A-9s 200NL Too thin VB?

Villain is a crappy reg, 22/7 over 350 hands. I left Player 3's stack size because i was attempting to isolate him on the flop.

I figure villain probably has a FD or A-x. He plays med strength hands passively, so i know he doesn't have a set and is not smart enough to go for a c/r as a bluff.

If i had A-7 i would check here, but does A-9 have enough value to bet here? Does A-7 actually have enough value to bet also? I don't know how often he has a pocket pair here, but i wouldn't think he would have 7-7 or something like that often at all.

Villain: ($271.70 in chips)
Hero: ($212 in chips)
Player 3: ($48.05 in chips)

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero: [Ah 9h]
Player 3: checks
Villain: calls $2
Hero: calls $2
Player 1: calls $1
Player 2: checks
*** FLOP *** [3s As 4c]
Player 1: checks
Player 2: checks
Player 3: bets $6
Villain: calls $6
Hero: raises $42 to $48
3 folds
Villain: calls $42
*** TURN *** [3s As 4c] [6d]
Villain: checks
Hero: checks
*** RIVER *** [3s As 4c 6d] [Kh]
Villain: checks
Hero: bets $92

i d like it a lot more if you had AJ or AQ

I think you could bet a little less hoping he ll call with KsXs

Just a small detail though. I think in general a bet here is slightly better than a check esp vs a bad player even though AT and AJ are a decent part of his range

i like a smaller bet too like 1/3 pot. and why not raise pre? and to like 20-24 on the flop?

raise preflop
on his stats providing he isnt limping hands that 22/7 suggests he would raise we are ahead of his range and need to isolate.
on flop id peel a card and look at everyone's turn play. wa/wb type thing

The reason i decided not to raise preflop was because i didn't want to have to bet/call an ugly flop like Q-7-10 vs the shortstack.

Benny, i almost went with a smaller raise then decided if the regular had a draw he would be getting great odds to call. But he gets good odds with either sized raise so i can see the value in a smaller one. If the shortstack had pushed over my smaller raise and the regular called, would you call/raise?

Also, why don't you guys think a $35 bet gets called more often than a $90 bet given the board texture?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Vi-Zer0Skill

The reason i decided not to raise preflop was because i didn't want to have to bet/call an ugly flop like Q-7-10 vs the shortstack.

Benny, i almost went with a smaller raise then decided if the regular had a draw he would be getting great odds to call. But he gets good odds with either sized raise so i can see the value in a smaller one. If the shortstack had pushed over my smaller raise and the regular called, would you call/raise?

Also, why don't you guys think a $35 bet gets called more often than a $90 bet given the board texture?

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i think you meant to ask "why DO you guys think it gets called more often" about the 35$ bet, right?

I just think it's unlikely you're getting called on a big bet by a worse ace. That being said, villain can easily be playing a hand like AT or AJ passively so you'd be just value-towning yourself.

Trying to get a big bet called by A2, A5, A7 and A8 seems a little thin. I still think betting is good, just not a big one without strange history between the two of you.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Vi-Zer0Skill

The reason i decided not to raise preflop was because i didn't want to have to bet/call an ugly flop like Q-7-10 vs the shortstack.

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you have position and usually the best hand. i bet the shorty and blinds fold at least half the time, and the limper is in a crap spot. if shorty calls, you dont have to cbet.

Quote:

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Benny, i almost went with a smaller raise then decided if the regular had a draw he would be getting great odds to call. But he gets good odds with either sized raise so i can see the value in a smaller one. If the shortstack had pushed over my smaller raise and the regular called, would you call/raise?

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since villain acts after the shorty, a $20ish raise can act like a $48 raise if the shorty pushes ahead of him but keeps the pot more reasonable sized.
if the shorty pushed and he calls, id normally put him on a better hand and fold, unless hes just super loose post flop. or if shorty folds and villain calls, i'd figure he has a draw mostly and bet the turn.

on the river, i think this villain will just see a big bet and fold Kxs or a weaker ace...but i could be wrong about that. he might see a small bet as you pushing him off a weak draw, or just get curious and call with something random.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by benny999

you have position and usually the best hand. i bet the shorty and blinds fold at least half the time, and the limper is in a crap spot. if shorty calls, you dont have to cbet.

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Okay, i see what you guys are saying here.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by benny999

since villain acts after the shorty, a $20ish raise can act like a $48 raise if the shorty pushes ahead of him but keeps the pot more reasonable sized.
if the shorty pushed and he calls, id normally put him on a better hand and fold, unless hes just super loose post flop. or if shorty folds and villain calls, i'd figure he has a draw mostly and bet the turn.

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I think this villain would probably call with a drawing hand here. But against a better opponent i can see why folding is best.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by benny999

on the river, i think this villain will just see a big bet and fold Kxs or a weaker ace...but i could be wrong about that. he might see a small bet as you pushing him off a weak draw, or just get curious and call with something random.

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Well, i am not trying to VB another A-x hand, since with all the low cards on the board and my weak kicker, there aren't many Aces that call the river bet that i beat. I just don't think that his calling frequency changes much whether me make a smaller VB or a big one, since what could we be betting this river with besides A-x or better/missed draw? And IMO most players do not percieve a small river bet to be a bluff.


Thanks to everyone for your responses.

Villain's range on the river seems like it could only be missed draws or another A-x hand. This guy would definitely lead the river with two pair or better.

Rough assumption of villain's range/decision:

A-x : 100% call (~50% win Z 50% lose Z) Ev = ~0
K-xs: ?% call
Xs-Xs: 100% fold (100% win o) Ev = ~0

So the question is; does he call with Ks-xs a high enough % of the time when facing a $35 bet compared to a $90 one that the $35 is more profitable? Any second best hands he could show up with on the river i am not thinking of?

The flop raise is ridiculous. Make a smaller raise for one; second, betting something on the turn and showing it down on the river is much better than this line.

Also, the prevailing opinion that you have to raise preflop in these situations is wrong. Limping here is a completely justifiable alternate play.

fold to flop bet.

and raise preflop.