Shallow Stacks for a Great river to Bluff?

Villain’s 3 betting range is pretty tight (17/12).

Who likes a river push for the rest of it? God I wish there were more behind…

$200 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Monday, September 10, 10:48:58 ET 2007
Table Jackpot #1304230 (No DP) (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 4: KoloT5 ( $272.25 USD )
Seat 5: FRAZ005 ( $418.20 USD )
Seat 6: HERO ( $197 USD )
Seat 3: IT_IS_FUN ( $260.10 USD )
Seat 2: dimir73 ( $108.30 USD )
Seat 1: VILLAIN ( $188 USD )
dimir73 posts small blind [$1 USD].
IT_IS_FUN posts big blind [$2 USD].

** Dealing down cards **

Dealt to HERO :qs: :qc:
KoloT5 folds.
FRAZ005 folds.
HERO raises [$7 USD]
VILLAIN raises [$20 USD]
dimir73 folds.
IT_IS_FUN folds.
HERO calls [$13 USD]

** Dealing Flop ** (40$ pot) :2d: :jd: :5c:

HERO checks.
VILLAIN bets [$30 USD]
HERO calls [$30 USD]

** Dealing Turn ** (100$ pot) :8d:

HERO bets [$65 USD]
VILLAIN calls [$65 USD]

** Dealing River ** (230$ pot) :td:

HERO… (75ish effective left behind)

edit : as I write this I realize this could be way way off...

Even though there isn't a lot of money behind, you should be able to get him to fold A-A or K-K without a diamond, or possibly even a set. This is a somewhat thin play, but I wouldn't be surprised if it showed a profit.

I probably 4bet this pre. As played, i like a river shove as you'll likely get him off most hands besides a decent diamond.

I don't like leading the turn.

Villain's range after the flop:
1). J-J+
2). A-Q/A-K
3). Ad-Qd/Ad-Kd

If villain bets the turn, you are way behind and can fold. If you bet, you aren't getting him to fold much of anything he would bet the flop with that would also bet the turn with if checked to.

So, i c/f the turn.

As played, river shove is marginal since villain would be getting such good pot odds with K-K/A-A that i think the only hand he would fold is Q-Q no diamond.

The turn just completely fucked you.
Idk what I think of the turn lead. It seems so weak to c/f here, and i hate a c/r all in. Lead actually may be the best play.
River shove kind of sucks because when villain calls the turn i expect him to have a diamond in his hand, less likely AA/KK with no diamond that's scared shitless.
OH and note guys its very important that opp, if he holds QQ, holds a diamond 100% of the time. DUCY?

Against a tight player, I think check-folding the turn is the safe (and almost certainly correct) play.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by dsaxton

Against a tight player, I think check-folding the turn is the safe (and almost certainly correct) play.

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agreed

i have been experimenting a lot since getting back (i.e. playing badly)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

OH and note guys its very important that opp, if he holds QQ, holds a diamond 100% of the time. DUCY?

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:doh: