Top set, deep on drawy board vs NIT

- Villain is a NIT post flop, 22/7/.98 over 700ish hands
-He has called my PF raises all day somewhat loosely, but has folded to almost ALL of my continuation bets
-He hasn't raised me once all day, and when he's raised other players he often shows up with the nuts/near nuts
-I'm very confident he's not raising a draw here
-whats the best play on the flop? I'm somewhat worried here about 67 (is that stupid?), but obviously not folding... at least not yet....

Cryptologic
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $2/$5
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $500
Hero: $2181.14
Button: $1245.25
SB: $218.21
BB: $615.62

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is CO with :8d: :8s:
UTG folds, Hero raises to $20, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: :4h: :5d: :8h: ($80, 4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $45, Button raises to $175, 2 folds, Hero ??

Get it in. I 3-bet to $450. That will allow you to open shove the turn for less than pot. If your read is right his range is 55/44/76 here, all of which are getting it in now, even 250bb deep. If you call to see a turn, a lot of cards will make villain slow down with a set. And if you has the nuts you still have 33% equity.

Hands he thinks are the nuts. 44, 55, 67.

Combinations

44 : 3 x 2 = 6
55 : 3 x 2 = 6
67 : 4 x 3 = 12

So you are 50/50 as to whether you are ahead or behind.


Equity vs

44/55: almost all of it
67: 30% ish.



[Edit: Oops. 67 is 4 x 4 = 16. so he is 16:12 to have a straight. But pushing should still be pretty +EV ]


So pushing here should be pretty +EV especially if he will sometimes do this with an overpair/draw.

What are the chances he stacks off with 67 after the board pairs? If he wont then Id guess its better to push now so that scarecards dont kill your action Vs a set.

Fuuuuuuuck, are you kidding? I want your hand.

Top set second nuts on combo draw heavy baord is insta-felt if appropo. No matter how well you think you read villian.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by wufwugy

Fuuuuuuuck, are you kidding? I want your hand.

Top set second nuts on combo draw heavy baord is insta-felt if appropo. No matter how well you think you read villian.

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Haha... well no worries, I didn't fold.

Just wondering, given how nitty villain is and stack sizes/board what the best line is here.

I called, but people seem to be saying I should jam the flop right now.. so wondering if calling might not be the best line. This is the line I took.

Cryptologic
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $2/$5
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $500
Hero: $2181.14
Button: $1245.25
SB: $218.21
BB: $615.62

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is CO with :8d: :8s:
UTG folds, Hero raises to $20, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: :4h: :5d: :8h: ($80, 4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $45, Button raises to $175, 2 folds, Hero calls.

Turn: :2c: ($430, 2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $400, Hero raises all-in $1986.14

Rule of thumb: When there are draws on board (not necessarily in villian's hand) and you have a felting hand, don't stop raising.

i dont see a reason to stop betting against this player

srsly bet more on the flop

When you are in this position and have found a nit that likes his hand shouldn't we be betting as we are sure he will at least call if not raise? Surely we don't need to strong arm him with a check raise? Plus also doesn't this give him a chance to think about folding?