Interesting river spot

Villain in this hand is Ken the Cow. he runs about 22/16 on my PT, is pretty aggro but not crazy at all. I really have never seen him do anything out of line.

I'm pretty sure that he'd reraise AQ preflop here, so i'm 90% sure i'm winning. It's really just a simple bet or check, but i'm unsure which is better.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG ($104.40)
MP ($572)
Button ($446.70)
Hero ($650.60)
BB ($459.35)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif.
1 fold, MP raises to $16, 1 fold, Hero calls $14, BB calls $12.

Flop: ($48) Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, 4http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif (3 players)
Hero bets $32, BB calls $32, MP folds.

Turn: ($112) 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $76, BB calls $76.

River: ($264) 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $176

Final Pot: $264

thumbs up!

also i would 3bet this preflop often but not always

I go super value at $85. His hand if he does have a weaker kicker Q or a J doesn't look callable for 3/4 pot river bet. But it might look fine for $70, it might look like a missed draw... for $85 its hard for him to fold if hes got a piece but for 176 its an easy fold unless he's got you.

I would only make the river bet a bit more, unless you are trying to make a bet that looks like its for value so if he calls you can bet a missed draw the same way in the future.

u can also C/C any bet which may be better

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Originally Posted by sauce123

u can also C/C any bet which may be better

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lol, this is my question.

Quote:

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It's really just a simple bet or check, but i'm unsure which is better.

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I don't think he'll bluff here very much though, doesn't seem like a good spot. But then again, i think he's rarely calling my bet.

i sometimes bet 1/3-ish pot and maybe call a raise...agree its a close decision though. a big bet seems good too, whatever might get a curiosity call.

if ur unknown to ken i might bet 120 and call a raise

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Originally Posted by sauce123

if ur unknown to ken i might bet 120 and call a raise

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I'm not unknown to him, we've just barely ever tangled. I just think 120 or below is obvious value and is almost never getting called. It seems like a lot of 400NL regs think people are bluffing a lot more often than they do, so i made the smallest bet that is still hard enough to look like a possible bluff.

you'd be very surprised at how bad people call off here. Easy bet.

this is such a common spot, so i made a summary of thoughts on betting small vs big...

small:
room for a bluff-raise
better odds to call ("for info" etc)

big:
looks more like "monster or air" which may make him more likely to call and merges your range some
if he folds, he may be more curious later if u do the same line

i guess it depends how important metagame vs immediate value is, since i think a $75-ish bet gets called/raised a lot more than a large bet.

There are strong arguments for both betting and checking.

I think you want to play this for value while avoiding any tough decisions.
I think checking best acheives this as a check may lead your opponent to bluff or bet a weaker hand that he now thinks is good as a result of your check, allowing you to make an easy call.
I cant see him calling a big bet here and wouldnt be suprised if he raised a small one sensing weakness. So for me betting looks like poorer/similiar value while creating tougher decisions for yourself.

It looks like hes on a flush draw here, which means that checking is the optimum play as he may spike a bluff on his missed draw, whereas betting will only result in a fold.

I don't understand why villain would think Massimo is bluffing no matter what size he bets the river, and it sure looks like villain could have been on a draw, so I'm gonna go with check/call. I agree that it's a terrible spot for villain to bluff, but lol they always bet.

Could you guys please explain the thought processes behind the preflop call

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Originally Posted by SmackinYaUp

Could you guys please explain the thought processes behind the preflop call

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threebetting is as lot better but since we can play a pair for decent value its not a
-EV call.