I suck at playing draws

Standard 10nl villain big VP$iP small PFR. Maybe I am running really dry right now, and my draws are not hitting but I feel like playing my draws like this is a big leak... Any have any advice so I do not hemorrhage money on the table.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP ($4.45)
CO ($8.40)
Button ($16.70)
SB ($11.35)
Hero ($10)
UTG ($3.95)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, Thttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif.
1 fold, MP calls $0.10, 2 folds, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: ($0.30) 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.3, MP calls $0.30, SB folds.

Turn: ($0.90) 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $0.6, MP calls $0.60.

River: ($2.10) 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, MP checks.

Final Pot: $2.10

Playing draws OOP sucks and i have the same problem of spewing money with them.

If you have a read (PA HUD stat) that he folds lots of rivers, firing a third barrel on this board isn't awful.. if you think he can lay down an ace. Otherwise, checking this river is fine.

u played it fine

Yeah played it good there. These guys think A4o is the nuts here and would probably even call u all the way down if they were dealt an Ace with a Burger King coupon.

I don't really see the point of 2 barreling here.

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Originally Posted by microgrinder

I don't really see the point of 2 barreling here.

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1. build up the pot
2. mp only called, which makes it less likely he has an ace. Altho A1-9 is a possibility.
3. A third barrel here would be sweet =)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by ZwiFT

Quote:

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Originally Posted by microgrinder

I don't really see the point of 2 barreling here.

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1. build up the pot
2. mp only called, which makes it less likely he has an ace. Altho A1-9 is a possibility.
3. A third barrel here would be sweet =)

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At 10NL 3 barrel bluffs are never sweet.

I know i know dude :) I wonder tho, if you have 0 fold equity on turn, and only 8 outs to make your hand a winning hand. How much do you need your opponent to call of here on river every single time for it to be profitable..

Can anyone calculate this?

Yes.

Oh u mean now? :wink:

U have about 82% equity, so u need to pick up about $2.75 total (0.6*.81/0.19) each time you hit so he needs to call off $0.65 more in order for this to be break-even.

It's irrelevant though. Checking turn and vbetting if u hit is much much more +EV at 10NL. But i assume u know this.

from what you said preflop... and i know its not much.... hes likely to be loose/passive. Against these guys you need to try and hit cheap and then get the money in. Semibluffing only works if there is a chance they will fold.

you get owned by KT or something?

triples can work just fine at 10nl. i dont double this because described villain wont fold a jack, and he aint much for bluffing us off our equity

I like the flop bet to get the pot going and you have good fold equity on this flop in a limped pot.

Terrible spot for a second barrel.

this looks fine to me.

I like the flop bet, particularly since a card that makes your hand is unlikely to improve his so much that he'd want to call your value bet later in a tiny pot. I don't like the second barrel though - the main problem is that it's sized just so he'll call it all day with anything reasonable, as well as some draws and some completely unreasonable crap. I like a check here, but if he's the kind to pounce on a check, make a better-priced bet there. I'd prefer to see you bet $1.00 or .40 instead. .40 is probably better EV-wise since it's about the price you'd want for your draw, and you only have to get paid a little more to profit when you hit. 1.00 or so is the only reasonable second barrel bluff amount. .60 is the sweet spot of suck - it's a bad price for your draw and he probably seldom folds to it.

I very seldom(if ever) bet more than pot on the turn, in general can that by itself be a leak?

@ Dale: I really like the $.4 bet, that gives me odds still and builds pot.

For what its worth. Betting turn is NOT a leak. Both of these plays are +EV... But you can argue for checking is slightly marginal better..

Quote:

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Originally Posted by ProZachNation

@ Dale: I really like the $.4 bet, that gives me odds still and builds pot.

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Thinking about it you dont need to build a pot vs a NL10 villan with 80/3.. you just hit your draw on the river and shove it all in and he will call you with a pair of aces/weak kicker =)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by ProZachNation

I very seldom(if ever) bet more than pot on the turn, in general can that by itself be a leak?

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I'm generally a 2/3 pot guy on the turn myself, but that varies at times, and I'm trying to change it up even more. I just re-read Sklansky's no limit book and it expanded my thinking on bet-sizing in general. The main thing when picking a bet size is trying to keep in mind what you are trying to accomplish and who your opponent is. This hand here, you really have a few goals on the turn (if you choose to bet):

1. Win the pot now if possible.
2. Build the pot so that if he calls, and you hit, you can get him to call a larger amount on the river (and win more out of the pot in total).
3. Set your own price for your draw, so you don't have to fold to a more aggressive bet if you check. This is a sort of blocking bet.

1 is always a good result, and with just one card to come it is a more important goal than it was on the flop, since you don't have anything and your odds of making a hand are diminishing. 2 is a fine concept in general although I think it takes a backseat to 1 most of the time on the turn (pot-building means more on the flop, and against more than one opponent). 3 is entirely opponent-based; this guy probably wasn't going to test you with a big bet there, so this point becomes unimportant.

So here, what's going on? You have a loose-passive opponent who probably has a little something that's not a draw, which means he's probably inclined to look you up unless you really bet hard. That also means if you hit, you should get paid reasonably well. He's not aggressive enough, most likely, that checking the turn will result in an uncallable bet from him. Also, he's short-stacked; he only has 4.00 left after the preflop and flop action. The pot is now .90. So you can calculate roughly a few different options:

- A pot-sized or slightly larger bet (I went with 1.00 just because it's basically pot-sized, and the larger figure has a better chance to fold him out)
- The mid-sized bet you did make, .60
- A smaller blocking/pot-building bet of .40
- A check

All of the following is speculative, but I'm going to make guesses for the sake of estimating the outcome.

So what is your EV?
- Pot sized bet: 50% of the time he folds and you win .90. 50% of the time he calls. On the river let's assume you will check/fold if you miss, go all in when you hit (the pot will now be 2.90 and he'll only have 3.00 left, so this is fine). And let's say he calls your all in 1/2 of the time (maybe over-generous, but short stacks do love to call after they've called twice already). Your expectation is: (.5 x .90) + (.5 x .17 x .5 x 4.90) + (.5 x .17 x .5 x 1.90) + (.5 x .83 x -1.00) = .32

- Mid sized bet: 30% of the time he folds and you win .90. 70% of the time he calls. On the river you check/fold if you miss, bet 2/3 pot when you hit (the pot will now be 2.10 and you'll bet 1.40). He calls this 2/3 of the time, folds the rest. Your expectation is: (.3 x .90) + (.7 x .17 x .66 x 2.90) + (.7 x .17 x .33 x 1.50) + (.7 x .83 x -.60) = .21

- Small bet: 20% of the time he folds and you win .90. 80% of the time he calls. On the river you check/fold if you miss, bet 3/4 pot when you hit (the pot will now be 1.70 and you'll bet 1.30 - adjusted upward from the previous river example since the pot is smaller and the bet is more likely to be called though it represents a larger % of the pot). He calls this 3/4 of the time again and folds the rest. Your expectation is: (.2 x .90) + (.8 x .17 x .75 x 2.60) + (.8 x .17 x .25 x 1.30) + (.8 x .83 x -.40) = .22

- Check: he checks also 1/2 the time, bets a larger amount that you fold to 1/4, and bets 1/2 pot (which you call) the other 1/4. If you hit on the river when the pot is .90, you bet .70, which he calls 3/4 of the time and folds the rest. If you hit on the river when the pot is 1.80, you bet 1.40, which he calls 2/3 of the time and folds the rest. If you miss you check/fold. Your expectation is: (.5 x .17 x .75 x 1.60) + (.5 x .17 x .25 x .90) + (.25 x .17 x .66 x 2.75) + (.25 x .17 x .33 x 1.35) + (.25 x .83 x -.45) = .13

A lot of assumptions are riddled throughout here, which you can question and will change the calculations significantly in some places. Those are just my general estimates based on playing with loose/passives. You can see the big bet works out to be best because you win the pot more often up front, and when he calls and you hit you tend to make more money (though he calls your bigger river bet less often); these things more than offset the fact that fairly regularly you lose the 1.00. The mid-sized bet is still profitable but clearly less so. The smaller bet works out to be about the same as your mid-sized one, and I think this strategy suffers against this particular opponent because he's passive - it builds the pot but it rarely blocks him from making a bigger bet that you can't call, which is one of the main aims of this type of bet. So it's fine, but maybe better against a less weak/passive player, or against 2+ opponents. The check is the least profitable - you win small pots sometimes, win mid-sized pots rarely, lose another small bet sometimes, and fold your losing hand for free pretty often. But obviously it carries with it a lot less variance.

(I ignored the possibility here of him donking in his whole stack on the turn - as a 2-bet - 0r on the river when you hit. It simplifies things, and goes with my general assumption that he's passive. But if he's somewhat likely to get a case of the fuckits and play it that way, we can adjust all of these different scenarios accordingly.)