400NL, 400$ effective stacks. I open raise to 14$, villain 3-bets to 50$, I shove with a hand that has 30% equity vs his calling range. How often does he have to fold for me to break even on the shove?
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400NL, 400$ effective stacks. I open raise to 14$, villain 3-bets to 50$, I shove with a hand that has 30% equity vs his calling range. How often does he have to fold for me to break even on the shove?
An anonymous source tells me that he has to fold 63% of the time. Someone confirm/deny and/or show me the math?
400 - 14 = 386 in your stack
50+14 = 64 in the pot.
I'm too dumb for the math, but here's the chart.
http://img510.imageshack.us/img510/6214/forexvz5.png
http://img510.imageshack.us/img510/6...2372854934.jpg
Looks like 63% is more or less correct, meaning he calls 37% of the time.
*Maths*
(Using euphs numbers) If you each have $400 then there is going to be $800 in the pot. You have 30% of the equity of that $800 so you expect to get back 0.30*800 = $240 from each shove. At the moment you have $386 in your stack so that would be a net loss of $146. Each time he folds you win $64.
The total probability of his actions must add up to 1 so if the probability of him calling is x, then the probability of him folding is 1-x.
The EV is then:
-146x (when he calls) + 64(1-x) (when he folds).
which is
-146x -64x + 64
-210x + 64
You break even when the EV is 0 so when
-210x + 64 = 0
or when 210x = 64
which means x = 64/210 = 0.30
You need him to call less than 30% of the time.
Hope this makes sense.
Euph. Looking at your chart the sign of the EV obviously changes between 30-35% so how did you get 37% ? :p
So does this mean the chart is wrong then? It says that the shove has an EV of 4.6$ when he calls 30% of the time, right?
lynch euph?
Pelion is right. I use a different formula and get .695
I'm a donkey and screwed up in a few places, but I think the chart is fine, halv. I think it depends on the rounding. Youre at 400nl, so 30% win and 30% call of $4 would be 1BB?Quote:
Originally Posted by Pelion
Not saying the chart IS right, I didn't make it. I'm way too dumb to make it.
EDIT: Halv, send me an AIM when you see this. I added the capability to do Pelion's exact math to the chart. I played around a bit and did indeed find disparity between the maths and the chart. I'll ask the maker about it when he's online but it could be a while.
Yuppo chart was off. Updated version:
http://img156.imageshack.us/img156/2093/forexhd1.png