My last 32k hands made me a losing player

These are the stats of my last 4 months. A few days back after having another bad session, I merged all the PT databases I have. The results were quite astonishing to me; overall I am a losing player according in my database. Because my first few months of playing and some small sites are not in there, I am more or less a break even player online.

4 months before I was a winning 25NL and 50NL player for about 10 months, and taking some shots at 100NL. After quiting the shots I started loosing at 50NL and dropped down to 25NL to build on my confidende and to test myself to get a decent winrate. (I have posted about that before.)

To say I hit a downswing seems an understatement. I lost a shocking 8,5 BI at 50NL and 11BI's at 25NL over 32k hands. (for example my KK's have seen AA's 11 times, my AA's have seen KK's 2 times). I downloaded PokerEV and the graphs show I have had a downswing as well...I don't understand the graphs very well though and they are only from about 18k PP hands.

But I don't think I can assign it all to the downswing, or at least wonder if I can. It's not like these stakes are almost unbeatable so even with some bad card runs it should be able to be beaten.
My confidence has dropped a lot the last months and so has my enjoyment. I feel like I have to get a total different approach to the game, but tbh I just don't know.

I don't know whether to keep playing my game at these stakes, drop down to 5NL or something and play a totally different game, move up to hit an upswing and get paid, or something else. Due to effective bonuswhoring in the past my bankroll is still solid for 50NL, but it isn't inexhaustible and my enjoyment isn't either.

I am mostly looking for advice on my stats/playing style and how big my downswing really is compared to my losses.

Stats from last 4 months, 32k hands:
http://img264.imageshack.us/img264/4...vjankm9.th.jpg
http://img148.imageshack.us/img148/4...vjanky1.th.jpg
http://img137.imageshack.us/img137/5...vjanmc6.th.jpg
http://img137.imageshack.us/img137/7...vjanis1.th.jpg
http://img137.imageshack.us/img137/9...nnovhp9.th.jpg

PokerEV graphs of last 18k hands on PP:
http://img137.imageshack.us/img137/6...vjanoi1.th.jpg
http://img137.imageshack.us/img137/6...vjanmq3.th.jpg

And my stats from before the last 4 months (yes I was playing way less back then)
http://img137.imageshack.us/img137/8...onovak3.th.jpg

i havent checked but im pretty sure im down after about 30k hands, and probably up a very small margin over 50k hands.

Hey man,

Well I think its clear from the Pokerev graphs and from your KK results that you are running bad for sure.

Though, as you say, this may not be the entire story.

I don't think you're being aggressive enough. Your preflop stats look solid, but you're pretty passive postflop. Your cont bet % is pretty low (44%), especially given that you're only raising 14% of hands PF. As a result, your won when saw flop is also low.

I'd imagine you can stand to up the aggression a few notches. Pick some good spots to fire 2 barrels, like on scary turn cards etc.

Running bad a lot of the time is exaggerated by bad play. I just did an 11 buying downswing a couple of weeks ago and it made me realize that yes I was running bad but I was also spewing a lot. Take this oppertunity to take a break and look at your entire game.

What hands are you raising pre from what position what are you doing postflop ect.. From glancing at your stats though i would be more aggressive post flop. Bring your preflop stats closer together and c bet a lot more. You'd be surprised how often people at micro stakes will just give up. There are so many 40/10, 60/0 types playing, put a fold to cbet % on your hud and just bet into the high folders relentlessly.

Your PFR,W$WSF, AF's, and W@SD, tell me that you are playing real bad postflop. You seem to be nut camping. You need be getting more folds from better hands. To have any kind of good winrate playing like you are, you will need to be winning a stack at almost every showdown.

Quote:

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move up to hit an upswing and get paid,

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I'm fairly sure of all your options, that ones the worst.

Man, me c-betting only 44% surprises me a LOT. I was so sure I was c-betting at least 75% that I didn't even look at the stat. Definately a leak.

Also Jager you labeling me as weak-tight is definately true.
Could you give me in indication of a solid W$WSF? Also I thought being a bit less aggressive at micro stakes doesn't hurt, is that thinking flawed?
I actually thought my W@SD was ok, but in relation with my VPIP/PFR it isn't?
What is your advice in general; play more hands more agressive or play the same hands more agressive?

Bjsaust, because my losses for a large part come from some big leaks you are definately right.
Though from a very simplified, theory point of view, if a downswing mostly comes from hitting bad cards, than moving up doesn't seem that bad at all. The bad cards at the lower stakes will eventually be evened out with good cards at the higher stakes.

From a theoretical point of view, if the downswing continues you go broke faster if you move up ;).

What site do you play on? Because your stats look like mine on the fishy stationy site that I play and I maintain a pretty good winrate. I assume the 25NL game on any site should be just as bad as the 100NL game on a fishy site. My VPIP/PFR is a bit more open than yours, running around 25/19 lately, but other than that, there's not a whole lot of difference.

It looks to me like the main thing is you're running bad in the big pots. 32k hands seems like a long time for this to happen though. Definately start posting more hands that aren't obvious coolers though (set vs set, AA vs KK).

This happened to me once before.. 19 buyins, and a friend i have did 24. . My swing lasted about 12K hands before sat down and nuted out what the hell i was doing. The answer was mainly that i was playing weak tight, but also i had gradually become less positionally aware.

Well you def need to get your W$WSF up to ~40. I think your W@SD is too HIGH. You are only showing down great hands. You need to pick up your aggression and move people off pots.

Here is my tip for you:
Assuming you have PAHUD.
Add a combined stat line with: Folds to CBet%, Folds to Turn bet %, Folds to River bet%.

Color coordinate these to:
0-40: Red
40.01-60: Yellow
60.01-100: Green

Remeber that if you bet 2/3-3/4 pot they only need to fold ~60 % to show an immediate profit. This will also give you a great indicator of who folds AND where(ie doesn't fold flops but most turns). You will also see which players never fold(all red).

Short answer, cbet more, learn pot control and if you are going to call a bet, just bet instead. It's all postflop problems for sure. As for the cbet% it's closer to 50% if you count bet, raise and C/R. You have to stop check/calling flops. Start thinking about new lines, like bet/fold on the flop and betting more turns.

When your W@SD% is 50%+ and you are losing, your winning to many small pots and losing too many big ones. Stop folding after putting 30% of the effective stack in the pot. Plan the hand from preflop not after you see the flop.

thanks guys, lot's of good advice and things I need to think about.

galapogos, the 50NL hands are all from Prima, the 25NL ones almost all from Party and Stars.

I'll get this thread active with results every now and then to show if I'm improving or not. But definately lots of thanks, never thought posting stats could be such an eye opener.