15k checkup / dispute settlement

The real reason for this post is to determine if i'm on a heater or not. Eupho says that I am, but I think he's a donkey, you decide who's right :)


15k hands of $25NL 6max.. MT ratio 2.55 (I run 1-4 tables usually 2-3 ).





General Tab - Euph says I win too many pots at WSF.. I don't think its enough.
http://img102.imageshack.us/img102/9750/generalfy4.jpg


We didnt' really get into this tab, its fairly standard other than I play horrible out of the BB :)
http://img508.imageshack.us/img508/6788/positionms5.jpg

Not even sure what to look for here in a 6max NL game.
http://img87.imageshack.us/img87/7086/moredetailym0.jpg

just in care anyone cares.
http://img87.imageshack.us/img87/8593/miscya9.jpg


PokerEV graphs.. I have No clue what these should look like.
http://img403.imageshack.us/img403/9072/tempcd1.png

PokerEV graphs.. I have No clue what these should look like.
http://img128.imageshack.us/img128/3645/tempaz5.png

clarification: " General Tab - Euph says I win too many pots at WSF.. I don't think its enough. "

I say you *ARE* winning more than you should be, not necessarily than the ideal. I'm not sure what the ideal should be but I think its around 40%.

You're running a litte hot.

W$@SD is kinda high and it looks like you're running hot out of your SB.

Doesn't look like a heater to me, pretty normal..

I didnt even get to see your position stats. You run awesome from the CO and HJ.

And lets not forget this gem:

mike4066: so i'm under the impression that over my next 10-20k hands i'll run about 9-10/100 @ 25nl 6max

So many factors feed into some of these numbers, it's really hard to tell. For starters, you play tighter than me.

In a slightly more useful conversation, what SHOULD those PokerEV cumulative bar graphs look like?

My last 10k (11k to be precise) look WAY different, particularly my river...

http://img511.imageshack.us/img511/7808/forexji0.png

The last graph makes it look like you're running slightly below expectation, but I don't know that much about PokerEV graphs.

I don't understand the W$WSF argument... your is 37.66 and euph says 40 is good, so you're winning fewer hands when seeing a flop than you should be (according to euph). Personally, I think you should shoot for over 40, but it depends on your game. If everyone's a station then it's going to be lower b/c you can just pick your spots and take them to v-town.

Yea zook, that wording didnt make sense. I dont think I explained it to mike well either. My idea was that Mike's play is probably not as 37% winner, that he's running hot to get it that high. That might be fallacious, I'm not sure. Whatever, I'll eat crow on that.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by euphoricism

And lets not forget this gem:

mike4066: so i'm under the impression that over my next 10-20k hands i'll run about 9-10/100 @ 25nl 6max

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I will backpetal a bit on this one and say I doubt I will play another 20k hands at this limit so I don't think I can prove this fully.


But I still think 9-10 is doable for a 10-20k stretch here.

I think his last graph says he's hitting a lot of draws, or that his opponents are not hitting many against him, or a combination of the two.

Most peoples green total line is WELL below showdown (as is to be expected, because we don't make anywhere NEAR as much money in non-showdown hands as we do in showdown hands)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by zook

I don't understand the W$WSF argument... your is 37.66 and euph says 40 is good, so you're winning fewer hands when seeing a flop than you should be (according to euph). Personally, I think you should shoot for over 40, but it depends on your game. If everyone's a station then it's going to be lower b/c you can just pick your spots and take them to v-town.

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/nod

One of many reasons you just can't look at many of these numbers and expect a right value. This isn't fucking limit poker.

Fucking pay attention and exploit, exploit, exploit. Kick sand on the weaklings. Value-town the stations. Fold AK when the 12 tabler opens UTG. Play good spots, avoid bad ones and figure out what you do well.

For what it's worth, stuff I notice happens when I'm on a heater:
o W$@SD runs a little high
o One or both my blinds will show a profit
o Run of good cards. Higher rate of AA, KK, QQ. Big cards can't miss (more of a limit thing.) Run of pairs hitting sets.

My rough, wild ass guess is that if you have a 5k-10k run where everything clicks and feels good, you're probably running double your long-term rate.

I think if I can address the problem of losing 3bb/100 with 1p type hands I can add pretty nice to my winrate tot he tune of 2+/100

I have a problem folding overpairs, like JJ on a 984 board so my 1p / 2p stats suffer. I end up playing large pots wit them

Is 2+/100 far fetched?

Mike,
I don't think that's even close to the biggest problem with your game. You're doing fine in big pots.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Fnord

Mike,
I don't think that's even close to the biggest problem with your game. You're doing fine in big pots.

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You and your teaser statements.

enlighten me?

these numbers dont show how good you play, thats the problem with pt

don't
overrate
your
winrate

Probably a small heater.

I like your 2nd PokerEV graph, I've been working on reducing the amount of money lost in hands that don't go to showdown myself lately.

That graph makes it look like you run almost excactly at expectation, but the only reliable PokerEV measure of how you're running is the "Luck graph" (and it doesn't account for coolers, bad run of starting hands, etc).

at 25NL i think this is sustainable.

My win-rate at 200NL is comperable.

I think you have a winning style for 25Nl and with decent pot control I'm sure you can maintain around 5.
Although it does look like you're on a bit of a heater.
My 50Nl stats are at about 14k hands for this week (running at 2bb/100) and the differences I see between the two -
- You're losing money on your one pair hands whereas I am not
- You have 33% more straights & flushes than me
- You have double the amount of full houses

So perhaps you are hitting some hands, (thats only in comparison to my stats though.)

i would guess you are on a heater but maybe not.

10ptbb+ is sustainable at 25nl i would think. but i dont think 19/11/2.5 is going to get you a huge winrate.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Fnord

My win-rate at 200NL is comperable.

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You are much better than anyone at 200nl.

aaand the overwhelming majority say...

Euphos right! :D

:dance:

Now, some of you ballas, what do your PokerEV cumulative graphs look like?

http://i237.photobucket.com/albums/f...cumulative.jpg

LOL you listen to Euph about NL? Seriously?

You're not running hot and you're not aggro enough. Your W$@SD is high cuz I feel your WTSD is low which in turn makes you W$WSF low as well. Therefore, you're either folding too much or not being aggro enough with your draws. All in all nice win rate though!