Real scary board for a set

Any suggestions for turn?

PokerStars Game #13036128457: Hold'em No Limit ($0.25/$0.50) - 2007/11/04 - 12:12:26 (ET)
Table 'Pleione IV' 6-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: red_dawn_28 ($48 in chips)
Seat 3: Jokers61 ($43.20 in chips)
Seat 4: Noble007 ($55.15 in chips)
Seat 5: j1ludwig ($28.20 in chips)
Seat 6: Pajas ($57 in chips)
Pajas: posts small blind $0.25
red_dawn_28: posts big blind $0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Noble007 [6c 6h]
Jokers61: raises $1 to $1.50
Noble007: calls $1.50
j1ludwig: folds
Pajas: folds
red_dawn_28: folds
*** FLOP *** [9s 6d 8d]
Jokers61: bets $5
Noble007: raises $10 to $15
Jokers61: calls $10
*** TURN *** [9s 6d 8d] [7c]
Jokers61: checks

I think this is much more likely a diamond draw, TP or a bare 7, i'd lead here and probably call a shove.

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Originally Posted by ChrisTheFish

I think this is much more likely a diamond draw, TP or a bare 7, i'd lead here and probably call a shove.

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I agree with this, I would be much more worried if a T fell or a 5 fell than the 7. He was probably open or FD on flop, and you're likely still ahead.

check behind the turn and if he checks the river bet. If the board pairs of course bet.

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Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

check behind the turn and if he checks the river bet. If the board pairs of course bet.

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Originally Posted by mixchange

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Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

check behind the turn and if he checks the river bet. If the board pairs of course bet.

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ok yes.. on second thought I dont mind this. Any OESD cards that he had would give the board a straight, so we're only probably risking the 9 flush cards.

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Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

check behind the turn and if he checks the river bet. If the board pairs of course bet.

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you wouldnt throw a blocking bet of about $20 out there, and check behind the river just to get it to showdown and charge the diamond for his draw?

it just seems when i check behind this turn, i get a big bet thrown at me on the river regardless of the card.

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Originally Posted by ChrisTheFish

I think this is much more likely a diamond draw, TP or a bare 7, i'd lead here and probably call a shove.

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I play lower stakes, but at NL10 this is my line. I think the flop rr is good. I'd bet 2/3 on the turn and call the shove. Even with a combo draw, he's not really got enough outs (9 flush + 4 gutshot) to call.

What was he raising and calling with that worries you? TT? AKs? AQs? With the action, he's got to know 2 pair is probably behind, so he knows he has to hit the draw. ATs? I just don't see his range really fitting this board very well. I think he got out ahead of his TP/AK hand and will fold to big bet on the turn.

I don't put him on a set of 9's or 8's either. I think he would c/r the flop if he did.

check raising a flop with a set is like the worst line

whats nice about what ISF and I advocate here is that by checking the turn here villain is much more likely to bluff river with a busted draw. If the FD misses and he bets river strong, I just call. And if he hits his flush and the board pairs, he will lead and you get alllll his monies

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Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

check behind the turn and if he checks the river bet. If the board pairs of course bet.

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alright giggidy gig.

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Originally Posted by mixchange

check raising a flop with a set is like the worst line

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Three questions. First, why is the c/r flop a terrible line? Villain has to be worried about the board texture, too, and might want to take down the pot if he can right here.

Second, I pointed out what I thought villain might do with a set. I see this play all the time from villains at my level.

Third, what's the rationale for giving him a free card here? You're risking a pretty big pot by letting him draw for free. Is the payoff on the end worth it?

important edit/clarification

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Originally Posted by Robb

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Originally Posted by mixchange

check raising a flop with a set is like the worst line

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Three questions. First, why is the c/r flop a terrible line? Villain has to be worried about the board texture, too, and might want to take down the pot if he can right here.

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Why not to C/r w/ set

-In general its a line that doesn't maximize value vs. medium strength hands due to screaming " i love my hand!"

Why to bet flop w/ set

- it makes villain define his hand and the streets easier to play
-on a drawish board many players take the free card here which can wreck your set...without having any idea of what villain might have
-you need to start building a pot, hopefully all going in on flop or turn


so we bet the flop with sets OOP or IP, half a pot at least (2/3 is great if villain is likely to have hit) depending on texture if you think villain's range hit (or if its drawish), more.

If villain re-raises, we can decide to either:
1) push if we think villain loves his hand or if we think scare cards could kill or action
2) call the raise and c/r AI on the turn (oop). The pot is now big enough villain is committed, where the flop C/R defines our hand too early and allows villain to get away

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Second, I pointed out what I thought villain might do with a set. I see this play all the time from villains at my level.

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Bad, answered above.

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Third, what's the rationale for giving him a free card here? You're risking a pretty big pot by letting him draw for free. Is the payoff on the end worth it?

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missed fd bluffs + paired board flushes > the pots we lose when flush hits
also, if for some reason he was drawing on flop with like A10s/a5 he wont put us on a boat when our 10 out boat/quads hit and will stack off

Thanks, I appreciate the explanation. I'm glad the villains are playing badly!! I seriously see this every night from villains playing NL10.

just wanted to point out I wasn't clear in my labelling on the last post... edited