100NL, flush pair draw in multiway pot, confused

villain is 17.8/4.8/2.14 over 117 hands. i'm wondering if Gambling here is +EV for the long run given flop actions?
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG ($68.40)
UTG+1 ($65.10)
MP1 ($32.30)
MP2 ($29.85)
CO ($116)
Button ($34.05)
SB ($100.50)
Hero ($100)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif.
UTG calls $1, UTG+1 calls $1, 1 fold, MP2 calls $1, 3 folds, Hero checks.

Flop: ($4.50) Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, 4http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif (4 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 bets $1, MP2 calls $1, Hero raises to $6, UTG raises to $67.4, UTG+1 folds, MP2 folds, Hero ?

From this kind of guy a min bet + a push is most likely a set. It can eventually be AKss or AA also.
Let's put some ranges and see it it worth it:

Board: 4c Jc 2s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.096% 41.10% 00.00% 5289 0.00 { 7c2c }
Hand 1: 58.904% 58.90% 00.00% 7581 0.00 { AA, JJ, 44, AsKs }

Note: This is a kind of optimist approach because 22 was not included as we have one of them.
Adding KK just gives us 1% in equity more.

You are getting 1.35 - 1 in pot odds. It means you need to have at least 42.5% of equity. Which with these ranges you don't have.

This is a fold.

he didnt minbet but c/r shove wildly :cool:
this is my pokerstove(AJ, QQ, ac suited added). Oh, baby, my hand had a bit better EV against these ranges i put my villain on!!!!

38,610 games 0.005 secs 7,722,000 games/sec
Board: Jc 4c 2s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.970% 43.96% 00.01% 16974 3.00 { 7c2c }
Hand 1: 56.030% 56.02% 00.01% 21630 3.00 { JJ+, 44, 22, AJs, Ac5c, Ac3c, AJo }

Quote:

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Originally Posted by jimmy44

From this kind of guy a min bet + a push is most likely a set. It can eventually be AKss or AA also.

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fold

are you still folding to 40BB stack size shove?:?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by martindcx1e

fold

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yes

so basically you said you would fold this almost every single time except that villain was extremely shortstacked like 15BB-20BB, right?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by martindcx1e

yes

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I gamble with him

As retarded as this looks, I would fold because your flush draw is pretty weak.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Fnord

As retarded as this looks, I would fold because your flush draw is pretty weak.

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That's not retarded at all. Fold here is 100% standard.

all we beat is a flush draw, and even a flush draw has 13 outs.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by XTR1000

I gamble with him

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really? that's a pretty big gamble. the raise is 60 bb's more.

I wanna gamble it, just cause I think it would be better for my image. But it's pretty much a wash equity wise I think. Might be slightly +eV or slightly -eV depending on his exact range.