Different overpair line

Villain was pretty nitty 21/4/1.9 over 600 hands, on a few of my tables. Never saw him do anything at all really. I figured he wouldn't call 3 streets with much so I checked it back on the turn then I tried to make my hand look like a mad bluff on the river. What you think FTR?

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($219.95)
UTG+1 ($192.85)
CO ($252.58)
Hero ($316.80)
SB ($310.05)
BB ($79.80)

Pre-flop: ($3, 6 players) Hero is BTN :kd: :kh:
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $2, 1 fold, Hero raises to $9, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls $7

Flop: :3s: :3c: :th: ($21, 2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $14, UTG+1 calls $14

Turn: :4h: ($49, 2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks

River: :5c: ($49, 2 players)
UTG+1 bets $45, Hero raises to $293.8, $125 to call

I normally just call on the river, but this looks really good. I like it.

ew call the river as played.

but this is easy just bet bet bet

if you're afraid he folds the turn too much then just double barrel you air here.

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Originally Posted by Massimo

ew call the river as played.

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can you explain why you call river as played? i think he stacks with 10 here and i really doubt he has a set or a 3.

how does villain have Tx will, and how does he stack off with it?

nh, if he has 44-55 then gg but i think doing this a certain % of the time is great, ur hands looks alot like air.

only problem is his river bet sizing, id feel more confident if he bet a little less, but i still like it.

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Originally Posted by will641

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Originally Posted by Massimo

ew call the river as played.

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can you explain why you call river as played? i think he stacks with 10 here and i really doubt he has a set or a 3.

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Well he said he was pretty nitty so i think he'll probably look more for an excuse to fold then to call. + i don't see why you doubt he has a set or a 3, that's what it looks like to me.

In fact i'll bet you 1:1 on like 30 bucks that he had a set or a 3 (if you want to accept this bet you have to before results are shown, obviously if villain folded you win). You should still call the river though cause of pot odds.

the only 3 i could see villain limping is A3. spenda, you dont think after that line he never calls a shove (especially if he is bad) with like 10 J-A? i understand why you say "how could he have a 10" because of his c/c on flop and check on turn. i guess it really depends on how weak/tight he is. And i dont know about you but i get called all the time by hands like that in these kind of situations. sometimes even with under pairs (99-66).

max - bet accepted for $30. unless anyone has any objection could irish give the results?

i like it!! why arent we considering opp is floating us OOP?? i think opp could look us up with alot of hands we beat bcoz our line is abit strange plus its really not that much opp has to call when we shove

yeah theres no way this gets called by enough worse hands to be good. river could easily help hero, 67, 44, 55, A2, weird TT or 33, and thats a whole shitload for him to call, so his legit raising range here is somewhat wide. i dont think hero's line looks bluffy at all, tons of people do this when the river a concealed monster. but i suppose if hero's range here so far has been polarized to only nuts and bluffs here then he might call, but a nit should be leaning towards folding in that situation. and i do think vill can def have a ten here which he calls with almost never, and he can also have a 3, and the only 3's that are in his range are 34 which is a boat, 33 quads, a3 nut trips, all of which he is snap calling. so just call.

Looking at this now I don't think this was so hot. I think his river bet size gives us a ton of info about the strength of his hand. I think for most first level thinkers this bet means "shit I have a monster and I need to get value". So for that reason the river is just a call.

Massimo, I disagree that this is an easy bet, bet, bet though. I think we're only getting 2 streets of value from a ten and only one from an underpair if we bet the turn. We can extract more value from the underpair part of his range with a bet, check, bet line while still getting 2 streets from his tens. We also get more information based on what he does on the turn (which I chose to ignore here) and he has like 5 outs max.

Oh and he stacked me with 55 btw.

I dont mind realy the turn check. If he bets small on the river I would make a small value raise. If he check I would bet around 36$.

But as Alexos said, a 45$ raise from a passive player dont look good at all so I would just call here.

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Originally Posted by will641

the only 3 i could see villain limping is A3. spenda, you dont think after that line he never calls a shove (especially if he is bad) with like 10 J-A? i understand why you say "how could he have a 10" because of his c/c on flop and check on turn.

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i was referring more to PF, if he has a ten it's like 9T/JT and those hands probably have trouble calling the river.

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Originally Posted by Irisheyes

Massimo, I disagree that this is an easy bet, bet, bet though. I think we're only getting 2 streets of value from a ten and only one from an underpair if we bet the turn. We can extract more value from the underpair part of his range with a bet, check, bet line while still getting 2 streets from his tens.

Oh and he stacked me with 55 btw.

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Obviously I am late to the party, but I agree with the above.

My only contribution would be that the big river bet really polarizes a nitty player range. Nuts or air. I would be a huge fan of the river call b/c he's not calling a raise with hardly anything you beat. But he has bet some weak hands here.

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Originally Posted by bigspenda73

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Originally Posted by will641

the only 3 i could see villain limping is A3. spenda, you dont think after that line he never calls a shove (especially if he is bad) with like 10 J-A? i understand why you say "how could he have a 10" because of his c/c on flop and check on turn.

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i was referring more to PF, if he has a ten it's like 9T/JT and those hands probably have trouble calling the river.

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but hes a 21/4!! i mean A 10 is a bit of a stretch (still very possible though), but i def. dont think K 10 and Q 10 aren't.

lol @ justifying slowrolling an overpair. raise pre, bet flop, bet turn, move to bad beat forum if villain's still with us at the river.

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Originally Posted by Irisheyes

Oh and he stacked me with 55 btw.

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Originally Posted by will641

max - bet accepted for $30. unless anyone has any objection could irish give the results?

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pwned. ship the 30

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Originally Posted by Irisheyes

Massimo, I disagree that this is an easy bet, bet, bet though. I think we're only getting 2 streets of value from a ten and only one from an underpair if we bet the turn. We can extract more value from the underpair part of his range with a bet, check, bet line while still getting 2 streets from his tens. We also get more information based on what he does on the turn (which I chose to ignore here) and he has like 5 outs max.

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Oh come on, people are such stations. I would find it hard to believe that this guy isn't stacking off with a T here (especially AT or KT) or calling two, maybe even 3, streets with an underpair (i'm hoping you're playing aggro enough for him to feel like "taking a stand"). I don't think many players would disagree.

Hell he could even have QQ or JJ and he's definitely stacking with those

ask why you check the turn -- to let villain catch up. The 5 usually didn't do anything for his hand, so there isn't much point in raising here

but usually you can get better value than a turn check by just bet bet bet, and you protect your hand.

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Originally Posted by mixchange

ask why you check the turn -- to let villain catch up. The 5 usually didn't do anything for his hand, so there isn't much point in raising here

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This doesn't make any sense to me.

Imagine you are the villain in this hand with JT or 99. If you check called my bet of $42 on the turn everyone would tell you it was a spew.

i check turn here a lot against these types with an overpair and all the 20/10's out there cos they like to call this flop when their pocket pair looks good, and then fold turn if i bet again, so i bet my air almost always here too, they don't pick up on it because they don't call and they don't learn anyway. even with JTs or somethin they take time and fold fearing the worst. like op says, there isn't 3 streets of value here often against this guy, and he rarely calls turn without a good hand, so you get an extra bet on the river often.

i hate the raise though, would it not be better against a more aggressive type?

I'd probs just call or min raise here. But it does look like a bluff bet and if he's a good player he would intend to make it look like a bluff so I would lean towards a call, if you raise big you're only getting called if you're beaten.