50NL: Standard check/fold river against station?

Last night I got into an interesting hand:
(I don't have the hand history due to a server crash)

We are 3 handed (this was a FR at Ongame, but people start leaving as there were some server problems). Stacks are as follows:
UTG (Me running at 13/10/5): $50
BU (80/0/0.5 over 50 hands): $80
BB (can't remenber): $30
Note: there is no SB as it left the previous hand.

I raised to $2 with J:heart: J:diamond:.
BU calls.
BB calls.

flop is 5:spade: 3:diamond: 6:spade: (pot: $6)
BB checks.
I bet $4.5
BU calls.
BB folds.

turn is 8:heart: (pot: $15)
I bet $10 (I need to keep valuing bet this guy up to river as he is a station)
BU calls.

river is Q:spade: (pot: $35)
I bet $15 (as this guy was a calling station I wanted to have some value from hands like A6o/77/99/A8o ...)
I was planning on folding to a push (were he would be representing the flush).
BU min raises to $30

It's $15 to win a possible $80. What hands could villain min-raise with less then a pair of Q, flush, set, straight ...
However, we need to be good only 1 in about 7 times for this call to be profitable ...

Would the best play here be a check/fold on the river?

I would look this one up.

This villian is a huge station so you want to bet the river again and get called by fifth pair or whatever.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Fnord

I would look this one up.

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This guy being such a station do you think he min raises here often (if he is at least average he knows I don't have a flush)?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by wugwugy

This villian is a huge station so you want to bet the river again and get called by fifth pair or whatever.

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Do you mean you push push on top of his min raise?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Fnord

I would look this one up.

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i always tell myself this and it almost never works, especially against a river minbet. i dont see any hand you beat here, fold imo.

I was referring to your last line on if check/folding is best. It's not, like I said, but pushing over on river is super super super bad. He's a station, not a maniac. I probably look this one up like Fnord, but we're beat a tonnnnnnn here.

Actually, I folded and villain showed his cards, can anyone guess what he had? ;-)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by jimmy44

Actually, I folded and villain showed his cards, can anyone guess what he had? ;-)

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KQ

Quote:

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Originally Posted by jimmy44

Actually, I folded and villain showed his cards, can anyone guess what he had? ;-)

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He probably had A4 or some crap like that!?!

Not quite ;-)

Playing 80% of his hands makes it pretty hard to guess...but based solely on his river play I'd lean towards something like

AA, Axs flush, 78s flush, QQ, Q6o

Anywhere close?

Guess: QQ

Flush no doubt.

Maybe AA.

Actually, he showed:
4 :diamond: 4:heart:

ROTFL!!
I then said good hand!

My guess afterwards was that either he was a good player that played some levels above but was experimenting or he was a complete donkey and tried to min-raise bluff on the river.

Probably a minbet pro who knows how to pick his bluffs.