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i ran some pstove calcs on overpairs to a small board.
say i have TT and board comes 9 high, even with 2 suits, if i put villain on any two broadways or pp's, is pstove correct that i have a massive advantage? that shocked me.
does this mean, w/o a specific read, or a lot of action pf, we should be trying to get any overpair AI on flops? if i am 65/35 favored, i want it AI.
now, if there's one overcard to our pair, against the same range, we suddenly drop to a 45/55 dog, according to pstove?
yes and no. is your opponent going to be willing to get it all in with two overs and no draw? if yes, then yes in an instant. over and over again. any opponent who will put his/her stack in with just an overcard draw is an opponent we want to play.
in practice, this will rarely be the case. if you do get a lot of action on a low flop you will probably be able to throw out a lot of the hands that you have a huge advantage over (JQs that did not even hit a backdoor flush draw comes to mind) and it will most likely be some sort of combo draw, set, overpair/slight underpair, or TP type of hand. there will still be some air in there thinking you have missed overs but not as often as if you include any 2 broadways in the pokerstove calcs.
if you limit your opp to AQo+, any 2 broadways with a flush draw, and all pairs, then your equity drops dramatically, though you are still ahead.
if you take out the lowest non-set pairs, you are pretty well even money, though slightly behind, and probably not getting called by the weaker pairs and AQo as much.
obv, i dont make money by open-shoving the flop...unless i'm short-stacking.
i was just shocked to see how much of a favorite i am on the flop. again, that obv changes as the hand wears on. i keep betting until i see a reason not to...like an overcard.
thanks for the clarity, though. and, i agree, as i'm sure you have run the numbers already.
Just skimmed the OP but just remember villain won't see further than the flop with most of that range in most cases.
You may be 65% vs. his range from preflop, but you are not 65% vs. his shoving/ calling ranges.Quote:
Originally Posted by Chopper
true, and i didnt mention this. but, my reasoning for figuring it in the first place was because of a shorty that got me.Quote:
Originally Posted by spoonitnow
i had JJ on T-high board. i thought he was on overs, so i pushed the flop because a normal bet commits him. and he hit his set on the flop, and crushed me with the insta-call. oh well.
i just wondered where i stood, in that situation, most times. and was frankly quite surprised.