Is this play ever right?

Villain is 54/14 over ~100 hands.

Given there is only one hand that beats me is this a better play or is check/call a reasonable bet a better play?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (7 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

saw flop|saw showdown

UTG ($8.25)
MP1 ($46.80)
MP2 ($57.20)
CO ($10.25)
Button ($31.10)
SB ($75.90)
Hero ($101.85)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif.
2 folds, MP2 raises to $1.5, 3 folds, Hero calls $1.

Flop: ($3.25) Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 checks.

Turn: ($3.25) Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $2, MP2 raises to $4, Hero calls $2.

River: ($11.25) 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $6.5, MP2 raises to $20.5, Hero calls $14.

Final Pot: $52.25

a bet gets never ever called by a worse hand here

a K will usually call a small bet here, so not much wrong with that.

a 54/14 guy will call with a K usually if you raise him all in here. Most guys like that aren't folding full houses. Theres no need to worry about KK.

The more I think about this the more I'm inclined to believe that check/call a reasonable (~$10) bet on the river is a better play.

On the turn I have defined my hand as having an A pretty much since even if I had a K and was slowplaying trips on the flop I wouldn't now show aggression with the bottom end of the boat.

Now if we assume that even a 54/14 would realize my hand then what puts in a pot-sized raise here....I doubt an A would either would a K. That leaves two choices, KK or an A that doesn't believe me and so a call is justified.

However, going with the micro-limit adage that if someone represents the hand then they usually have it no matter how unlikely then a check to see what he does here is more in order since as was quite rightly posted above, a worse hand doesn't call here. If the pot is $11 on the river and he puts out a psb then a call is justified but I think anything more than that (at these stakes) is a justifiable fold too.

Good god felt this.

He's a 55/x? Zeebo his ass.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bigspenda73

Good god felt this.

He's a 55/x? Zeebo his ass.

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yeah. hes not folding a full house here even if its the K. i dont know how you are worrying so much about KK. just get all in.

he calls with a naked K a huge percentage of the time more than he shows up with KK

HUGE %

I actually wasn't that concerned about KK when considering the raise on the flop (I actually said in chat if he had KK then gl to him), I was actually figuring it to be a chop the majority of the time and with the only extra money in the pot being the small blind I called rather than felt to avoid losing any more to the rake than I need to.

The times we see KK here I agree aren't worth considering but surely the time we see K vs A here with no extra in the pot make it -EV to push and just lose to the rake?

fwiw he showed KK but I have tried to keep this as low on results oriented as possible.

wasnt the rake basically full anyways?
and yes its worth it this guy will stack off to you with Kx here.

Well he played it horribly