AKo, flop gutshot, turn TPTK + NFD, pot control? (2/4)

Villain is 43/12/4.5, high aggression frequencies on all streets. Early in the session, we haven't tangled. I'm probably running something like 20/18 pre, and have been cbetting and either picked up or shut down after the few flops I've seen.

Thoughts on all streets appreciated. Do we like a cbet? Bet turn? Raise river?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (5 handed) Party-Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Button ($669.85)
SB ($410.50)
BB ($953.10)
UTG ($400)
Hero ($413.50)

Preflop: Hero is MP with Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif.
1 fold, Hero raises to $14, 2 folds, BB calls $10.

Flop: ($30) Thttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $25, BB calls $25.

Turn: ($80) Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.

River: ($80) 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif (2 players)
BB bets $32, Hero calls $32.

Final Pot: $144

i would check flop like 90% vs this guy, getting checkraised on the flop would be a disaster.

i would bet turn, your hand has value against a donk and it isn't like it can't stand a raise.

I was going to say at 50NL where I play, I play it exactly the same. I'm not worried about a flop raise because villains just do not do that at this level. I don't bet turn because if I bet turn no worse hands will call a river bet. I would check through to get a free card and maybe make a nut hand. When villain bets the river we are forced to call.

I would check the flop also...,

As played, i'm torn between betting or checking the turn. I think both plays have merit, i kind of like checking the turn though.

I don't understand the point in betting the turn. I don't think you're good enough here to bet it for value. His preflop stats say he's a donk but he would have to be quite a station to call a turn bet with less than you have here. You just gained some showdown value so take the free card and hope to improve.

turn check advocators:

what do you think villain does with Qx with a d, Jx with a d, Tx with a d, pocket pair with a d, AQ, and all of his pair plus str8 draw combinations when we bet the turn here?

there are a bunch of pairs with draws you can value bet on the turn, so i guess bet.
it's unlikely this guy will raise enough to make you fold with that mega draw, and maybe unlikely he raises at all, but getting raised is def annoying if u don't know how often it's a semibluff.

I like checking the flop and betting the turn against this villain. They don't like to fold the flop a lot but c/raise too often. However, they normally don't get tricky after checking 2 streets.

P.S. As played I would not bet the turn here.

i think we are missing value by not betting turn.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by EzDuzIt

i think we are missing value by not betting turn.

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what hand do we get two streets of value from that we beat?

I'm so excited just thinking about how much checking the turn underreps our hand and increases our river value.

actually i didnt notice the villans high aggression, so i was assuming he would be more of a station and call lots of Q's and 10's. i guess betting turn is more marginal if hes not just calling down lots of hands.
on the river i think we atleast have to reraise this small bet as played. and fold if he comes over that.

this line seems ok to me

but i d prefer betting the turn since his range is very wide on the flop call and you have the best hand a huge % + he ll call the turn with worse quite a bit (stubborn JJ, QdJx, Qx)

sux if we get CR but with this hand we ll rarely be making a mistake by calling (since he's not CR flushes only according to your read) unless he shoves or something crazy

I think I may get called out on this one but oh well :

I like bet-3-bet AI on flop

or

call his CR and shove over his turn lead

You have to bet the turn for value against this opponent. Yes I think you will get two streets of value from weaker pairs and on the turn from draws.