Double Barreling paired flops

So one of the ways which I suck at poker is that my W$WSF is too low and my W$SD is too high. So in an effort to fight that I want to talk about double barreling. Firstly I want to consider the possibility that doubling paired boards might be a good idea.

For example, lets say a loose passiveish (30/10/1.9) player limps in EP at 200NL, we raise to $11 isolate him from the button with Q:diamond:J:diamond:. Folds around and he calls.

Flop ($23): 8:club:8:spade:3:heart:
he checks, we bet $16, he calls.

Now obviously continuation betting is pretty standard here, his range is wide and weak and it misses this flop a ton. We get a lot of folds. Flop is fine.

Turn ($54): 6:heart:
He checks, can we bet here?

Well I did a rough EV calc for this giving him a pretty wide turn range of pairs JJ-22, lots of hands with an 8 ie. 78s, 89s. T8s, J8s, K8s, 86s, A8s and A8o, A3 and AT. I assume he will raise preflop with QQ+ always, and fold Q8s. The AT is there to represent the times that we get calls from unpaired overcards, I think this happens reasonably frequently, you might disagree?

Anyway, it turns out that a range like this is basically the break even point for betting this turn. If his range was any weaker (which I think it will be) it's a good bet.

So I went on to consider things which would make this play more +EV.

1) The value of the paired cards
A flop like KK3 is better then 553 because there are more weak underpairs (like 99) in the villains range which he might fold to a turn bet. He will fold a low overpair much less than a low underpair.

2) The value of the unpaired card
I think KK8 is a better flop than KK3 because there are more likely weak hands like 89s, 98s, 8Ts etc in the villains range than hands like 23s, 34s. This means more hands that will call a flop bet and fold to subsequent aggression.

3) Villains preflop position.
Basically this is a ranges thing. His range has to be wide and weak, so it's pretty much limp/calling or calling from the blinds ranges only. I think semi-decent TAG's ranges for calling raises from the blinds are predominantly pocket pairs and we can use this to our advantage. People who limp/call just have wide ranges anyway.

4) Draws on the flop
I cant decide if this is beneficial to us or not. Any ideas on how often people c/c the flop and c/f the turn with straight and flush draws? It could make firing a small bet on rivers where a lot of draws missed would be a good idea.

5) Turn card
A/K > 2 ldo

6) Our image
Obviously TAG/nit is better than super crazy nutjob.


Tell me your thinkings FTR?

I think this is very often good. Of course you have to consider the villain; will he float/call c-bets light or does a fold a lot, does he have calling station tendencies?

Also, for villain I think the turn card matters quite a bit.
And having AK is of course than 23 for the times you hit.

Position matters as well. I will double barrel someone c/c-ing flop and checking turn again way lighter than when I'm OOP and get called on the flop.

Yeah i love to fire twice in this spot, Most pairs call and figure you'll shut down with A high, but won't call a 2nd shot without a real hand. Careful your not doing it vs a station or someone who loves to slow play.

Don't be too worried about those stats if you're making money. If you're not playing on FT or Stars yor stats might be optimal. I play on a fishier site and I've found I make way more money focussing on my W$@SD. W$WSF became so popular because a lot of the americans are playing on taggier sites and that stat becomes a little more relevant.

reads are the main factor for me to double barrel. a loose passive with a low WTSD or just generally only a station on the flop but not turn/river is ideal.

but my experience with thinking players is they expect a tag/lag to check a marginal hand on the turn, so they'll make light call downs, like AQ+.
so vs them i value bet light more then two barrel bluff and make notes and whatnot (occasionally i value stack myself which sux..). if i do two barrel bluff i'll keep firing if they call.