have you ever thought about cutting back on the amount of tables you play at one time? I know you do when you move up in stakes, but what about full time? It sounds like you're capable of playing eight or so, but does it hurt your $$$ per hour? Four tables seems to be the tipping point for most people. I've talked with a few other guys on FTR and they're in the same boat, and the cardrunners.com guys tend to feel the same way about it. Everyone's different, though, and there are some that can do it...

Do you get bored if you play 3-4 tables? Do you have the same results either way, playing 3-4 or 7-8 tables?

Back when I used to play a bunch of tables my game went to shit every time I did more than four tables playing 6-max. My head would absolutely spin making so many decisions at once.

4 tables drives me nuts. I get real bored for some reason and start surfing like crazy. I am usually playing ~8. My game selection could improve, especially when my table starts to break up or new players sit down. I think my winrate improves when I play 6 or so, but I lose too much on my hourly rate. It is a rare occurance 8 tabling where I can't make a decision quick enough.

1st update(yeah!):

4k hands: -8 buyins.
Downswing now at 33 buyins.

Best played hand:
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Hero ($200)
UTG ($180.65)
Button ($43.20)
SB ($280.25)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Thttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, Thttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif.
UTG calls $2, 2 folds, Hero raises to $10, UTG calls $8.

Flop: ($21) 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, 3http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $12, UTG calls $12.

Turn: ($45) Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $30, UTG raises to $60, Hero calls $30.

River: ($165) 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $56, Hero calls $56.

Final Pot: $277

Results in white below:
Hero has Ts Th (one pair, tens).
UTG has 5s 3h (one pair, threes).
Outcome: Hero wins $277.

Thank you for bluffing.

Other big winning hands were all valuetown.

The losers were all beats again, in fact I haven't won a stack on an AI in 8k hands. Including 1 underset, 1 2 outer, KK v QQ, QQ v AA, QQ v AQ, KK v 87, AT v TT on AT2 board, AA v K6, AA v TT, Set 99 v FD, and this beauty:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Button ($268.45)
SB ($210.10)
Hero ($211.70)
UTG ($161.95)
MP ($290.10)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, Thttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif.
1 fold, MP calls $2, Button calls $2, SB completes, Hero raises to $12, MP calls $10, Button folds, SB calls $10.

Flop: ($38) Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, Thttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $22, MP folds, SB calls $22.

Turn: ($82) Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $60, SB raises to $176.1, Hero calls $116.10.

River: ($434.20) 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif (2 players)

Final Pot: $434.20

Results in white below:
SB has Qs Jh (straight, ace high).
Hero has Ks Ts (two pair, kings and tens).
Outcome: SB wins $434.20.

Back to the grindstone...

Today so far...
http://img444.imageshack.us/img444/5...ats0705mh1.jpg

Downswing overall -42 buyins was down 43 :D upswing coming!!:
http://img444.imageshack.us/img444/897/50kdownerdd2.jpg

christ gl man

And a graph:

http://img399.imageshack.us/img399/9...ergraphft3.jpg

tw;dr (too wide;didn't read}

take pity on we laptop players and resize graphs for forum posting pls.

I have two things to say about this.

1. You're not bad enough for this to be you playing bad, you're definetely a winner at 200nl, so don't feel like "OMG wtf am i doing wrong." (Although always try to improve).

2. I just went through a 35 BI downswing, and i felt like i played well throughout it. This shit does happen, anyone who realizes anything abut statistics would know that it does. There are going to be a few players who take 50BI downswings. YES, it could be you. Poker players have to accept this.

Jager has a style that's not swingy at all. He plays pretty nitty and seems to know when and when not to stack off.

Woohoo. 2600 more hands: After losing 2 more buyins, I pulled out and ended up +320. Still taking a ton of beats, but at least I moving in the right direction!!! My W$SD went up 6% for the day.

Went and seen Transformers, then put in another 3300 hands. Down another 5 buyins.:( This time I can blame mself for 2.:( 2 more undersets as well. Downswing now at 47 buyins. Good news weekend coming up , and I will get to play some tomorrow night. Haven't played on a Friday in weeks.

Kee-rist man, that's harsh! I totally feel you on the downswing part, I am going through my worst one also (-19BI's) and actually had to downgrade levels because of it.

I have the similarities in strengths and weaknesses as you Jager, but the MOST annoying one is I can't seem to beat the Horrible/BAD players either, overall I do believe I am losing player against them total nits who have no care in the world and continually suckout on me, it drives me nuts!

I normally don't post or whine during downswings but reading through your post and knowing a fellow player is thinking and going through the same things is kinda comforting, LET's get out of this rut and crush them Bobbleheads!! that's my new word for donkeys :p

Quote:

---

Weakness: Looking people up. I will too frequently look people up just to see if I'm right. Not a lot but enough that it is hurting my winrate.

---

i do this too when i enter new level or when i'm curious, i especially did it a lot at LHE. it does hurt ur profits ALOT but you also learn ALOT so you can use that information later.

8-tables well, many players who have very good reads will tell you 3-4 tables max or it'll hurt ur rate. i 6 tabled before and its the worst thing to do u play too automatically like a bot and dont have time learn new stuff. definately cut down if you ever want to go up in levels or increase ur bb10. imo 500k hands and only 2bb/100 thats more to that then just running bad. 500k is way too much and 2bb is way to low. man u must have feel where ur loosing ur profit: too many tables-6max is all reads, looking up,...well i'm sure if u think about it u must find out urself where u loose money when u play so much.

gl.

Jager, this is so sick, especially since you're a good player.

If it can make u feel better, I too have been going on a big downswing recently, my first big one. I feel like I forgot how to play poker or something, although when I review my hands they are all pretty standard.

I hope you pull out of this. Change sites or something maybe it will help u psychologically.

u should try swap HHs with friends at your level. it can help alot i find, id swap if you wanted but im not at your level.

Christ, ISF and Jager. Your downswings scare me. I shit my pants when I lost 6 buy-ins.

Wow, I have been on around a 10 buy in downswing where it feels like every possible bad thing happens but this just makes me realize its not that bad yet and could be worse.

After looking through my DB, I have found a whopping 28 hands were I hit a set and lost to either a flopped underset or was outdrawn by an overpair hitting a set or they hit a gutter(5 times). Believe me when I tell you that 99% of the hands in this sample are standard. The only way for me to have won more is to have gotten real aggro AND gotten people to fold in spots where they otherwise would not have. In the last 30k hands or so(all at 1/2), I have picked up a ton more pots that I previously would never have tried to get, maybe even another ~50%.

Here are some more stats for the last 10k hands, also small PP 22-99 are losing -$1123.6:Note how the Big pairs are doing as well.
http://img363.imageshack.us/img363/1...0705xz7.th.jpg

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Jager

After looking through my DB, I have found a whopping 28 hands were I hit a set and lost to either a flopped underset or was outdrawn by an overpair hitting a set or they hit a gutter(5 times).

---

This is pretty much the best way to know your downswinging. Both my big downswings have had this happen a ridiculous amount.

Well the weekend isn't treating me any better.
3100 hands:-4 buyins
Downswins now at 51 buyins.
Todays big losses include: 2 more undersets, QQ getting blown up by a runner runner flush, 1 under flush, AK v AA AI pre, I nut str8 v flush.

Big hands were QQ v Fish with 97, 99 set v bad Tagg pushing a oesd on turn, and 22 hitting quads.

Taking a break for dinner. MMM food.

And another interesting thing: last 30k hands -33 buyins, almost straight. There have been very few upswings in there at all.

http://img484.imageshack.us/img484/4...dgraphstz0.jpg

Well I thought that this was going to be a positve post. Saturday ended up being a +4 buy in day. I ran at 2.9 bb/100 even though I dropped the 4 buyins right away. Then Sunday came. It was better than last week, but I still dropped 4 buyins. Mostly just normal bad variance though, with some beats mixed in. So far today(mon.) it started off going well, then the beats came. I was running well over 6 bb/100 for 2500 hands then I lost it all on 3 hands. KK v AA, set of KK v flush, and this gem:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

BB ($177.45)
UTG ($101.50)
Hero ($322.65)
CO ($200)
Button ($285.30)
SB ($150)

Preflop: Hero is MP with Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif.
1 fold, Hero raises to $8, 3 folds, BB raises to $177.45, Hero calls $169.45.

Flop: ($355.90) 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif (2 players)

Turn: ($355.90) Thttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif (2 players)

River: ($355.90) 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif (2 players)

Final Pot: $355.90

Anyway looking forward to tomorrow. Its going to get better. Good news is I am playing awesome, so far I have fixed a couple of my leaks. I am not looking people up just to see their cards, I am trusting my reads and folding. My flop played has improved, I am not usually going past the flop without a plan for the later streets. The bad players are killing me still, 13/15 of the players I lost the most to are fish. So hopefully its my turn to run good...

whats u with the JJ hand???? why did you call

what's ur reads on BB?

Hey Jager, maybe drop down to 25NL for a day to get a feel for bad players and their tendancies without losing a lot of money? It's awesome you can beat the better players, but the shitty guys is where the real money should be coming from.

Reads on the JJ hand. He was unusually bad. He c/r bluffed a lot of flops, either as the PFR or not. I busted him with AK v his KQ AI preflop a few orbits earlier. After this he had been pushing every time I raised, he did this about 4 times. I knew I could be beat, but I was way ahead of his range...

The more often villian has been doing this the tighter his range gets for each time I think, just something to keep in mind.

And good luck on turning the ship around!

Playng good, running good(sort of). This is my first 10k stretch of hands since 06/01(162,000 hands), where my winrate is over 2. Seen AA v KK 4 times this stretch. I had KK 3 times and I lost all 4.:(

http://img527.imageshack.us/img527/5...inggoodup8.jpg

Already scratch the running good part. Just played another 1000 hands: -4 buyins...
Big losses
AQ flopped top 2
1 under flush
All these are reraised pots:
AA v 99
QQ v AA
QQ v KK
KK v 76s

Big wins:
55 set v AK
KK v KJs AI pre...

Do you ever run good?????????????????????

I can't even imagine playing that many hands running like garbage. I think you are legally insane!

After having a nice run Mon-Wed., this is what happens to me. I got up Thursday earler to play. First 1.5k hands I lose 7 BI's, I spend the next 4.5k hands grinding back to -1 BI. I am happy with that and I figured it was just a bad run, but hey I was only down 1 BI. I take a break, go out to eat, take a nap, hang out with the GF...then I deceide to play 2k hands before bed. This was my start:

I played 2100 hands and lost $2100. This set was another stretch of insane beats. I won 100-150 pots 4 times, the most being 149. I lost 100 or more 11 times, out of the 11, 5 times I was 2 outered, 2 3 outers, 1 K high flush v A high flush(after I pushed river the guy berated me for me an idiot), 1 TT v AQs in a reraised pot with top set guy hits flush, 1 BB special with 530 on a 9553 board other guy had 95, and 1 semi tilt pushing 99 preflop into a light squeezer. 1pair, 2pair, 3 of a kind, str8, and flush hands are all losing over this stretch. Gonna have to grind it back

Well I played a ton last week:32,642 hands!!!
Had a winning week too +$985.25, baby steps. Not a real strong week, I had another large downswing from late Wed to Fri, for another 14 BI's. I feel as though I am playing great. The hands I am losing are either flips, or I am well ahead and I am getting outdrawn. My downer this week can be directly attributed to my big hands all running well below average. I am looking forward to having a good week!!!!!

http://www.imagehosting.com/out.php/t910744_MoreBS.jpg

Nice way to start the week...
Big wins:
Nut Flush v donk
Set of J's v donk
Nut flush v set
Total:+469.40

Big losses:
2nd nut flush v nut flush with the A on board
Top set J's v AK hit Q gutter on turn
QQ v AA
KK v AA
QQ v 99 reraised pot
AQ v KK on a Qxx flop
Combo draw v AA
AA AI v 46 on Q49 flop hit 6 on turn
Total:-1477.85

Will this ever end...

Damn this is scary.

I haven't read the whole thread, just skimmed it. I was wondering how many buy-ins your playing with here. I thought I was playing it safe with about 80 buy-ins for 100NL, you must have been playing with like 150+ I guess.

And 32k hands in a week? wow, you are really putting in work. I wish I could grind like that.

I had 140 20onl BI roll when I took my shot at 400nl. I have cashed a couple of bonuses in there as well. Here is a quick summary of my last 182k hands since June 1.

06/01-06/03: 7,100 hands +$986 3.44 bb/100
06/04-06/10: 38,609 hands -$2618 (1.7) bb/100, took bunch of standard beats.
06/11-06/17: 18,019 hands +$1961 2.72 bb/100, had a nice week until Sat & Sun when I lost $1200 to the fishies.
06/18-06/24: 18,200 hands +1624 at 1/2, played 2500 of those hands at 2/4 -238.
06/25-07/01: 11, 500 hands at 1/2 -$834, 15,837 hands at 2/4 -$6031, this is when I took my 400nl shot and my big downswing started.
07/02-07/08: 40,540 hands -$5271 (3.25) bb/100.
07/09-07/15: 32,642 hands +$985 0.75 bb/100, played great the first10k and the last 10k running over 4 bb/100, but suffered a 14 BI downer over the middle 10k.

Overall:
181,800 hands
-$3166 at 1/2 for a (0.48) winrate
-$6289 at 2/4 for a (4.26) winrate
Had a 13 BI, 6 BI, 51 BI, 5 BI, and a 14 BI downswing over this stretch.

I am now getting close to a 200k stretch of losing hands. I really don't know where to turn, but I refuse to quit. Today has been awful so far.

http://www.imagehosting.com/out.php/t913505_Shit.jpg

I have Money Hands defined as TT+/AQ+. If these hands were running normal, I would be running well over 5ptbb/100. I am determined to grind through this, I am only playing 6-7 tables so I can get better reads. I am picking up many more small and medium pots than I used to a few weeks back, but I am losing so many more big pots. I just wonder how some players never have more than a ~5 BI downswing???

Post a ridiculous amount of hands here and i will look at every single one i promise and hopefully i can help a bit. I'm sure others will look too.

You seem most interested in FTR's pity than it's help Jager.

If I'm an asshole for saying that so be it.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

You seem most interested in FTR's pity than it's help Jager.

If I'm an asshole for saying that so be it.

---

Not really looking for pity at all, but when I say there is really nothing that can be done I mean it. I could post 100 hands that are just beats. All this is is bad variance, that just won't end. I am trying my hardest to stay positive through this, and grind it out.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

You seem most interested in FTR's pity than it's help Jager.

If I'm an asshole for saying that so be it.

---

I think sometimes it's just a case of needing to get it out. You don't always want to ask for help and just need to vent. What I would be worried about is the insanity theorem. You know the one, doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. I think everyone is empathizes with you Jager, I think what they want now is to know what do you want? Is there something we can do?

Yeah I agree with Jyms, its easier to feel better about things when you say them or write them.

There isn't really anything you guys can do to help. I wish there was, but there just isn't. I am playing outstanding, the past week or so. I don't want this to turn into a series of bad beat stories. I am just trying to keep up with this blog, and play better than I was previously. There are a lot of people that I think could learn from my experiences, especially from something like this. I have made almost zero negative expectation plays in the past week and a half. This is the 1 hand I felt I screwed up afterwards:

POKERSTARS GAME #10964609783: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($1/$2) - 2007/07/16 - 02:17:04 (ET)
Table 'Androgeos' 6-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: LittleiMoose ($101.55 in chips)
Seat 2: musicboy1 ($859.10 in chips)
Seat 3: NutMucka ($848.80 in chips)
Seat 4: Jager244 ($399.50 in chips)
Seat 5: Lukieplaya ($192 in chips)
Seat 6: DF_Newb ($209.10 in chips)
musicboy1: posts small blind $1
NutMucka: posts big blind $2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Jager244 [Qs 9s]
Jager244: raises $6 to $8
Lukieplaya: folds
DF_Newb: folds
LittleiMoose: calls $8
musicboy1: calls $7
NutMucka: calls $6
*** FLOP *** [2s Jc 7s]
musicboy1: bets $26
NutMucka: folds
Jager244: calls $26
LittleiMoose: folds
*** TURN *** [2s Jc 7s] [As]
musicboy1: bets $40
Jager244: calls $40
*** RIVER *** [2s Jc 7s As] [8s]
musicboy1: bets $178
Jager244: calls $178
*** SHOW DOWN ***
musicboy1: shows [6s Ks] (a flush, Ace high)
Jager244: mucks hand
musicboy1 collected $517 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $520 | Rake $3
Board [2s Jc 7s As 8s]
Seat 1: LittleiMoose (button) folded on the Flop
Seat 2: musicboy1 (small blind) showed [6s Ks] and won ($517) with a flush, Ace high
Seat 3: NutMucka (big blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 4: Jager244 mucked [Qs 9s]
Seat 5: Lukieplaya folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: DF_Newb folded before Flop (didn't bet)


Villain was a complete fish, I thought I could get more value calling the turn, but it became obvious that he had the K on the river, but I still called even after he paused for about 30 seconds. Afterward I felt that I should've pushed/ raised the turn, but as it turned out I would've cost my self more $$.

Here is one of those EV graphs since last Thursday:


http://www.imagehosting.com/out.php/t914256_EVgraph.jpg

spenda, why would you post that man. Jager, I admire your resilience in the downswing. That's hard to do man! And how the hell do you play so many hands, is this your job/

So I played again last night, and did alright. PLayed about 3k hands, won 300. I went down another 2 BI's before I even hit a hand. It was rough going at the start, most cbets were raised, getting 3bet like crazy from tight 3bettors. I finally started to actually hit a few hands. I was up 700+, until I got hit with 2 nasty beats(I posted 1 in the BBF).

I played about 2o0o hands this afternoon then another 3000 hands this evening. Lost 4.5 BI's again right out of the gate this afternoon. I can't seem to run good for the life of me. W$SD was 42%.:( The evening session was a lot better, + 5 BIs. Finished the day almost +1 BI. Played alright, got coolered a few times, I really can't complain though.

I got blasted by Villain here for this call.

POKERSTARS GAME #10997323708: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($1/$2) - 2007/07/17 - 23:39:34 (ET)
Table 'Koronis' 6-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: bballjm ($246.20 in chips)
Seat 2: CybrPunk ($221.90 in chips)
Seat 3: BGnight ($216.20 in chips)
Seat 4: hamill10 ($21.60 in chips)
Seat 5: Jager244 ($213.25 in chips)
Seat 6: BANKROLLME 9 ($237.10 in chips)
Jager244: posts small blind $1
BANKROLLME 9: posts big blind $2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Jager244 [Qh Kh]
bballjm: folds
CybrPunk: folds
BGnight: raises $5 to $7
hamill10: folds
Jager244: calls $6
BANKROLLME 9: folds
*** FLOP *** [4c Th 9h]
Jager244: checks
BGnight: bets $12
Jager244: raises $18 to $30
BGnight: raises $179.20 to $209.20 and is all-in
Jager244: calls $176.25 and is all-in
*** TURN *** [4c Th 9h] [As]
*** RIVER *** [4c Th 9h As] [6c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Jager244: shows [Qh Kh] (high card Ace)
BGnight: mucks hand
Jager244 collected $425.50 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $428.50 | Rake $3
Board [4c Th 9h As 6c]
Seat 1: bballjm folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: CybrPunk folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: BGnight mucked [Jh 8h]
Seat 4: hamill10 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: Jager244 (small blind) showed [Qh Kh] and won ($425.50) with high card Ace
Seat 6: BANKROLLME 9 (big blind) folded before Flop


Was this bad, I was counting 12 outs plus maybe another 6.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Jager

Was this bad, I was counting 12 outs plus maybe another 6.

---

Meh, I'd rather be the one doing the pushing.

And what is Lukie doing slumming? Terrorizing the 200NLers?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Galapogos

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Jager

Was this bad, I was counting 12 outs plus maybe another 6.

---

Meh, I'd rather be the one doing the pushing.

And what is Lukie doing slumming? Terrorizing the 200NLers?

---

I've seen him a couple of times now, he doesn't stay around to long though.

Well since the big 51 BI downer I've played 60,000 hands of BE poker. :? If my big hands were hitting like my first 450,000 hands to start the year, then I would still only be running at my normal 2.2 ptbb/100. I have a 6, 14, and 9 BI downswing in this stretch. I just can't seem to avoid these, and I look through hands and I don't see any spew. The plays I make are +EV. I need to find a way to play better.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Jager

I played about 2o0o hands this afternoon then another 3000 hands this evening. Lost 4.5 BI's again right out of the gate this afternoon. I can't seem to run good for the life of me. W$SD was 42%.:( The evening session was a lot better, + 5 BIs. Finished the day almost +1 BI. Played alright, got coolered a few times, I really can't complain though.

I got blasted by Villain here for this call.

PokerStars GAME #10997323708: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($1/$2) - 2007/07/17 - 23:39:34 (ET)
Table 'Koronis' 6-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: bballjm ($246.20 in chips)
Seat 2: CybrPunk ($221.90 in chips)
Seat 3: BGnight ($216.20 in chips)
Seat 4: hamill10 ($21.60 in chips)
Seat 5: Jager244 ($213.25 in chips)
Seat 6: BANKROLLME 9 ($237.10 in chips)
Jager244: posts small blind $1
BANKROLLME 9: posts big blind $2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Jager244 [Qh Kh]
bballjm: folds
CybrPunk: folds
BGnight: raises $5 to $7
hamill10: folds
Jager244: calls $6
BANKROLLME 9: folds
*** FLOP *** [4c Th 9h]
Jager244: checks
BGnight: bets $12
Jager244: raises $18 to $30
BGnight: raises $179.20 to $209.20 and is all-in
Jager244: calls $176.25 and is all-in
*** TURN *** [4c Th 9h] [As]
*** RIVER *** [4c Th 9h As] [6c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Jager244: shows [Qh Kh] (high card Ace)
BGnight: mucks hand
Jager244 collected $425.50 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $428.50 | Rake $3
Board [4c Th 9h As 6c]
Seat 1: bballjm folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: CybrPunk folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: BGnight mucked [Jh 8h]
Seat 4: hamill10 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: Jager244 (small blind) showed [Qh Kh] and won ($425.50) with high card Ace
Seat 6: BANKROLLME 9 (big blind) folded before Flop


Was this bad, I was counting 12 outs plus maybe another 6.

---

This is fine, although it is close, it'd be interesting to see an EV calculation against a range of 44, 99-AA, Axh, AT, QJ, J8. Or some range similar too that. Usually when someone tells you your play was bad it was good. :D

I'd also raise bigger on the flop, what;s with the small ass raise size?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Jager

1st update(yeah!):

4k hands: -8 buyins.
Downswing now at 33 buyins.

Best played hand:
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Hero ($200)
UTG ($180.65)
Button ($43.20)
SB ($280.25)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Thttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, Thttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif.
UTG calls $2, 2 folds, Hero raises to $10, UTG calls $8.

Flop: ($21) 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, 3http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $12, UTG calls $12.

Turn: ($45) Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $30, UTG raises to $60, Hero calls $30.

River: ($165) 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $56, Hero calls $56.

Final Pot: $277

Results in white below:
Hero has Ts Th (one pair, tens).
UTG has 5s 3h (one pair, threes).
Outcome: Hero wins $277.

Thank you for bluffing.

Other big winning hands were all valuetown.

The losers were all beats again, in fact I haven't won a stack on an AI in 8k hands. Including 1 underset, 1 2 outer, KK v QQ, QQ v AA, QQ v AQ, KK v 87, AT v TT on AT2 board, AA v K6, AA v TT, Set 99 v FD, and this beauty:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Button ($268.45)
SB ($210.10)
Hero ($211.70)
UTG ($161.95)
MP ($290.10)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, Thttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif.
1 fold, MP calls $2, Button calls $2, SB completes, Hero raises to $12, MP calls $10, Button folds, SB calls $10.

Flop: ($38) Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, Thttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $22, MP folds, SB calls $22.

Turn: ($82) Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $60, SB raises to $176.1, Hero calls $116.10.

River: ($434.20) 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif (2 players)

Final Pot: $434.20

Results in white below:
SB has Qs Jh (straight, ace high).
Hero has Ks Ts (two pair, kings and tens).
Outcome: SB wins $434.20.

Back to the grindstone...

---

U must be playing badly to be on a downswing this bad. maybe u have realised this since this post.....now i will read the rest of the post.

Quit focussing on urself getting drawn out on, and focus on winning the maximum u can from ur good hands and the least from ur bad hands,

sure the big all in beats hurt, but i am sure that a small genuine downswing at first has turned u into a losing player - this usually occurs cos u miss value bets on later streets on fear people will draw out on u. i wud stop calling it a downswing and just face the fact u appear to have morphed into a losing player. i will now read from here onwards and see if u have changed ur approach.,

good luck anyway!

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Jager

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

You seem most interested in FTR's pity than it's help Jager.

If I'm an asshole for saying that so be it.

---

Not really looking for pity at all, but when I say there is really nothing that can be done I mean it. I could post 100 hands that are just beats. All this is is bad variance, that just won't end. I am trying my hardest to stay positive through this, and grind it out.

---

over 200K hands then set over sets are gonna happen alot of time dude. Everyone gets sucked out on, u have to accept it and not let it affect ur play - as hard as that may be. U must be missing value bets and making bad plays alot, u just must be. Stop posting ur set up hands and start posting some hands where u won resonable pots or lost resonable pots. Maybe u r easily bluffed on the river, maybe u r raising too much when u have a big hand and so tipping people off, maybe u r not raising enough when u have a big hand and are not protecting ur hands, maybe u r just playing bad.... I do NOT believe u r on a downswing, i am sorry. the fact that u seem to be posting and moaning about bad luck (which happens to everyone) clearly shows that u r not in the right frame of mind to play winning poker. I believe u should take a break, move site, move limit, whatever, just forget the past and start again cos u r a losing player.

I am sorry to be an asshole too, but these things must be said dude. I dont think these people in this topic are helping u by giving credence to ur rants about bad luck. I could look at a 50k styrecth of hands and post a ton of bad beats and set ups to make u think i am the most unlucky player on the planet.

My advice - look at ur value bets - r u missing them? how often do u check ont he river and have the best hand?

good luck

All I can say to the 'doubters' that this can't ahppen to you is: I have reviewed every hand I have played since this started. I am not missing any more bets or really playing that different than I was before June 1. If anything I feel that I am playing better, I am picking up more 50 bbs pots than ever before. So what has changed? My big hands(AQ+, TT+) over my last 110k hands is winning only 60% of what they did for the first 5 months of this year. Now if they were still winning at that same pace, I would have won an additional $15,338.29 over this same 110k hands. This in addition to my 2pair, 3 of a kind, straights, flushes, and boats are all losing an additional 2-8% more, you've got yourself a prolonged downswing. Now you might argue that the first 450k hands this year I ran hotter than 'normal', but this isn't true. I think you will find that in the first 450k hands, these hands ae about equal to your stats for these hands, if not lower.

First 450k hands this year:
Hand:BB/100
AA:5.93
KK:3.46
QQ:2.24
JJ:0.83
TT:1.19
AK/AQ:~0.85

Last 110k:
AA:3.93
KK:2.90
QQ:0.94
JJ:0.44
TT:0.72
AK/AQ:~0.30

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Jager

All I can say to the 'doubters' that this can't ahppen to you is: I have reviewed every hand I have played since this started. I am not missing any more bets or really playing that different than I was before June 1. If anything I feel that I am playing better, I am picking up more 50 bbs pots than ever before. So what has changed? My big hands(AQ+, TT+) over my last 110k hands is winning only 60% of what they did for the first 5 months of this year. Now if they were still winning at that same pace, I would have won an additional $15,338.29 over this same 110k hands. This in addition to my 2pair, 3 of a kind, straights, flushes, and boats are all losing an additional 2-8% more, you've got yourself a prolonged downswing. Now you might argue that the first 450k hands this year I ran hotter than 'normal', but this isn't true. I think you will find that in the first 450k hands, these hands ae about equal to your stats for these hands, if not lower.

First 450k hands this year:
Hand:BB/100
AA:5.93
KK:3.46
QQ:2.24
JJ:0.83
TT:1.19
AK/AQ:~0.85

Last 110k:
AA:3.93
KK:2.90
QQ:0.94
JJ:0.44
TT:0.72
AK/AQ:~0.30

---

those stats prove nothing. maybe u r not laying them down in good spots. maybe u ARE missing bets. maybe u r raising too much pre flop with them and killing ur action for fear of getting sucked out on.

My arguement:

Quit trying to justify ur downswing with bad luck, and quit putting urself in the frame of mind that poker is against u. because ur current mindset - which is proven by this topic - clearly displays the reason u r losing.

i see it as u have two choices:

1, keep feeling hard done by and continue to lose
2, get over it and play poker with a freedom again and win (maybe)

u need to be emotionally robust to win in my opinion.

Sorry if i am being a moron in ur eyes, but i am right

I know you're trying to help him Zidane18, but Jager is experienced enough of a player to realize when he is downswinging vs havinbg massive leaks in his game. His name is actually one of the most common ones I see pop up in "what Stars reg do you hate to see at your table" threads.

Though I'm sure he has plenty of little leaks in his game, as all us small stakes players have. But nothing big enough to blame a 40+ downswing on bad play.

Alright, I am not trying to justify anything. I am only stating what is or is not happening. I approach every session I have ever played positive and expecting good results. I am not emotionally 'down' by any of this. I understand that these things happen, and I will come out ahead. You clearly don't have an understanding that these things do happen. Just yesterday I read a blog post, by someone whos game I very much respect who said that over the 3 million hands he has played he has gone through 650k+ swings. Meaning he would win for a prolonged stretch and then lose for a prolonged stretch. Your failure to realize this is just a lack of knowledge.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Jager

Alright, I am not trying to justify anything. I am only stating what is or is not happening. I approach every session I have ever played positive and expecting good results. I am not emotionally 'down' by any of this. I understand that these things happen, and I will come out ahead. You clearly don't have an understanding that these things do happen. Just yesterday I read a blog post, by someone whos game I very much respect who said that over the 3 million hands he has played he has gone through 650k+ swings. Meaning he would win for a prolonged stretch and then lose for a prolonged stretch. Your failure to realize this is just a lack of knowledge.

---

yeh and he too probably plays bad poker during that stretch. u shud step down and refocus. when u can beat the level below then move up again. Or u can keep going the way u r going and go bust due to 'bad luck' or whatever.

believe me, i take no enjoyment out of the failings of a clearly nice guy like u. i am just trying to help. it wud be easy to say 'man this sucksss u r so unlucky man'. but that isnt helpful

Only got in 5250 hands this weekend. Played pretty good, was up 2.5 BI's. Still not running well, but at least I am winning. I think I fixed a big leak that was costing me around .75 ptbb/100. This in addition to patching my flop leaks could lead to a nice 3.5+ ptbb/100.

I have also broke down and got a CR membership. The Videos are nice, but it seems very standard to me. I think I just need to watch more until I see them get in tougher spots or spots that I have trouble with.

Looking forward to a good week...

http://www.cardrunners.com/fusetalk/...cfm?forumid=38

Jman's (OMGClayAiken) blog. I guess i'm posting this here because he has a nice little article about downswings, and it's pretty solid overall too. Enjoy.

Thanks for the link Alexos, vn.

Again I started off the week on a small downer, 6 BI's over my first 2500 hands. I however recovered those over the next 2600 hands. :cool: I started off losing $246 with AA on the first big hand on the day, not fun. Over the session I again lost more AI's than I won, but I am winning so many small pots now that I am still BE. Here is a hand I thought I played great, but it didn't work out:

I had 3bet him once before and he shoved with JJ and hit a J. I hadn't seen him before this session.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Hero ($215.20)
SB ($203.35)
BB ($203)
UTG ($390.20)
MP ($211.20)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, Thttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif.
UTG raises to $6, 1 fold, Hero raises to $26, 2 folds, UTG calls $20.

Flop: ($55) 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif (2 players)
UTG bets $14, Hero raises to $42, UTG calls $28.

Turn: ($139) 3http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $147.2 (All-In), UTG calls $147.20.

River: ($0) 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $433.40

Results in white below:
UTG has Jh Qd (one pair, queens).
Hero has Ad Td (high card, ace).
Outcome: UTG wins $433.40.

I thought there was no way he was calling this shove without at least AQ. Either way I am very happy with this hand, he is a huge underdog to my shoving range here.

dont bluff bad players.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

dont bluff bad players.

---

He actually seemed at least semi solid before this hand...

And it continues...

http://img412.imageshack.us/img412/3306/0724xl0.jpg

This is from just today. I couldn't even win a hand for a while, then when I actually got a hand it was AA v JJ RR pot, J hits, then KK v QQ 4bet pot, Q hits, then I get QQ v AA AI pre vs a 70 bb stack... AA, KK, and QQ are all losers again for this session. Today was a real frustrating session. I played all day waiting for someone to play back at me, then when they start to I can't win a hand. My other 2 big losing hands were AQ on a AAx flop v AK RR pot, and another pushed semibluff:

This guy was super aggro 8, inf, inf. He raised nearly every flop.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

SB ($195.05)
Hero ($205.75)
UTG ($207.70)
MP ($188.50)
Button ($189.80)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif.
3 folds, SB completes, Hero raises to $10, SB calls $8.

Flop: ($20) Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, 3http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $16, SB raises to $32, Hero raises to $195.75, SB calls $153.05 (All-In).

Turn: ($390.10) 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($390.10) 4http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $390.10

Results in white below:
SB has Qs 9h (two pair, queens and nines).
Hero has Ad 6d (high card, ace).
Outcome: SB wins $390.10. Hero wins $10.70.


I only won 75 bbs or more twice, JJ vs 99 on a K6J59r board were the guy shoved river, and a super standard 22 set hand. I again need to grind through this...

I finally had a nice session:

http://img523.imageshack.us/img523/4981/0725rb3.jpg


My hands held up except when my QQ v AK didn't hold up. Also outdrew a couple times, which was nice :lol: . I hit a nice 2 outer with Q9 on a Q97 flop vx 99, and also spiked a T on the turn in a reraised rag flop with TT v AA. Overall though I won more big hands than I lost for the first time since June, and I was rewarded with nice results.

Well the running good didn't last long:

http://img258.imageshack.us/img258/3135/0726gk8.jpg

It is just the same ole story, I continue to lose more big pots than I win. My EV graph has my Sklansky bucks at +257, and my Showdown winnings at -521. I was rivered on 3 str8 hands at one point 2 2 outers and a runner runner flush vs my nut str8. I feel as though I am making very +EV plays, and I am dominating every table I sit at. The results will eventually come...

My favorite hand from tonight(I love a good read):

POKERSTARS GAME #11157662114: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($1/$2) - 2007/07/27 - 02:38:32 (ET)
Table 'Electra V' 6-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: ChiDenHaag ($63.65 in chips)
Seat 2: FGators26 ($356.95 in chips)
Seat 3: jhorton ($418.50 in chips)
Seat 4: He H8te Mee ($255.15 in chips)
Seat 5: Jager244 ($197 in chips)
Seat 6: wegotBG ($174.85 in chips)
ChiDenHaag: posts small blind $1
FGators26: posts big blind $2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Jager244 [Ks Ad]
jhorton: folds
He H8te Mee: folds
Jager244: raises $6 to $8
wegotBG: folds
ChiDenHaag: folds
FGators26: raises $18 to $26
Jager244: raises $34 to $60
FGators26: raises $296.95 to $356.95 and is all-in
Jager244: calls $137 and is all-in
*** FLOP *** [4h Ts Td]
*** TURN *** [4h Ts Td] [2h]
*** RIVER *** [4h Ts Td 2h] [3s]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
FGators26: shows [Ah Qh] (a pair of Tens)
Jager244: shows [Ks Ad] (a pair of Tens - Ace+King kicker)
Jager244 collected $392 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $395 | Rake $3
Board [4h Ts Td 2h 3s]
Seat 1: ChiDenHaag (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 2: FGators26 (big blind) showed [Ah Qh] and lost with a pair of Tens
Seat 3: jhorton folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: He H8te Mee folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: Jager244 showed [Ks Ad] and won ($392) with a pair of Tens
Seat 6: wegotBG (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)

first off, great thread, it helps seeing how good players can have this happen, and i'm excited to see you bust out of this.

i want to expand on what ISF wrote about the ATdd hand, since these sorts of marginal (and possibly -ev) plays vs bad opponents may be a substantial cause of your swings.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Jager

I thought there was no way he was calling this shove without at least AQ. Either way I am very happy with this hand, he is a huge underdog to my shoving range here.

---

even if he is an underdog to your range there, it doesn't matter because IMO he is calling at least the flop too often in this hand for this to be +ev, and it's not likely you're playing him long enough for him to realize you'll have a big hand here often enough.

players like this usually think very simplistically, like, "lets see where im at...wtf who raises with a big hand here...trap time!"

i know folding on the flop seems weak, but in my experience more often this lead is a decent hand (top or even mid pair, draw, etc) that will at least call one raise (at least without some other history involved).

so i think folding is OK, but otherwise prefer floating. if you float, they will usually give the strength of their hand on the turn.
if they lead small again and you raise, it fits more with how they would play a big hand. turn action also gives a more accurate gauge on how strong they are. plus you have the backdoor draws with an over just in case.

basically i think floating has a similar effect but with lower variance here, probably the same with calling pre flop instead of 3 betting, since this guy seems pretty bad.

edit...i probably went on too much about the hand, but my main point was that vs this player, at least in big pots or ones they show aggression, your range should be like 95%+ value.

Well I ended up down ~950 for the week. The weekend didn't bring me any better 'luck.' I am now BE over the last 88k hands since my big downer. I really like the way I am playing since I fixed my leak. My W$WSF % is over 2% higher than my previous average. If I could just get my big hands to hold up more I would be doing good. On Sunday my 2 pair and 3 of a kind hands were both losing a combined $450, it is real hard to overcome a bad session when these hands are losing like this. I think its about time to pull out of this funk...

That's a really sick hand Jager, especially against Fgators. You have more balls than I. I think I'm too much of a PF nit. I hate being AI with anything but AA...I cringe otherwise ;p

I felt like taking this back to the beginning:

Quote:

---

What I feel are my current strengths and weaknesses:

Strength: Hand reading. I can usually put most of the regulars on very narrow ranges.

Weakness: Looking people up. I will too frequently look people up just to see if I'm right. Not a lot but enough that it is hurting my winrate.

---

What's interesting is that since you've played so many hands, now some of these calls have become EV+ to confirm your hand reading skills. But now you have played such a crapload of hands I don't see the point anymore in calling for information.

Quote:

---

Strength: Preflop play. I got a little carried away at 2/4, but I feel that I have a strong preflop game.

Weakness: My Image. Not factoring in my image and how people view me especially the HUD bots.

---

What do you mean by carried away at 2/4?

On image, I don't think the hud bot stats matter as much as what you've done at the table -- i.e. frequency of 3/4 bets, actual hands you have shown down, and if you have been caught bluffing. Only really the extreme edges of the hud really give much info, i.e. the 13/12 and 48/15 type guys.

Quote:

---

Weakness: Pot odds. Eventhough I have a real strong knowledge, I still am not always able to make the most profitable play, based on the odds.

---

In what regard? You should check your HH's and diagnose this specifically. Are your deficiencies in raising to give bad odds for draws, or calling with bad odds to hit draws/sets? Overvaluing or undervaluing implied odds?

Quote:

---

Weakness: Bad players. I really struggle winning from the bad players.

---

This is strange. How do you play bad players? What exactly is the problem? Also, are they bad full stacks or bad short stacks? I love both, but they each have to be played differently. Bad shorties I make some thin calls but I tighten my range so when I do play with them I usually stack them. Vs bad full stacks I like to play implied odds hands like sc's.

I win at least 40% of my money from bad players. One thing not to do is try to 'outplay' them or scare them into folding, as often they don't see the same situations as everyone else and call anyways. Just play them very ABC. Sometimes I prefer raising them less PF unless I have a very strong hand, just so I can see a cheap flop and outplay them on the flop.

I've almost eliminated the calling to see hands.

As far as getting carried away at 2/4. I felt as though I was shoving AK a little too much, and overall I wasn't handling the 3/4 bets very well. For some reason I would shove AK into a 12/10 player who 4 bet.

The image part is a little different. My stats sort of lie to you about the way I really play, or at least they used to. I would run at 22/17 and never 3bet light for long stretches. I have now switched over to what I think is more of a 22/20 game, and I am 3betting a lot more.

The pot odds problem was really just overvaluing implied odds, and default calling when I am not sure OR when I am on auto pilot. I have cut out all of these problems.

After much work on my game the last month, I seem to be beating up on the bad players a lot more. I think this leak may now also be fixed.

Overall I have really tried to focus on making +EV decisions. I know this seems basic, but a lot of my focus has been with just the math part of the game. Some stuff like using HUD stats and reads along with bet sizes to play my hands, and knowing that I am making a +EV choice regardless of my cards. I have also worked a lot on counter moves for when people try to exploit my tendencies, this is still very much a work in progress.

I have also started to take alot of notes and I am actually using a system. A few weeks back I was looking into 3bet calling ranges. I was seeing such a wide range from player to player. It goes along with the EV thing and with the perceived range v. actual range theory. I needed to know who is calling what where, do they 4 bet, how they play the flop, etc. So I started taking detailed notes on all 3bet pots I see, and any other unusual things, like someone cold calling with KK. I am also still taking notes on how they play their big hands, sets, and draws as well as noting if a player is positionally aware with their PFR's.

I really feel like HUD stats can be misleading, though I JUST got a HUD for the first time 2 weeks ago. I played just on reads for the longest time. I don't find myself looking at the HUD much to be honest, I've found it mainly useful to pick out the super nit 14/12 guys, and thats about it.

Congrats on dropping the leaks!
When you say a system, do you mean a "system to take/recall notes" or a poker strategy?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by benny999

first off, great thread, it helps seeing how good players can have this happen, and i'm excited to see you bust out of this.

i want to expand on what ISF wrote about the ATdd hand, since these sorts of marginal (and possibly -ev) plays vs bad opponents may be a substantial cause of your swings.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Jager

I thought there was no way he was calling this shove without at least AQ. Either way I am very happy with this hand, he is a huge underdog to my shoving range here.

---

even if he is an underdog to your range there, it doesn't matter because IMO he is calling at least the flop too often in this hand for this to be +ev, and it's not likely you're playing him long enough for him to realize you'll have a big hand here often enough.

players like this usually think very simplistically, like, "lets see where im at...wtf who raises with a big hand here...trap time!"

i know folding on the flop seems weak, but in my experience more often this lead is a decent hand (top or even mid pair, draw, etc) that will at least call one raise (at least without some other history involved).

so i think folding is OK, but otherwise prefer floating. if you float, they will usually give the strength of their hand on the turn.
if they lead small again and you raise, it fits more with how they would play a big hand. turn action also gives a more accurate gauge on how strong they are. plus you have the backdoor draws with an over just in case.

basically i think floating has a similar effect but with lower variance here, probably the same with calling pre flop instead of 3 betting, since this guy seems pretty bad.

edit...i probably went on too much about the hand, but my main point was that vs this player, at least in big pots or ones they show aggression, your range should be like 95%+ value.

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I think to sum up what you're trying to say. Just because a player makes a bad play doesnt mean you didn't too.
Let's say there's a sitation where you're ahead of opp 99% of the time in a certain spot and opp calls anyways. You happened to be bluffing that 1% of the time and lose. What a dumb call by opp right? Well what a dumb play by you. If opp is calling 100% of the time than we should never bluff him in this spot ever.

Thats kinda funny, 'cause my old computer couldn't handle my DB and my HUD so I went with no HUD until late MAY. After refining my HUD display, it is now pretty intense:

Row 1:# of Hands/VPIP/PFR/AG Total
Row 2:Flop Ag/Turn Ag/River Ag/Raise Cbet/Raise turn/Bet river
Row 3:Folds to cbet/fold to turn bet/fold to river bet/Att to steal/fold BB to steal

I am only really using the row 3 right now though. The flop/turn/river Ag factors, don't really help much.

I am using this note system:

CC:Hands they cold call with
3B:Hands they 3bet PF with
C3B:Hands they call a PF 3bet with.
4B:Hands they 4bet with
C4b:Hands they call a 4bet with, but do not shove(wierd but it happens to me a ton)
Sets:How they playa Set.
Draws:How they play their draws
BH:Big hands and how they play them(this is usually if I don't get a shwodown)

I also note what position their in.
Example: CC:KK(c) is cold calls KK in the cut off.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Jager

After much work on my game the last month, I seem to be beating up on the bad players a lot more. I think this leak may now also be fixed.

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I think I spoke way too soon, the fish are just killing me today, just killing me.

Well its been another great start to my week:

http://img154.imageshack.us/img154/2214/0730lz4.jpg


Funny thing is that I was up 450 after 50 hands, then I can't win another hand for the life of me. I had to quit after these 2, both villains were 65+ vpip guys who never folded, I was just waiting to vbet them to death. BTW I think my river calls are both shit...

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

CO ($367.45)
Button ($291.35)
SB ($366.85)
BB ($190.75)
Hero ($195)
MP ($202)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Thttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, Thttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif.
Hero raises to $8, 2 folds, Button calls $8, 2 folds.

Flop: ($19) 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $14, Button calls $14.

Turn: ($47) 4http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $30, Button calls $30.

River: ($107) Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $80, Hero calls $80.

Final Pot: $267

Results in white below:
Hero has Tc Td (one pair, tens).
Button has Ah Qd (one pair, queens).
Outcome: Button wins $267.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG ($116.95)
MP ($89.65)
Hero ($206.90)
Button ($188)
SB ($300.85)
BB ($334.50)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif.
UTG calls $2, 1 fold, Hero raises to $10, 3 folds, UTG calls $8.

Flop: ($23) 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, 3http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, 4http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $12, UTG calls $12.

Turn: ($47) Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $30, UTG calls $30.

River: ($107) 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
UTG bets $64.95 (All-In), Hero calls $64.95.

Final Pot: $236.90

Results in white below:
UTG has 6c Kc (straight, six high).
Hero has 2h Ah (straight, five high).
Outcome: UTG wins $236.90.

This was another very irritating session. I am now losing a shit ton of small pots, but winning several large ones. This was my favorite:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

SB ($231.25)
BB ($200.80)
UTG ($434.75)
MP ($163.50)
Hero ($225.35)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif.
UTG raises to $10, 1 fold, Hero raises to $32, 2 folds, UTG calls $22.

Flop: ($67) Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, Thttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $45, UTG calls $45.

Turn: ($157) Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks.

River: ($157) 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif (2 players)
UTG bets $357.75 (All-In), Hero calls $148.35 (All-In).

Final Pot: $453.70

Results in white below:
UTG has 9h 9d (one pair, nines).
Hero has Ah Qd (one pair, queens).
Outcome: Hero wins $453.70. UTG wins $209.40.

Villain who is a reg, then sat out for a while, then found me on another table were he had position nad 3bet me every time I raised. Is was a shame I didn't get any type of real hand, 'cause I was definately getting another stack.