set on scary board.

villain is 22/10/2. i didnt 3 bet pre because i am just not having a lot of success with TT in 3 bet pots. i still 3 bet it like 80% of the time, but since he was UTG and i was on CO, i just decided to flat. i dont think there are too many 8's in this guys range, but like KQ just really jumped out at me when he c/r ai. is there any way i can fold this?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (6 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

SB ($216.65)
BB ($114.10)
UTG ($432.55)
MP ($79.70)
Hero ($209.35)
Button ($118.50)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Thttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, Thttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif.
UTG raises to $7, 1 fold, Hero calls $7, 2 folds, BB calls $5.

Flop: ($22) Thttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $16, BB folds, UTG calls $16.

Turn: ($54) 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $42, UTG raises to $409.55

preflop is fine, i dont even like 3betting an UTG 22/10 raiser with 1010.

turn call. is he even raising KQ utg? we cant really discount it i guess but still he could have a lower set or AA/KK. hard for him to have an 8. not sure if hes raising 88 either. he might be raising 88/KQ would be nice to know his steal stats to know if that 10pfr is just from everywhere or weighted towards position.

I'm not sure betting the turn is good, I think i'd rather call a river bet and bet if he checks the river, not sure we have deuce streets of value.

Tbh I think KQ c-bets a decent amount of time, c/r-es some and indeed sometimes c/c.

I think 88 plays flop like this often.
For the same reason I think 99 c/c flop often.

I don't know if this villain raises hands like 87s+ UTG. A 10%PFR normally wouldn't imo.

I think he has air about never. 88 makes most sense together with KQ. Sometimes set of nines or weird 2 pairs but mostly an 8 trying to get someone of a split imo. I'd fold cheaply.

This is an easy fold. He has KQ or 88 here like always. Turn decision is more interesting, whether to bet or check. I guess I prefer a bet since now he might call with worse, but he can't really profitably bluffraise (which at this limit he probably wouldn't do anyway) since 8 is more in your range than in his. Yeah, I prefer a bet.

so the consensus is b/f?

I think this is 88 almost never. He's not calling a gutshot on the flop OOP with only 2 clean outs. That's assuming he's not stationy post-flop, you didn't really make any comments on his post-flop play.

I think check>bet/call>>>bet/fold

Any OK player cbets KQ and probably 88 on that board. I've seen overpairs do this a lot.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

I'm not sure betting the turn is good, I think i'd rather call a river bet and bet if he checks the river, not sure we have deuce streets of value.

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makes sense

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Galapogos

I think this is 88 almost never. He's not calling a gutshot on the flop OOP with only 2 clean outs. That's assuming he's not stationy post-flop, you didn't really make any comments on his post-flop play.

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unfortunately i dont really have any post flop reads. i think his AF was around 2 fwiw.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Galapogos

I think this is 88 almost never. He's not calling a gutshot on the flop OOP with only 2 clean outs. That's assuming he's not stationy post-flop, you didn't really make any comments on his post-flop play.

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Awesome maths retard. Stop posting on these forums until you learn to count.

88/99 makes WAY WAY more sense for villains line. KQ would c-bet or attempt to checkraise thisf lop. he had the opportunity and missed (unless his AF is like 0.8 or something ridiculous).

turn becomes really tricky cuz like ... he has played it so passively on flop that it's like ... i don't think u can get 3 streets of value out of him, especially now on this board if he thinks u r solid and not a bluffy/spewy player.

personally, id bet because i get called by worse A TON here, and i'd probly call the jam because I'm ahead of hands that just picked up pr's+draw and have redraw outs when he has an 8.

w/ your image, a check behind is probably better since you can't really expect to get called by worse or get 3 streets of value, so make the hand easy to play, c/b the turn and call a river bet or bet river if checked to u. (if board pairs, you can overbet to try to get value from idiots "slowplaying" a lower set.