Completely Unconnected Questions

1) "Don’t go broke in an unraised pot."
Why do people say this? A speculative hand can turn hot and if you flop the nuts........


2) "Your cards will only hit about 1/3 of the time."
Does this, and other comment like the chances of hitting a flush, refer to just the flop; or the entire 5 community cards?


3) If we acccept the rule of 4 and 2, does that mean each card equates to a multiple of 2? Ie: the flop = a multiple of 6 and the entire 5 cards being a multiple of 10?


4) If you land a FH on a paired board but the pair that makes your set is weaker than the other pair (thus opening the door to a higher full house) do you push regardless or play with caution?

Eg: you hold 10A and the board shows 7 10 10 K K
Or you hold 78 and the board shows 782Q8.

Or any such combo where your top set caneb outgunned.


5) How do you record your screenshot and audio, like in the instructional videos? It's not from an external camera, that's for sure.


6) Can someone with a good basic knowledge, read HOH etc, make money at online poker, especially sub $20 SNGs? Despite all this, and despite ITM of about 50% on any given day, I'm stuck and going round and round at the $80 mark, from a $20 start, playing $2 events.

I hit this figure very guickly. 100 games later and I am just going round and round. 80 - 60 - 75 - 60 - 79 - 72 - 79 - 50 - 83 - 75 - 84 - 72 - 67 - 80 etc.

Eg (buy ins rounded off) : Yesterday, started with $78. Crashed out of 2 on bubble. Down to $73.
Bought into another, so down to $71. Came 2nd and back to $77. Crashed out of next so bought into another ($72) won it and up to $82.

When I strayed from my usual ITM results of 50%, a lot were bad beats. Some were days when I just couldn't land a card, or was constantly outgunned, even with aces. Very rarely did I get it in with the worst hand. Eventually, a fair bit was donked off on tilt.

And to make it worse, a lot of my peers at this level are asking me for advice?!?!?!

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Originally Posted by Thunder

1) "Don’t go broke in an unraised pot."
Why do people say this? A speculative hand can turn hot and if you flop the nuts........

If you flop the nuts you are unlikely to go broke. It doesnt even mean this though. It just means the more you have behind, and the more people saw a flop, the stronger a hand you will need to stick it all in

2) "Your cards will only hit about 1/3 of the time."
Does this, and other comment like the chances of hitting a flush, refer to just the flop; or the entire 5 community cards?

2 unpaired hole cards will make at least a pair on the flop about 1/3 of the time


3) If we acccept the rule of 4 and 2, does that mean each card equates to a multiple of 2? Ie: the flop = a multiple of 6 and the entire 5 cards being a multiple of 10?

close enough. There is roughly a 2% chance that a given card will hit with one card to come. So roughly 4% with 2 cards to come. Its only an estimate though so it gets less accurate the more cards you deal.

4) If you land a FH on a paired board but the pair that makes your set is weaker than the other pair (thus opening the door to a higher full house) do you push regardless or play with caution?

Eg: you hold 10A and the board shows 7 10 10 K K

Your hand is crap

5) How do you record your screenshot and audio, like in the instructional videos? It's not from an external camera, that's for sure.

you need a special program to "screencapture". Camtasia will do it. There is also another free one that I cant remember the name of.

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Originally Posted by Pelion

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Originally Posted by Thunder

1) "Don’t go broke in an unraised pot."
Why do people say this? A speculative hand can turn hot and if you flop the nuts........

If you flop the nuts you are unlikely to go broke. It doesnt even mean this though. It just means the more you have behind, and the more people saw a flop, the stronger a hand you will need to stick it all in

2) "Your cards will only hit about 1/3 of the time."
Does this, and other comment like the chances of hitting a flush, refer to just the flop; or the entire 5 community cards?

2 unpaired hole cards will make at least a pair on the flop about 1/3 of the time


3) If we acccept the rule of 4 and 2, does that mean each card equates to a multiple of 2? Ie: the flop = a multiple of 6 and the entire 5 cards being a multiple of 10?

close enough. There is roughly a 2% chance that a given card will hit with one card to come. So roughly 4% with 2 cards to come. Its only an estimate though so it gets less accurate the more cards you deal.

4) If you land a FH on a paired board but the pair that makes your set is weaker than the other pair (thus opening the door to a higher full house) do you push regardless or play with caution?

Eg: you hold 10A and the board shows 7 10 10 K K

Your hand is crap

5) How do you record your screenshot and audio, like in the instructional videos? It's not from an external camera, that's for sure.

you need a special program to "screencapture". Camtasia will do it. There is also another free one that I cant remember the name of.

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6) most likely variance, dude.

they said in the TT KK example, "your hand is crap." i will add, "your hand is crap...to any kind of aggression." you may still be best, but i'm not putting in much more money to find out.

This variance...........always around the £80 mark. I played 10 on Saturday and won 5 of them. And still.....

At the $80 mark, I go on a massive downswing where the villains one outer hits, repeatedly. Then I return to 50% ITM to get back on track only for it to repeat. Grrrr!

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Originally Posted by Thunder

Or you hold 78 and the board shows 782Q8.

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Is this hand crap? Because really QQ is all that beats you here.

But ya, the other one is crap.

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Originally Posted by shazbox

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Originally Posted by Thunder

Or you hold 78 and the board shows 782Q8.

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Is this hand crap? Because really QQ is all that beats you here.

But ya, the other one is crap.

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no, yours isnt total crap. but, in a raised pot, its worth thinking about.

thunder, yes, variance, imo. the swings in SNG's and MTT's is incredible. ask Taipan, i'm sure he can tell you better than i can.

My 2c

1. If you flop the nuts or close to it you can put all yur money in, the idea is not to put too much value into hands like TPTK in such cases where limpers/blinds can have pretty much anything and hit the flop in multiple ways.

Example: you hold AK raised from MP1 and got a call from Button, all else folded, flop is A62 rainbow.
You can be pretty sure you got the best hand, if you bet the flop and get called putting all your money in the pot is not bad.
Same hand but you limp from MP, button calls, SB completes, BB checks, same flop, you bet, SB and BB call, you have no idea where you stand.

4. The two cases you gave are totally different, in the first case anyone who has a K beats you, in the other case they need specifc 2 card combos (QQ/Q8), so I would go broke with the 2nd one but not the 1st

6. What is your sample size ?

That last FH was a typo. I meant you hold 79 and the board comes 788Q7 where any random 8 has ya.

no fair you changed the question after i answered :p.

you hold 78 and the board shows 782Q8. - pretty much the nuts.

you hold 79 and the board comes 788Q7 - pretty much arse.

amen, pel

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Originally Posted by Thunder

Eg: you hold 10A and the board shows 7 10 10 K K
Or you hold 78 and the board shows 782Q8.

Or any such combo where your top set caneb outgunned.

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You don't have a set in either of these hands. A set is where you have a pocket pair and hit the board. Otherwise it's called trips. To answer your question just think about what hands beat yours and think of how likely it is for your opponent to have that hand. In your first example, any king beats you. In your second example you're only beat by Q8 and QQ. The difference is huge.

teh point I am trying to make is that the board is paired, you have a full house, but you have the arse end ie:


447710 - you hold 34

1010JJ5 - you hold 10Q

8866 - you hold A6

Works the same way for straights.
89 is crap on a T J Q K board

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Originally Posted by Thunder

teh point I am trying to make is that the board is paired, you have a full house, but you have the arse end ie:


447710 - you hold 34

1010JJ5 - you hold 10Q

8866 - you hold A6

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board is double-paired in all those cases

In those situations there is no 'text book' answer, it depends on the action, the way the cards fell etc...

For example in the TTJJ5 example.
If you raised preflop, the flop was TT5, you bet 2/3 pot and got called, it is a pretty good guess villian does not have a J, however if the flop was JT5, villian raised and you called the flop, it is very likely he has a J

In any poker hand that isn't the nuts, the most important thing is not the absolute strength of the hand, but the relative strength compared to what other hands people might have.

In the full house hands you mention, in absolute terms you have a full house. Woohoo! But if you bet with your underboat, and get raised, then there is a very strong likelihood that you are beat, firstly because there is a very obvious and likely hand that beats you (Kx in your first example) and secondly because the board is so obviously dangerous that a worse hand - say AA - wouldn't risk a raise here.

One reason we beat donks is because they only see the strength of their own hand. A2 on a AA6J3 flop against a raise? All in because OMG THREE ACES, despite the fact that ANY other ace beats you, as does any set. Indeed A2 is the WORST hand you could have here against any strength because worse hands will get the hell out. I would find trip aces with A2 here pretty much as easy to fold as Ace high on an unpaired board, but donks don't, and your example is effectively looking at the same concept.

"Don't go broke in an unraised pot" - just rabbiting what previous people have said really. A hand like TPTK plays well vs one or maybe two villains, especially in a raised pot where underpairs, draws and weaker kickers may abound. In an unraised pot, there are likely to be several limpers, including the blinds who could literally have anything. So it becomes impossible to put the villains on hands, but you still need to bet to protect your own, and the next thing you know is you're calling a turn raise, the villain leads the river, the pot is bloated and you've still only got TPGK, and you get near-stacked by the big blind who holds J4 and pwns you with a two pair hand he'd never have had the chance to make in a raised pot.

Conversely, of course, there will be times when you have the crappy BB hand and flop the nuts, and as you say these will make you good money. Problem is they're massively rare compared to the example above.

(oops, in my trip aces hand above, you split with A4 and A5, but only donks will play those hands anyway :))

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One reason we beat donks is because they only see the strength of their own hand. I would find trip aces with A2 here pretty much as easy to fold as Ace high on an unpaired board, but donks don't, and your example is effectively looking at the same concept.

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And this is the confusing element. I lost 2 big cash pots holding an underdog full house, on fairly innocuous boards too - no broadways. Then I folded 2 full houses that would have cleaned out my opponents because, as you said, they only saw what theyhad - which was two pair - and not the risk of a full house. They insta raised all in and I instafolded both times, sure they'd hit their K and A full houses. They didn't. And I felt like crying, lol



And as for your going broke comments, then it is worthwhile betting out to scare off Mr J4.

Pre-flop or on the flop? Certainly pre-flop, most of the time, but if you have KJ and he has J4 and the flop is J94 you're going to be in a lot of trouble unless you can either fold tpgk or control the size of the pot successfully (which is hard to do when you also have to protect what you've got).

The further complication, of course, is that T8 also sees this flop and sees a bet and a call and is priced in to chase his OESD, and if that hits, then you and J4 are both pwned but may still find yourself in a bloated pot where it's hard to fold and bang, there goes a stack.

In the examples you give where you bet/folded an underboat - well done, you played it right. Their play was pretty much insane.

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Originally Posted by Thunder

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One reason we beat donks is because they only see the strength of their own hand. I would find trip aces with A2 here pretty much as easy to fold as Ace high on an unpaired board, but donks don't, and your example is effectively looking at the same concept.

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And this is the confusing element. I lost 2 big cash pots holding an underdog full house, on fairly innocuous boards too - no broadways. Then I folded 2 full houses that would have cleaned out my opponents because, as you said, they only saw what theyhad - which was two pair - and not the risk of a full house. They insta raised all in and I instafolded both times, sure they'd hit their K and A full houses. They didn't. And I felt like crying, lol



And as for your going broke comments, then it is worthwhile betting out to scare off Mr J4.

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As I said in earlier posts, on a double paired board with the underboat a lot depends on the action in early streets, post some HH of those hands for review