open ended straight draw + flush draw on river

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09-02-2007, 05:10 PM
mojoNOgo

open ended straight draw + flush draw on river

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed)

SB ($9.85)
Hero ($10.30)
UTG ($8.90)
MP ($14.05)
CO ($4.10)
Button ($3.40)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif.
1 fold, MP calls $0.10, CO calls $0.10, 1 fold, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: ($0.40) 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif (4 players)
SB bets $0.4, Hero calls $0.40, MP calls $0.40, CO folds.

Turn: ($1.60) Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1.5, MP folds, SB raises to $6.1, Hero ? ? ? ?
--------
only 10 hands with this guy and this is his first play .
are my draws worthy of a call ? a push ?
09-02-2007, 07:42 PM
Pelion

Dont push. You have 0 fold equity and you are only 1/3 to win against whatever his hand is. calling and folding the river unimproved/ shoving if you hit is much better than shoving now.

Whether or not you can call is just a pot odds question. You have to call $4.60 so you need to win at least $9.20. Theres $9.20 in the pot already so you can call. Hes not folding any pair on the river whatever happens.
09-03-2007, 12:26 AM
martindcx1e

fold. you are like 32% to make your hand, and it will cost you $4.60 to win a $9.20 pot. also, you have no FE so don't push.
09-03-2007, 06:37 AM
Pelion

Quote:

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

fold. you are like 32% to make your hand, and it will cost you $4.60 to win a $9.20 pot. also, you have no FE so don't push.

erm. Isnt that how much we need to be to win to make it a call?? Also the end pot will be closer to $12 since we have no FE...
09-03-2007, 06:52 AM
minSim

Of course villain goes all in on the river anyways, so it's 4,60 to win 12,50, which is 1:2,7. (it's call or fold, never push here)

If at least 13 outs (1:2,5) are clean you'll win. Sometimes you'll have those, sometimes not. I think I fold because of higher flushes sometimes, but it's so close that it doesn't really matter what you do.
09-03-2007, 08:08 AM
bode

i bet more like $1.20 on the turn and fold if he raises big still. villain shows up with a set here alot so both hands you are drawing to get counterfieted when the board pairs.
09-03-2007, 04:20 PM
martindcx1e

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pelion

Quote:

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

fold. you are like 32% to make your hand, and it will cost you $4.60 to win a $9.20 pot. also, you have no FE so don't push.

erm. Isnt that how much we need to be to win to make it a call?? Also the end pot will be closer to $12 since we have no FE...

The pot is $9.20. The call would be $4.60. That is 50% of the pot. We are 32-33% to hit so why would we call 50% of the pot when when we are only 32-33% to hit? Even if we calculate the rest of villain's stack here and made it $4.60 to win $12.45 that is only 37%, and we are only 32-33% to hit.
09-03-2007, 04:54 PM
bode

Quote:

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pelion

Quote:

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

fold. you are like 32% to make your hand, and it will cost you $4.60 to win a $9.20 pot. also, you have no FE so don't push.

erm. Isnt that how much we need to be to win to make it a call?? Also the end pot will be closer to $12 since we have no FE...

The pot is $9.20. The call would be $4.60. That is 50% of the pot. We are 32-33% to hit so why would we call 50% of the pot when when we are only 32-33% to hit? Even if we calculate the rest of villain's stack here and made it $4.60 to win $12.45 that is only 37%, and we are only 32-33% to hit.

we would be calling $4.60 into a pot thats already $9.20, getting 2:1 odds when we are roughly 33% to win. So its a break even situation really.
09-03-2007, 05:43 PM
martindcx1e

Quote:

Originally Posted by bode

Quote:

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pelion

Quote:

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

fold. you are like 32% to make your hand, and it will cost you $4.60 to win a $9.20 pot. also, you have no FE so don't push.

erm. Isnt that how much we need to be to win to make it a call?? Also the end pot will be closer to $12 since we have no FE...

The pot is $9.20. The call would be $4.60. That is 50% of the pot. We are 32-33% to hit so why would we call 50% of the pot when when we are only 32-33% to hit? Even if we calculate the rest of villain's stack here and made it $4.60 to win $12.45 that is only 37%, and we are only 32-33% to hit.

we would be calling $4.60 into a pot thats already $9.20, getting 2:1 odds when we are roughly 33% to win. So its a break even situation really.

oh ya you guys are right :D
09-04-2007, 08:10 PM
will641

definitley fold, people at this limit basically only raise the nuts, and you wouldnt even get that much more money out of him if you hit.
09-04-2007, 09:57 PM
IowaSkinsFan

I'm still questioning the turn bet, in fact I think I don't like it. I don't think sb ever folds a Q here to one bet and when someone leads an unraised pot like that warning signs are going off that he has two pair/set.
09-04-2007, 11:28 PM
martindcx1e

Quote:

Originally Posted by will641

definitley fold, people at this limit basically only raise the nuts, and you wouldnt even get that much more money out of him if you hit.

although it isn't a guarantee that villain will put the rest in on the river no matter what, it is very very very likely. as said earlier calling is break-even if we assume our outs are clean. that is just plain math (33% to hit, $4.60 to win $9.20 so 2 out of 3 times we lose $4.60 which equals $9.20, and 1 out of 3 times we win $9.20).
09-05-2007, 06:22 AM
Pelion

Quote:

Originally Posted by will641

definitley fold, people at this limit basically only raise the nuts, and you wouldnt even get that much more money out of him if you hit.

That makes no sense. We dont need to get much money out of him when we hit because we are getting just about the direct pot odds we need. If you think he only raises the nuts here then theres no way hes getting away on the river with less than pot behind.
09-05-2007, 12:17 PM
Numbr2intheWorld

I think it's more likely he has A5, A6, AQ here than a set.

Anyways, i don't think you should fold here when you almost have expressed odds, your in position and your practically guaranteed the rest of his stack if you hit (and sometimes you'll get stacked, but it's probably still worth it).