Like the TMQ, all picks guaranteed wrong or you money back 3
SageStats ensign_lee
http://www.sagestats.com/img/graph/s...c4c7089d7f.png
YTD: 5-10-1
Units Won: -11.59
~~~
Well, if the object was fading me, you would have done EXTREMELY WELL so far! haha. But it's ok; it's a long season, and hopefully I have what it takes to turn this around. One week at a time.
So, here we go!
Sea -3.5 (+111)
2 units at matchbook
Seattle plays extremely well at home, in case nobody's noticed. Here, they're getting to face a Cincinnati team that has to be tired after last week's debacle. I've found that fading teams that just played in a hard fought either rivalry game or divisional game is +EV.
Matt Hasslebeck was this close to pulling out the game last week against Arizona. Even though the offensive line is throwing kinks at him like never before, I still have confidence in him and Alexander to get the job done against Cincy here.
Oak -3 (-104.5)
2 units at matchbook / justbet
Cleveland is not as good as they seemed last week. I mean, holy hell, they looked pretty good on offense last week. But I don't think that's anywhere near sustainable. They were the other party in that fierce "leave it all on the field" fight last week with Cincy. I also think that they'll just run out of gas here.
This is more of a play fading Cleveland rather than betting on Oakland. Even Oakland can get a bone every once in awhile, right? Oh boy...I'm betting on Oakland again, aren't I? Wish me luck?
Stl M/L (+180.32)
1 unit at matchbook
Tampa Bay sure looked good last week against the Saints, eh? Meanwhile, the Rams sure looked terrible last week, didn't they?
I think this line is an overreaction. Tampa is not as good as they seemed last week; St. Louis can't possibly be as bad as this line would suggest. You're telling me that if Tampa went into St. Louis, this line would be Rams -2.5 and not -3? Huh.
All in all, even assuming that these teams were evenly matched (and I honestly think that St. Louis is still the more talented team), then this bet would be +EV. Go go Rams go?
Denver / Jacksonville OVER 36 (-105)
1 unit at BetTrojan
This is a play I'm taking on the advice of a fellow handicapper. It also helps that the Pinny lean is on this play, with Pinny hold Over 36 at -110 while other books are either A) holding 35.5 (-110) or B) holding 35 (-110). Not only is pinny holding the highest number, but they are holding juice against it so that people would be indifferent towards taking this bet at Pinny or at a normal full juice book.
Honestly, if you can play this at over 35.5 (-110) instead of over 36, I'd recommend you do that. Unfortunately, none of my books seems to give me this option, so I took the best I could: Over 36 (-105).
Washington / New York OVER 41
1 unit at BetTrojan
This is a play base purely on the Pinny lean. Pinny is holding the over 41 at (-115) juice, holding the under at (+105) correspondingly. In other words, if Pinnacle is going to hold OVER 41 as a bet, they would pay (-105) for it. Anything that Pinnacle is willing to take, I'm willing to take. Weeh over 41 (-105)!
