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100NL, 100bb stax.
Bad/loose guy limps UTG, I limp along with A:diamond:2:diamond:, folds to 16/12/2 ABC nit/tag BB who checks it.
Flop ($3.40): K:heart:J:club:7:club:
checks around
Turn($3.40): A:heart:
BB leads for $2.70, bad guy folds, I call.
River($8): 7:diamond:
BB leads for $5, could I raise here?
good thinking
Really? what worse hands call a river raise?
We are beating absolutely nothing in this guy's range.Quote:
Originally Posted by meeloche
Raising is awesome here.
Make it big
don't look now, but we're bluffing.....Quote:
Originally Posted by meeloche
only thing he'll fold here that we don't have beat already is a better 2pair right? Or are we trying to chase him out of a split pot?
don't really like the bluff against a BB that just checked preflop...
oh lol only now read thread title... hmm... I agree raise would have to be big to push him off. I wouldn't do it but it would probably work here
then you should if you think it could work ;)
what do we consider big here? Also, against a 1st level thinker we want to make this bigger then against a 2nd/3rd level? Do we maybe want to make it look like we want a call/v-bet against any of those?
I think I like the idea of this, but really the only way it would work is to raise to $30-40ish on the river. So we're risking $30-40ish for a $13 pot so it has to work a LOT to be profitable. Not to mention the fact that when we're called we're only winning half the pot often.. or he has us beat.
I think I'd like this better in a bigger pot that was worth bluffing at.
Don't call bets when you're splitting at best right?
Just calling is not that bad when you consider the fact that a river raise looks like a bluff. You can't really legitimately represent strength when all you've done is call until the river, then a card comes that should only serve to give both players the same hand, and then you make a raise that represents nothing. Most thinking opponents (and almost all unthinking ones) will call you here with an ace. It's an ok play since you're usually freerolling, but don't expect it to work very often, and realize he will sometimes show up with a better hand.
You're also for the most part splitting at worst. Granted, if you virtually can't lose, it may seem silly to say that calling may be better than attempting an almost risk-free bluff, but it isn't if you realize he may never fold in a split pot.Quote:
Originally Posted by Irisheyes
sax, I men't that's the type of thing he will be thinking if I raise to like $22 here. And I don't think an ABC tag like this guy will think about what I'm representing, he'll just think "oh shit he raised, must be a bluff or a 7". He wont actually go through the thought process which concludes that I never have a 7 here.
haha.. well this was exactly what I was thinking when I said NOT to do this.. that your line makes no sense =) You can't possibly have a 7.. unless you had A7/K7 or something, but those hands would have all raised the turn. Straight would hav raised the turn... pretty much ALL hands would have raised the turn, so really if he DOES think about this then its probably bad.Quote:
Originally Posted by Irisheyes
But if your read is that he won't be thinking deeply about what you can have.. then that makes this a lot different.
Another problem here is that if he's thinking he KNOWS your hand here, but I think he can still have a wide range here including two pair or a 7 even.