TT - interesting turn

villain is a 20/15/2.5 thinking reg. i think a raise here is pretty sick, because i doubt AA-JJ wants to stack here on this board and even if he does i have a lot of outs. also his bet just screams not wanting to stack, but he still has a good hand with showdown value, if that makes sense. i think if he wanted to stack he would be betting much harder on this board.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (6 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

SB ($282.05)
BB ($200.35)
UTG ($210.15)
MP ($210.75)
CO ($191)
Hero ($204.05)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Thttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, Thttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif.
UTG raises to $8, 2 folds, Hero calls $8, 2 folds.

Flop: ($19) 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif (2 players)
UTG bets $14, Hero calls $14.

Turn: ($47) 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
UTG bets $30, hero...

I don't hate a raise there at all. Push is overzealous but maybe pop it up to 90? He has a lot of hands to be terrified about: 77, 88, 9T, TJ. That's a disgusting board for an overpair, if that's what he's got, and clearly he's insta-folding overcard hands.

But what you don't want is for HIM to have 88. Boy would your face be red.

A raise to $90 leaves us $90 behind for the river. If we miss we don't have much FE on a river bet if he has an overpair. I like a shove or a flat call and re-raising the river. As long as he doesn't have 77 or 88, he's gotta be petrified about our range.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by dev

A raise to $90 leaves us $90 behind for the river. If we miss we don't have much FE on a river bet if he has an overpair. I like a shove or a flat call and re-raising the river. As long as he doesn't have 77 or 88, he's gotta be petrified about our range.

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My problem with both of those -
1. The shove is a serious overbet and looks like a bluff to a thinking player; plus it has to be successful a lot more to be profitable (even though we do have outs when called, which mitigates that somewhat). I think a more conservative raise (but still healthy enough to make him sweat - $90 or $100 seems right to me) is a good risk/reward situation, and if he calls you forget fold equity and plan on checking behind or folding on the river. The problem is that stacks are just deep enough that I think you get in trouble with a push sometimes, but you also aren't quite deep enough to fire a meaningful second barrel. That doesn't necessarily mean that making the bigger bet on the turn is optimal though. (I'd love to hear other opinions on this.)

2. If you flat call two bad things can happen - 1. an overcard lands that hits his range and makes him not want to fold; 2. he leads out big enough that he becomes pot-committed with anything but air. If both happen, that turn flat becomes wasted money. Of course if all goes as planned, no over comes down and he checks or goes with a weak lead, in which case a river push probably wins the pot a whole bunch. But I'd prefer making the move on the turn, personally.

I guess a lot of this has to do with our image... I still think a flat on the turn and a river-push is a really good bluff line. There is, of course, the chance that we're already ahead and he thinks we were just floating the flop. In that case we take it down with a bet, but we're giving a free card to two overs by flatting...

Wouldn't a flop raise settle this?
Given our history, does villain think we'll call 2 barrels with an under pocket pair here?
Shitty spot. I might like a smaller raise here, to $75. It sure looks like a monster trying to set up a river push to a thinking opponent. It might even buy you a free river card if called by an overpair.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Silly String

Wouldn't a flop raise settle this?
Given our history, does villain think we'll call 2 barrels with an under pocket pair here?
Shitty spot. I might like a smaller raise here, to $75. It sure looks like a monster trying to set up a river push to a thinking opponent. It might even buy you a free river card if called by an overpair.

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What happens if he pushes over?

yeah i like a turn raise here a lot i think.

turn raise standard

to how much i only know in game

if you think hes scared, just make it 68 and shove any river. that way he might even give you more money before folding.

i really like nutsinho's line

Quote:

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Originally Posted by dev

What happens if he pushes over?

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I would most likely fold unless Shania dictates otherwise. There are a lot of cards I do not want to see on the river & therefore can't just call the turn lead. I don't see any UTG hand pushing over, unless they have me crushed.

shove it or essentially shove it is probably best, especially when your probably going to make a bad call on the river anyways. It covers up your mistakes.

if hes folding AA u can raise and/or shove

if he isnt call/fold

raise to 80 and shove riv when checked to

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Genitruc

raise to 80 and shove riv when checked to

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why would i shove the river if checked to? i dont beat anything in his calling range and likely dont have any FE if he calls.

68: to a thinking opponent, this is gonna be super scary unless he's seen you pull this type of betsizing move before. you also have close to 2/3 pot left for river, which should be very helpful in selling your bluff. cons-you should fold to a shove and are most likely giving up a decent amount of equity in doing so, although you are drawing to two outs a lot since overpairs that decide not to fold would likely take a call/call line.


80-also a very scary bet but only have 1/2 pot for river, and when he shoves i think it is a very gross decision between calling it off or folding

committing raise/shove- i personally would stack off instantly to this bet with any overpair and would fold to the other bets vs. a majority of players. i dont really know how the masses respond to this bet though. the positive side is obviously that you preserve all of your equity in the pot.

If you raise to 68 and he shoves, do you call?

raising to 80 and shoving riv is *never* a bluff and that s what you re doing here