Bottom 2 Heads-up 150 deep

I have my opponent at 18/14 although prior to this hand he was playing tighter and so far had been very straight forward. I've taken down a couple 3-way pots from him when he's checked to my button.

Routine fold?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Button ($19.80)
SB ($157.70)
Fnord ($195.15)
UTG ($91.75)
MP ($109.20)

Preflop: Fnord is BB with Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, Thttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif.
3 folds, SB raises to $4, Fnord calls $3.

Flop: ($8) Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, Thttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif (2 players)
SB checks, Fnord bets $5, SB raises to $18

ugh the way he played it makes me really think AK but I think you have to fold here.

villain's playing this weird. it's way too risky to check here if he has pair, 2pair, set, straight, because of the flush possibility. i think this is a semi-bluff flush more often than a strong hand. which makes me wanna push, but i'd be scared to do it, which means i chicken out and fold.

Villain's line is so weird here. Don't you guys feel like he's taking a very "strong arm" approach here, trying to get hero to fold? It feels like a pair+draw to me as well.

Her's bet also doesn't seem that strong, so he's probably playing at the weakness.

I probably call and re-evaluate, but I spew too much.

I don't see how we fold the flop. There are so many hands where SB tries to steal the blind, and either leads flop or c/r me that I call and evaluate turn.

Doesn't a c/r here suggest a stronger hand than just a lead?

I can't fold this here. Call and see what he does, and make your boat while you're at it.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Warpe

make your boat while you're at it.

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Funny you should say that.

If the turn is a J or T and all of the money gets into the pot, are we happy?

well, we won't be pushing.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Fnord

Doesn't a c/r here suggest a stronger hand than just a lead?

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yes, this is why its a great line in a blind war. I do this a lot -- raise someone's blind and c/r flop. Usually they'll fold just about anything except 2p, or tpgk.

A lot of smart players will recognize and get tired of you raising their blind, so sometimes leading is kinda useless unless you hit well -- I've ran into a lot of opponents who in a blind war will raise my cbet on the flop. To counter this I've been c/ring them.

I think you are undervaluing your hand value here, I think there are a lot of people who bluff this, and a lot of hands besides AJ and A10 who make the same move. If he had KJ he might think his hand was the best, a weak ace, AQ/AK, tons of hands I can see making this move. Much smaller range in total IMO have you beat

dont fold whatever you do

Yeah, im tempted to raise this up and see what he does, but as you described him i think i might just call.

I think you have the best hand here most of the time. Its pretty unlikely he has a set with you holding two pair, and i think even for a 18/14 you are giving him too much credit to put him squarely on KQ.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by snowbird4life

i think even for a 18/14 you are giving him too much credit to put him squarely on KQ.

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AJ, AT, KQ, AA, JJ, TT all have me crushed.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Fnord

Quote:

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Originally Posted by snowbird4life

i think even for a 18/14 you are giving him too much credit to put him squarely on KQ.

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AJ, AT, KQ, AA, JJ, TT all have me crushed.

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don't you think those hands wouldn't risk a 3rd flush card coming? does he have a read on you that you'll bet if checked to?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Fnord

Quote:

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Originally Posted by snowbird4life

i think even for a 18/14 you are giving him too much credit to put him squarely on KQ.

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AJ, AT, KQ, AA, JJ, TT all have me crushed.

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The sentence before i said that, i said its pretty unlikley he has a set. In my 20k hands of 100nl last month, i had one instance that i have found of a set besting my two pair on the flop. Maybe i just run well, but because of that, i almost count aa jj and tt out. I also think its pretty unlikley he has you beat with two higher pair.

Anyway, my point being, i think your ahead most of the time here, and i would raise.

Also, Hyper has a pretty good point in why when he has the lead, would he check to you here on this flop with any of the hands you mentioned? It seems if he had AJ, AT, KQ, AA, JJ, or TT, he wouldn't check the flop because of the obvious risk of you checking behind and another club coming on the turn.

84,150 games 0.005 secs 16,830,000 games/sec

Board: Ac Jc Ts
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.336% 41.40% 02.94% 34834 2474.50 { JsTh }
Hand 1: 55.664% 52.72% 02.94% 44367 2474.50 { AA, JJ-TT, A2s+, KQs, JTs, ATo+, KQo, JTo }

What's with all this talk of villain needing to protect his hand from a club? It's HU ffs, I'd be nervous of running clubs but I don't see the need for villain to protect in a HU pot from a flush draw. " ZOMG he could have a flush draw however unlikely it is." <~~~is that what everybody thinks when they play HU? /rant

I'd probably call and fold the turn because I'm stupid. I'm sure folding the flop is best.

I think your range calc is way too narrow here fnord, he also could be on a complete bluff. There is $13 in the pot and he risks $18. This bluff will work probably 3 out of 4 timess, definitely EV+ to bluff here. Heck, if ppl are laying down bottom two he theoretically has 95% chance of the bluff working!

I use this line myself in blind wars after I started noticing ppl re-raising my cbets after a SB or blind raise.