folding top set

Everyone in the pot are good solid taggs.

POKERSTARS GAME #11322086646: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($2/$4) - 2007/08/05 - 11:55:10 (ET)
Table 'Sharatan III' 6-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: heybude ($394 in chips)
Seat 2: Eliasness ($231.10 in chips)
Seat 3: iltw555 ($406.10 in chips)
Seat 4: EASTERNLIGHT ($432.40 in chips)
Seat 5: xxxTCBxxx ($477.95 in chips)
Seat 6: NutMucka ($466.70 in chips)
EASTERNLIGHT: posts small blind $2
xxxTCBxxx: posts big blind $4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to heybude [Ad Ah]
NutMucka: folds
heybude: raises $12 to $16
Eliasness: folds
iltw555: calls $16
EASTERNLIGHT: calls $14
xxxTCBxxx: calls $12
*** FLOP *** [Ts As Qs]
EASTERNLIGHT: checks
xxxTCBxxx: checks
heybude: bets $48
iltw555: folds
EASTERNLIGHT: folds
xxxTCBxxx: raises $108 to $156
heybude:

he insta raised if that makes it any different

Would he not do this with a smaller set? AK with K spades?

So sick. How often are you seeing a worse set here?

wow, i think I shove here about 99% of the time. But maybe that's bad. Just seems like given the fact that you have outs against everything but KJs and you could have him nearly drawing dead a decent amount of the time folding isn't much of an option. If you were deep it'd make it interesting, but for 100 bbs i think this is a shove/get ready to reload.

though if you think he nearly always reraises QQ and 10s preflop, then this becomes a lot more interesting and closer to a fold.

ok enough doubleposting

you're 1:2 underdog vs a made flush. all in baby.

Yah, i think i can fold 10's here, but AA..meh

AYCEB! i agree that i may fold this deeper, but not for 100bbs.

do we ever fold top set on the flop with 100bbs stacks?

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

33,660 games 0.005 secs 6,732,000 games/sec

Board: As Qs Ts
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.045% 43.08% 00.96% 14501 324.50 { AcAd }
Hand 1: 55.955% 54.99% 00.96% 18510 324.50 { TT, KsJs, 9s8s, 9s7s, 9s6s, 8s7s, 8s6s, 8s5s, 7s6s, 7s5s, 7s4s, 6s5s, 6s4s, 5s4s, KsQc, KsQd, KsQh, KJo, KsTc, KsTd, KsTh }


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Does the money already in the pot force us to play for stacks?

i think ur outguessing urself here - allin that sucker out of his seat... even if he has big draw (for example JJ) ur still good. TT ur big favorite.AKo ur good. i dont think he plays KJ there either. i think ur +EV here against all draws he can do this with.

zeroskill- dont htink thatsa good range,u used big range there i dont think many Kxo u put there he would play, also u forgot JJ,(QQ,AK).. but even for ur range the shove is ev+.

we are behind at least 90% of the time here, I'm assuming he'd reraise 10s and Qs. He must put you on a strong hand to bet into all those people on that flop so he must have a straight at worst.....so its just an odds question really - are we getting implied odds to boat up?

This guy will absolutely never show up here with QQ, rarely ever with TT and AQ, but MAYBE not likely raise with AT. KJ and a flush will raise everytime.

Toadstool, playing this for set value is pretty dumb because if he bets the turn all in the odds are almost too good to fold.

It seems like on the flop i have to be ahead somewhere around 20% of the time.

Vi zeroskill - your range is wrong because only an unbelievably huge donk would raise here with a combo draw (he may be one but probably not).

Quote:

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Originally Posted by ChrisTheFish

Yah, i think i can fold 10's here, but AA..meh

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considering he never shows up with QQ or AA it's not very different at all. In fact, TT is essentially the same decision: The one I make with AA

I think what makes me want to call is i wouldnt be completely surprised with AT and not surprised at all with AQ, which would reasonably not 3 bet here... same with TT.

With what ive seen of these players too the raise size seems to be flushy.

ISF- I think ur forgetting u have top set in this hand which is very important and that u dont have AK or AQ. plz reevaluate once that knowledge hits u

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Originally Posted by sauce123

ISF- I think ur forgetting u have top set in this hand which is very important and that u dont have AK or AQ. plz reevaluate once that knowledge hits u

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I can't tell if your saying this because I know im not a huge dog to a straight or flush, or because if we folded top set here it would mean that our opponents could just bluff us out like this on any of these type of situation.
I just realized all the hands I was beating wouldn't necessarily show up here because they wouldn't have necessarily called pre, and really the only hand that makes perfect sense is a flush or a straight.

Although obviously I called, I think that was the best decision but I thought it was an interesting decision.

odd as it may sound on that flop I probably don't bet it... too much way ahead way behind, and if we do boat up we probably take his stack

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mixchange

odd as it may sound on that flop I probably don't bet it... too much way ahead way behind, and if we do boat up we probably take his stack

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This is really bad advice, we really can't afford a check around and give everyone 9 outs to suck out.

I'm getting it in for 100BBs here almost always.

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Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mixchange

odd as it may sound on that flop I probably don't bet it... too much way ahead way behind, and if we do boat up we probably take his stack

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This is really bad advice, we really can't afford a check around and give everyone 9 outs to suck out.

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The pot isn't big and we're not paying off a single spade, so I think a check is pretty reasonable if a bit Omaha-like.

the pot is not small if he calls its -- 350 with 240 behind him.
i agree if the guy is on draw why checkand let him get out free if he miss.
push it, i believe ur folding equity is not that big (AQ,TT maybe) all draws has odds. but ur +EV so why not push there ? other option is to push turn on blank giving him around 30% to call - he may not be able to call that.

maybe call and push turn is best.

That's a really sick spot. I wonder how often BB can bluff here because of the scary board? I definetely don't think that he has a set and I do not think that he has a draw. I believe AQ/AT is most likely. I would perhaps call the raise and open push any turncard given that our stack is 'only' 100bb.

jesus, i cant stop thinking about this:
ok its simple:
he dont have flush draw he either has it made or has set/2p...nothing unsuited (correct me) fits there which would give him draw... (except AKo)
he have small flush and wwant to get action before 4th flush card comes and kill his action.. thats what i do i lead out with small flushes right away....
or he has TT or big draw with JJ or AQ/AK
comments ?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

Vi zeroskill - your range is wrong because only an unbelievably huge donk would raise here with a combo draw (he may be one but probably not).

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I hate to say it, but i don't understand why raising a combo draw on this flop would be a bad play. We can get many legitimate made hands to fold, and have 12+ outs if called. What am i missing?

Is playing the turn difficult because any hand that called a flop c/r is playing for stacks? And our equity is now ~25% instead of 50%?

What would be the best play with a combo draw on such a flop?

I might be able to fold bottom set here but definately not top set.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Vi-Zer0Skill

Quote:

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Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

Vi zeroskill - your range is wrong because only an unbelievably huge donk would raise here with a combo draw (he may be one but probably not).

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I hate to say it, but i don't understand why raising a combo draw on this flop would be a bad play. We can get many legitimate made hands to fold, and have 12+ outs if called. What am i missing?

Is playing the turn difficult because any hand that called a flop c/r is playing for stacks? And our equity is now ~25% instead of 50%?

What would be the best play with a combo draw on such a flop?

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I don't think opp expects me to fold anything i lead out except AJ and AK, and from his view i may not fold anyways.

Top set all in gambooool

Quote:

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Originally Posted by crazycrazy

the pot is not small if he calls its -- 350 with 240 behind him.
i agree if the guy is on draw why checkand let him get out free if he miss.
push it, i believe ur folding equity is not that big (AQ,TT maybe) all draws has odds. but ur +EV so why not push there ? other option is to push turn on blank giving him around 30% to call - he may not be able to call that.

maybe call and push turn is best.

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I really don't think calling is an option here. I also don't think we should even think about fold equity. He obviously has some kind of hand (given villain's description) and with the money he's committed folding would be terrible with any made hand or draw and this isn't a spewdonk. It's more about deciding if we're ahead here enough of the time to shove profitably (+times we suck out against straight/flush).

anyway, basically comes down to top set, 100 bbs all in.

Before results are posted (soon i hope!) I'm gonna put my money on bottom set for villain. Something about the size of his raise smells like 10s or like 78s.

Results!

he had KJ. And guys please stop saying "maybe bottom set but not top!" Both of them, at least ranking wise, is the same hand in this situation.

top set is better though if he ever calls TT pre flop.

i wonder exactly how often he needs AQ/TT/KsQx etc to make this worth pushing.

I think your hand is too good and that players aren't good enough.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

he had KJ. And guys please stop saying "maybe bottom set but not top!" Both of them, at least ranking wise, is the same hand in this situation.

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This is why I thought a check isn't that bad. You are in a 4 way pot, just on instinct I felt like it was likely that we're either way ahead or way behind in this spot... this kind of flop people are going to be VERY cautious on and aren't getting their money in unless they have a premium hand. I think at this level a lot of people know on a flop like this seeking the flush with one card is usually EV- and with the raises in PF I'd be fearful of a set, flush, or straight hit by any villain...

i can understand checking if you might save chips or induce some action, but here it's just giving a free card.
i mean if someone flopped a big hand, they're still getting it all in by the river with a pot this size.

this is the dumbest thread ever and is only interesting if we have AQ0 no real redraws thats the strongest hand we can fold maybe along with KQ with king of spades something like that now plz stop folding sets and make money ty.

Call with KJss and re-evaluate on the turn. Fold if the board pairs and he shows significant aggression.

Muck everything else on the flop, you're clearly beaten.

quick maths:

assumption 1: which is somewhat faulty, we assume he has a big hand everytime and we have exactly 0 fold equity. If he ever folds advantage us obviously.

Assumption 2: His range is 1 of the 3 combos of TT without the spade, 1 out of 3 of QQ without the spade, All 4 KJs combos (including the one we are drawing dead to), Js9s, 9s8s, 8s7s, KsQc. This is about .8% of card combos. The flush hands are somewhat arbitrary but we can't count all of them and I felt I was pretty generous in giving him some combos that have a bit of additional equity against us than bare 6 high flushes or whatever.

Assumption 3: We need about 41% equity against his calling range (everything) to break even on a shove. I'm not even going to attempt to quantify a call, too confusing.

Board: As Qs Ts
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.015% 44.55% 01.47% 4410 145.50 { AdAh }
Hand 1: 53.985% 52.52% 01.47% 5199 145.50 { QcQd, TcTd, KJs, Js9s, 9s8s, 8s7s, KsQc }


arrrrrrrr-in!

i'm not saying fold, but maybe I've just hit some statistically bad runs on boards like that in multiways, seems like with that many players I've gone up against the flush or straight well over half the time... could just a bad run making me paranoid

I think Lukie just killed this discussion with his simple sickness. And he didn't even include AQ!

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Originally Posted by Massimo

I think Lukie just killed this discussion with his simple sickness. And he didn't even include AQ!

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I think his range is wrong but its close enough to make it prove that i should never fold here.

case closed.

yea his range sucks, add AQ, take out QQ and KsQ, and you are now ahead

Quote:

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Originally Posted by gabe

yea his range sucks, add AQ, take out QQ and KsQ, and you are now ahead

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i had one combo of ksqx, and the difference between QQ and AQ (assuming just one combo of each) is meaningless. my point was that even if we were behind the other guy's range it was still probably a +EV shove.

also the one combo of TT and one combo of QQ could be substituted for 1.5 combos of TT and .5 combos of QQ, or 2 combos of TT and 1 combo of AQ, whatever. pretty much the same thing.