99 - 200nl

Only had like 10 hands on villan and he was something like 52/24 over it but only 10 hands...
His river bet just seems like a bluff? like AK kind of hand or slowplayed trips. what do you think?

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $1/$2 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $316.20
BB: $198.00
UTG: $185.70
MP: $200.00
CO: $301.15
Hero (BTN): $216.70

Preflop: Hero is dealt 9:spade: 9:club: (6 Players)
2 folds, CO raises to $6.00, Hero raises to $19.00, 2 folds, CO calls $13.00

Flop: ($41) 6:heart: T:club: T:diamond: (2 Players)
CO checks, Hero bets $26.00, CO calls $26.00

Turn: ($93) 5:club: (2 Players)
CO checks, Hero checks

River: ($93) Q:spade: (2 Players)
CO bets $93.00, Hero

hmm, i think i bet a little more on most streets. I make it more preflop and probably bet a little bit more on the flop.

As played, although it is tuff and looks so much like a ten, i probably call, mostly because of villains stats even given the small sample.

His range is very polarized. You have to remember that you only have to be winning 33% of the time here for this to be a good call, so it's pretty close.

yea definitley tough spot probably call....

i think i call here. This seems like a good spot to double barrell though, amirite?

Bet the turn

I fold this river as played. You gave big preflop stats but no indication of how he plays post-flop. This is just too often a donkey trying to make up value with his big hands when he lost some on the turn. I would have rather bet the turn too.

yeah i suppose i could double barrel the turn but that almost makes my hand more of a bluff? and checking keeps the pot smaller which i kind of like against a guy i dont know much about in a 3bet pot with only 99 here.
i guess i might as well post the results now... i called, he had :th::2h: lol

i would never ever call this river bet without a read-so fold

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Bode-ist

i think i call here. This seems like a good spot to double barrell though, amirite?

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I don't like a turn bet, since we are behind almost any hand that calls a turn bet and we have showdown value against a lot of the hands this player would c/c the flop with. It's also very unlikely villain is holding a drawing hand, and there is only 1 more card left to come.

This doesn't look like a line that an aggro donkey would take. I would expect him to make a move earlier in the hand than on the river.

3 bet for more preflop!

whats the point of 3betting more than this in position?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by EzDuzIt

whats the point of 3betting more than this in position?

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15:1 set odds on your 3betting range preflop are really good.


True you lose less when called since you are going to be bluffing more often IP, but you will get a ton of action on your 3bets just because of the PO/IO you are offereing.

As long as you aren't stacking of light you're not really offering him 15:1. I don't think there is anything wrong with 3-bet size.

I think I b/f turn and I'm not calling the river. If it was 1/2 pot I'd call.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Vi-Zer0Skill

I don't like a turn bet, since we are behind almost any hand that calls a turn bet and we have showdown value against a lot of the hands this player would c/c the flop with. It's also very unlikely villain is holding a drawing hand, and there is only 1 more card left to come.

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I agree, you don't need to bet the turn here.

Hypothetically, and assuming 100xBB stacks, if you were to call a late position 4xBB open from the BTN with a small pair, you would be getting 25:1 IO. Those are great odds except against the loosest and best postflop players, and therefore a call would almost never be a -EV play (3betting would probably be more +EV, but my point still stands). Though most players are opening a wider range from late positions, 25:1 odds on their stack is still way too good to pass up.

I am going to assume EZDuzit's 3bets ~8-10% of his total hands preflop. If he has a 22-28% PFR in later positions, then he is 3betting ~1/3 of his opening range from those positions - which is reasonable.

For villain in the posted hand, he is being offered 15:1 on EzDuzit's 3bet range, which in absolute terms is fairly small. And EzDuzit will stack off on the flop sometimes (like when he is actually holding Q-Q+, or has A-K and hits TPTK, or if he flops some other second best hand to a set). Calling EzDuzit's 3bet with the IO's villain is being offered would not be a mistake, and in fact is probably the optimal play in that spot.

yeah but im not going to stack off that much when he hits a set and if he wants to come along with a smaller pp im pretty much winning the pot every time he doesnt make a set or some other hand.