Is this spew? (version 129409384 for me)

50NL, 6 handed 100bb eff.

Villain just sat down. Short history in a small number of hands, my PAhud has him at 31/20/4 over 60 hands. Seems aware, likes to steal and has folded to my 3bets preflop, except one time he 4bet over me kinda small. Post flop he has been pretty straightforward.

folded to steal happy villain who pops it up to $1.75

I flat it on the bb with :jh: :th:

flop :ks: :3s: :4s: (pot 3.75)
I check
Villain checks

turn :6d: (pot 3.75)
I check
Villain bets 3
I raise to 9
Villain calls

river :4d: (pot 21.75)
I bet 14


OK, thought process at the time, is his turn bet is stupid. He cbets any draw worthy hand here, top pair he also bets. Sets also have to bet flop as do any weak two pairs he could have been trying to steal with. The only hand I see him betting the turn with after the flop is checked through is mid pairs. I give it a healthy raise and when he calls I put him on a flush draw, but now that I think about it he cbets with his FDs as I said above. Can he call here with a mid pair? Maybe mid-pair with a FD draw. River pairs the board and I can't see any hand that helped him with that card except for K4s, or maybe 64s but I doubt it since I have been repopping his button raises. So I decide to bet because thats the only way I can take it down. What do you guys think?

Does he play a flopped flush this way to cause the kind of confusion you are experiencing now?
That's all I can think of.
What limit is this btw?

*edit* included stake of 50NL in post

spew against a decent player, but most people will fold their mid strength hand here

Quote:

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Originally Posted by thizzSantaCruz

PAhud has him at 31/20/4 over 60 hands. Seems aware... What do you guys think?

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I have just moved up to NL25. This is spew where I play because so many players seem to be stations. And a guy who's aware is probably going to have at least something to call with, even it's thin.

I don't know. As you point out, he'd c-bet almost anything here so why doesn't he? And then he bet/calls the turn? It looks loads like either a flush or a flush draw, though any kind of 77-JJ hand also makes sense. If he is calling your turn raise with a mid pair, he's probably calling your river bet as well since it's a complete rag. Ideally for you, he has something like 9s9x and is able to fold the river, but I dunno. This is probably fairly neutral EV, I reckon, and as you say it's your only hope of taking it down.

I don't really like this without one spade, the idea is pretty solid though.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

I don't really like this without one spade, the idea is pretty solid though.

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So ISF, do you advocate c/f turn, or maybe b/f if I feel like I can steal it? Another question, if I am in villains position this is a pretty good pot to c-bet with XX right?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

I don't really like this without one spade, the idea is pretty solid though.

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I agree. Your idea is solid but you don't have a lot of evidence to back it up. If you have a spade draw you don't need as much evidence, but without one you have to be pretty sure that the analysis you just said about his play is mostly correct.

It can work on occassion but this really isn't a winning play imo, you should raise him a bit bigger on the turn and give up on the river I think.