Starfleet Selections: NFL Week 1
Hey y'all:
Allright, we're only days away from the season opener. WOOOHOOOOOOO! I'm very excited, not the least of which because the Texans will take the field Sunday and I'll get to see my boys in action when it counts. If what I've seen so far is any indication, this will be a VERY fun season for Texans fans. Woooohoooo!
But I'm sure you didn't come hear to read THAT. :D
When I saw the line come out for the Saints/Colts game, I was like "wah?!?!". -6.5 Colts . Accounting for home field advantage, that would mean that the Colts would still be favored by a half point if this game was at New Orleans. That doesn't ring true to me. It just doesn't.
So let's break down this game:
For starters, let's look at what's happened this offseason, starting with the Colts:
The Colts released a good portion of their defense, letting BOTH starting corners go, along with starting lineback Cato June. Moreover, they lost their starting LT, Tarik Glenn, this offseason. This will hurt MUCH more than I think most people realize; As a Texans fan, I know just how important the LT is to a functioning offense. Second round pick Ugoh was drafted to replace Glenn in the future, not today, and I really just don't think that he's up for the challenge. Rookie left tackles thrust into the fire rarely are.
The Colts were always a team that had some really highly paid players and others who were there to fill the gaps; success with this type of team is rarely sustainable, since teams like this tend to have little depth. Though this may not be that important for this game, it is important to note for the future as well.
Now, let's look at the Saints offseason:
The Saints didn't lose anyone irreplaceable this offseason. Joe Horn will be an emotional loss, but fortunately for the Saints, his playmaking skills on the field can be picked up by someone else. As much as I hate Bush and all the BSPN hype surrounding him, I have to admit that coach Sean Peyton couldn't have played him any better. McAllister will still be the frontline RB that will be able to move the chains, taking pressure off of Bush and (more importantly) opening up the passing game for Brees. This offense is amazing, period, end of story.
OK, game matchup time:
The Saints aren't as good as the Colts. But they're not as far behind as this line seems to suggest. I'd put the line as Colts -3.5, maybe Colts -4. Colts -6.5 is a little much to me. I think the oddsmakers are inflating this line because the Colts were last year's superbowl champions. The moneyline is at around +230. If the Saints win this game just once in every three games, betting the moneyline would already be +EV; and I think the Saints will win this game a little less than half the time: maybe 40% at worst.
Plus, if you believe in trends and what not, the superbowl champion of the prior year usually doesn't cover the spread of the first game they play. Yes, I know Pitt did it last year (and helped cover my free $1000 mansion bet. woohoo!), but statistically, the superbowl champion doesn't cover.
I think the Colts lost a little too much and the Saints proved that they were much better than everyone else had estimated them to be last year. Saints moneyline for me. I'll be waiting 'till later to bet, because last I looked, around 60+% of the bets were on the Colts. I'd like to get a better number, if I can.
Another bet I can see for this game is the UNDER. Yes, I know these two teams have explosive offenses. But there are several factors that are inclining me to bet the under.
1) This is the first game of the season and therefore the coaches will still be shaking off some of the rust of the offseason. Yes, I know that's what preseason is for, but I think that conservative tendency will be present nonetheless and will result in more conservative running plays that will eat clock.
2) This is the first game of the season (yes, I know I started reason 1 with that. :D) and therefore lots of the public will be putting money on this game. Everyone looks at the Colts and looks at the Saints and goes "oooooh, fireworks. What? the total's only at 51?" and bets the over. This is in addition to the normal public tendency to bet the over anyway.
I'll probably bet this much closer to gametime, as I think the public will drive the total a few points higher before the game kicks off. This may be a play that I don't actually play until a minute before kickoff or so. But I'm letting you know I will be on it NOW.
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Allright, well, that's my analysis and my bets for the first game. Hope that helped someone. Good luck y'all and have fun!
