BBJ EV

BBJ tables tend to be fishier than your average table for any given stakes but I have still always avoided them due to the insane rake (I play 6max FL so the rake REALLY hurts).

What I'm wondering is, at what point does the BBJ become +EV? Assuming that for every raked hand an extra $0.50 is taken to contribute to the BBJ, and that 70% of the BBJ is distributed among the 6 players at my table if hit, how high does the BBJ need to be before this becomes +EV? I did some really scrappy calculations last night and came up with a ball-park figure of $500,000 but am not so sure now.

Any good mathematicians wanna try and come up with a figure?

Note: Please also include in your assumptions that nobody on my table lives in or around the Doncaster (UK) area.

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Originally Posted by Jibalob

BBJ tables tend to be fishier than your average table for any given stakes but I have still always avoided them due to the insane rake (I play 6max FL so the rake REALLY hurts).

What I'm wondering is, at what point does the BBJ become +EV? Assuming that for every raked hand an extra $0.50 is taken to contribute to the BBJ, and that 70% of the BBJ is distributed among the 6 players at my table if hit, how high does the BBJ need to be before this becomes +EV? I did some really scrappy calculations last night and came up with a ball-park figure of $500,000 but am not so sure now.

Any good mathematicians wanna try and come up with a figure?

Note: Please also include in your assumptions that nobody on my table lives in or around the Doncaster (UK) area.

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The bonuswhores website used to have charts that gave this information for different sites with BBJ's I think.

i think you kind of answered your own question.

the BBJ becomes +EV only if the fish are following it. and, i can see your dilema playing limit. wow.

i know you wanted a mathematical answer, but the "fish factor" is enough for me.

No problemo, its not too much of a problem for me right now anyway because the only site I'm currently playing where people actually play the BBJ tables is pacific... and if you cant win there you need more help than wondering whether or not the BBJ is +/-EV!

The reason I ask is that I will probably soon move my Prima roll to Party/Empire because Prima's traffic is pretty much non-existant.

yeah, i miss the pacific days....damned US regs.

but at least Doyles just reopened....big Fing deal. i want party and pacific back.

You guys really play at the BBJ tables just because the players there are normally worse?

This is something i hadn't considered... I'm assuming it's not to try and win the BBJ as the odds are like worse than the lottery or something lol, but at what stakes do the fish actually matter anyway?

I mean i play at party, 25 and 50NL. The players there really aren't that amazing anyway, so does it only become profitable after say 100/200NL?

Clar

That the question I'm asking really... at what point does the jackpot itself become +EV

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Originally Posted by spoonitnow

The bonuswhores website still has charts that give this information for different sites with BBJ's I think.

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Originally Posted by grnydrowave2

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Originally Posted by spoonitnow

The bonuswhores website still has charts that give this information for different sites with BBJ's I think.

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Oops.

Thanks!

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Originally Posted by Jibalob

At what point does the BBJ become +EV? Assuming that for every raked hand an extra $0.50 is taken to contribute to the BBJ, and that 70% of the BBJ is distributed among the 6 players at my table if hit, how high does the BBJ need to be before this becomes +EV? I did some really scrappy calculations last night and came up with a ball-park figure of $500,000 but am not so sure now.

Any good mathematicians wanna try and come up with a figure?

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I'm not sure I'm a good mathematician, but here's some probabilities. Of the (52 choose 7 = ) 133,784,560 possible 7-card hands possible, exactly 134,044 of them are quad 8's + (needed to qualify for BBJ at UB), 1 per thousand hands.

To occur twice in the same NLH hand, both players would use the same community cards which makes the calculations very intractable, so consider the following:

1. Two 7-card stud hands are dealt at random from two different decks.
2. Both hands dealt are quad 8's or better.

The probability of this occurring is (1/1000)^2, or 1 in a million. However, this OVERESTIMATES that likelihood of these hands occurring simultaneously in NLH for several reasons. The most obvious reason is that there are 5 community cards in NLH which limits the total number of combinations possible. But your odds of being in a hand that wins the BBJ are no better than 1 in a million.

The "big winner" of the BBJ gets 25% of the jackpot (at UB), and $0.50 worth of EXTRA rake is taken from each raked hand. So per hand, hero is taking a 1 in a million shot at 1/4 of the BBJ, and pays $.50 out of every raked pot he takes down to do so. Among equally talented players at 6-max, each person would win 1/6 of the raked hands. Assuming 90% of hands get raked, this would mean hero is paying $0.075 per hand for a shot at the BBJ.

Since 0.075 x 13.333 = 1, we can convert the 4 million to 1 odds into odds per-hand-played by dividing 4 million by 13.333. This estimate gives a BBJ of $300,000. Note that this is conservative, because the probabilities of winning are overestimated and because GOOD players pay more rake than bad players (and hero, here, is assumed to be good). Your half million estimate is reasonable, given the assumptions I just outlined.

A GOOD player wishing to profit should play the HIGHEST limit BBJ tables. The cost-per-hand is the same regardless of level, but the extra rake will erode regular poker earnings much less at higher limits.

In thinking about the (worse than) million to 1 odds against a BBJ being activated, I wondered how often does a BBJ get won? UB started their BBJ on 9/24 and have already had (at least) one table of winners. So...how many hands of BBJ poker does one of these sites deal per day?

Consider this - at slightly less than 100 hands / hour, a typical table would deal about 2,000 hands per day. At UB, they generally have between 10 - 40 games of 6-max at my level, so let's say 20 on average are running at that rate. So 40,000 hands/day. That's 1.2 million hands per month at ONE LEVEL. Assuming they're running a couple million BBJ-eligible hands each month, some table should win it about once a month in the long run. In the short run, it's won just often enough to keep dumb people paying the extra rake.

Unfortunately I can't find any links now, but there's been lots of debate about BBJ and some sound posts/articles with heavy math in it. Anyways, what I do remember is general consensus:

BBJ = thinly concealed robbery

It's very debatable if chasing fish there is worth it. Try taking a fresh look at your PT stats, see how much you've won and how much of 'standard' rake you've paid during that time and now imagine extra rake and how it might affect your win rate. Doesn't look promising, eh?

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Originally Posted by Sheetah

Unfortunately I can't find any links now, but there's been lots of debate about BBJ and some sound posts/articles with heavy math in it. Anyways, what I do remember is general consensus:

BBJ = thinly concealed robbery

It's very debatable if chasing fish there is worth it. Try taking a fresh look at your PT stats, see how much you've won and how much of 'standard' rake you've paid during that time and now imagine extra rake and how it might affect your win rate. Doesn't look promising, eh?

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LOL FUCKING LOL.

Although you are right.

I read the fine print of UB's BBJ while amassing the data for my earlier posts. I agree with Miffed. It's a joke. Each time the BBJ is won, the "house" gets 10%. For what? It's a fee you pay for poker stupidity.

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Originally Posted by Robb

I read the fine print of UB's BBJ while amassing the data for my earlier posts. I agree with Miffed. It's a joke. Each time the BBJ is won, the "house" gets 10%. For what? It's a fee you pay for poker stupidity.

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dude, i was being ironic.
Ive been at a table twice where the BBj has gone off.....twice

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Originally Posted by Miffed22001

dude, i was being ironic.
Ive been at a table twice where the BBj has gone off.....twice

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AWESOME!! Congrats - that's really cool!!

Here's the question that was asked - is it +EV to be there? The answer is "yes" provided you can outearn the rake + BBJ drop. Then you can wait around for fortune to smile on you - even at odds that are a billion to one against.

BTW, quick inspection shows about a 10% see-the-flop increase in the BBJ tables vs. regular. That's probably enough to justify the extra BBJ drop right there. What's your experience, Miffed? Can you win at those tables straight up, w/o winning the lottery?

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Originally Posted by Robb

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Originally Posted by Miffed22001

dude, i was being ironic.
Ive been at a table twice where the BBj has gone off.....twice

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AWESOME!! Congrats - that's really cool!!

Here's the question that was asked - is it +EV to be there? The answer is "yes" provided you can outearn the rake + BBJ drop. Then you can wait around for fortune to smile on you - even at odds that are a billion to one against.

BTW, quick inspection shows about a 10% see-the-flop increase in the BBJ tables vs. regular. That's probably enough to justify the extra BBJ drop right there. What's your experience, Miffed? Can you win at those tables straight up, w/o winning the lottery?

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i never ever played on a BBJ table on any site below 1/2.

As at 1/2 you pay gross rake anyways playing the BBj just exacerbates the problem, but on a lot of sites, party+AP come to mind, the action IS much better so id sit down now take my rb and softer games (relativly speaking) and be happy.

Miffed - take a look at the bottom line of my OP :P

Thanks for the calculation Robb as I cannot find these tables on bonuswhores which are supposed to give the exact figures (I think?).

My calculation started off the same way but went a bit off the rails.

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Originally Posted by Jibalob

Miffed - take a look at the bottom line of my OP :P

Thanks for the calculation Robb as I cannot find these tables on bonuswhores which are supposed to give the exact figures (I think?).

My calculation started off the same way but went a bit off the rails.

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