overpair against tight player
villain is 22/12 over 200 hands.
Quote:
Party Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $2/$4 Blinds - 6 Players - (
LegoPoker HH Converter)
SB: $113.50
BB: $418.30
UTG: $536.10
Hero (MP): $397.90
CO: $783.90
BTN: $67.00
Preflop: Hero is dealt 9:heart: 9:club: (6 Players)
UTG folds,
Hero raises to $14.00,
CO raises to $44.00,
3 folds, Hero calls $30.00
Flop: ($94) 8:club: 3:diamond: 7:club: (2 Players)
Hero checks, CO checks
Turn: ($94) 8:spade: (2 Players)
Hero bets $67.00, CO calls $67.00
River: ($228) 7:diamond: (2 Players)
Hero checks,
CO bets $100.00,
Hero ?
i call pf to stack an overpair with a set or because he has AK type hand. i think it is unlikely that this player is 3bet bluffing but he might be.
he checks the flop. this makes me think he has 2 overcards.
turn is a fairly safe card, i bet as a sort of blocking bet and so that he has to pay to draw out on me.
river is also quite a safe card. i check thinking he will check overcards behind. it is unlikely that he bets with overcards in an attempt for me to fold an overpair.
the 1 hand i do beat on the river is a bluff. but right from the start of the hand i think it is unlikely that he is bluffing. the only bluffing type hands i think he could play like this that i beat on the river are busted draws.
his river bet could be a cheap attempt at a bluff or it could be a value bet by TT+. he might even be value betting a boat and was bluffing pf, but then made a nice hand.
TT+ usually bets the flop though, so no hand fits perfectly.
i'm also getting over 3 to 1 PO and have to be ahead less than 25% of the time to call.
is a $30 blocking river bet a good idea? i think it is unlikely that he bluff raises me even though it looks like an obvious blocking bet to other players.
i don't have to much experience using PT stats. i've based a lot of my thought process for this hand on the fact that his PFR is 12%. am i assuming to much?
should i call or fold the river?
