am i ever winning here?

villain is unknown, i tend to default that he isnt very good. the only hand i can put him on this line with is AQ, because he is probably scared on flop and turn that i have KK/AA, so he calls flop and check behinds turn, an when he fills up, he throws in a half pot bet. i wanted to call this, but i think one of my biggest leaks is looking people up light in situations like this, and in general 3 bet pots where i dont have the nuts i feel like i suck at.

Edit: i forgot to mention that he could def. be bluffing AK, but i feel like if hes bluffing he is probably going to bet around $45.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (5 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

BB ($104.25)
UTG ($101.15)
MP ($98)
Button ($67.70)
Hero ($103.45)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif.
UTG raises to $4, 2 folds, Hero raises to $14, 1 fold, UTG calls $10.

Flop: ($29) Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, 3http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, 3http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $20, UTG calls $20.

Turn: ($69) 4http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks.

River: ($69) Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $30, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $69

def fold river
In threebet pots, especially after someone raises UTG, your opps range is very tight. When someone calls a threebet oop there most likely hand is AQ/KQ as well.

I probably check the flop too.

Your pot odds are pretty good here, you're gettin better than 3:1 even, so you only have to be ahead like less than 25% of the time.

If there's any chance he is value betting any pair 44-TT, or even A high to get you off a chop I think based on pot odds this should be a call.

Don't know what he has exactly, but I agree with you: his range is beating you. He could have AQ, KQ, overpairs, maybe AdKd. I don't think the villain "fears" anything on the turn, really.

just throwing this out there, how about a block bet?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by griffey24

Your pot odds are pretty good here, you're gettin better than 3:1 even, so you only have to be ahead like less than 25% of the time.

If there's any chance he is value betting any pair 44-TT, or even A high to get you off a chop I think based on pot odds this should be a call.

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sorry.. didn't notice this was a 3-bet pot.

ok I think that weighs it more towards a fold... and yah i prob c/c flop given that you're wa/wb.

Fold is prob best.. but his bet is so damn small.. I just can't fold to such small bets.. though that doesn't mean you shouldn't :)

Anyone like $55 on river? It looks like we have AK IMO

Not enough value to fire a small bet, i'd def just c/f.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

Not enough value to fire a small bet, i'd def just c/f.

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Would you agree with me that there's more value (and a much higher expectation) in betting 61 than 34?

(Though I'm still undecided on whether betting is the best option atm)

you might want to consider calling preflop against an UTG, unknown full stack.