Big Fucking Bluff vs. TAG, 100NL

~120BB effective stacks I think. Opponent is a solid TAG, 18/14 with a 5.1 AF over 150 hands. I have a note on him that says "threebarrelled QQ overpair pretty hard".

What do you think? Also, is flop and turn ok? Oh, and wtf does he have? Tens or Jacks makes the most sense but given the notes idk if he c/c turn with them.

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Dealer: Corner55 posts Small Blind $0.50
Dealer: Bastike posts Big Blind $1


Dealer: Dealing cards
Dealer: Your cards :Td: :9d:
Dealer: IIKingAdRockII raises $4
Dealer: R3sistance calls $4
Dealer: christianito calls $4
3 folds


Dealer: Dealing Flop
:7s: :3c: :8c:
Dealer: IIKingAdRockII bets $10
Dealer: R3sistance calls $10
Dealer: christianito folds


Dealer: Dealing Turn
:8s:
Dealer: IIKingAdRockII checks
Dealer: R3sistance bets $21
Dealer: IIKingAdRockII calls $21


Dealer: Dealing River
:Kd:
Dealer: IIKingAdRockII bets $24
Dealer: R3sistance goes All-in $82.15

I hate it. Your hand looks like a bluff. 98 is about the only good hand that fits your line, and you should bet the turn harder with that hand. Just fold the river.

it's OKAY but tbh I check turn, idk what he's folding to a turn bet and your overcards aren't good.

I think your bluff is close to 0 EV. But if I had to guess probably -EV rather than +EV.

When someone makes a bluff, I always tell them "tell me a hand they are folding." Unfortunately, this guys range is too huge to just say 99-QQ.

i dont mind it but if hes half decent he'll look you up lots and lots here.
youre notre suggests he isnt folding a big pair so i wouldnt consider this.

Fwiw the turn bet was to fold unpaired hole cards.. Are these not very prominent in his range seeing as he raised UTG pre?

Check the turn, he usually is c/c.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Ash256

Fwiw the turn bet was to fold unpaired hole cards.. Are these not very prominent in his range seeing as he raised UTG pre?

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UTG + bet into three people + two draws = no overcards that dont have a draw arent a prominent part of his range.

Honestly, i can almost tell from the title itself that i don't like this.

I wouldn't have minded it if you raised the flop. I rarely your play on the river done with missed draws but your line looks to fishy not get looked a majority of the time here.

Ty for the advice so far guys.

Also: I was planning to give up on the hand after he c/c the turn, but his gaybet made me feel that he had a medium holding and couldn't tell whether I was very strong or very weak.. Imean, c'mon, 1/4 pot?

Turn suckage noted.

results?