100NL, 99 in some marginal situation

villain is 13.5/8.64/6 over 81 hands. His flop bet sizing really discouraged me from raising. Should i still raise small on flop to define my hand or just flat call and fold to his double barrel when ace comes out?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP2 ($110.85)
MP3 ($96.60)
CO ($137.55)
Hero ($96.50)
SB ($163.70)
BB ($20)
UTG ($85.10)
UTG+1 ($76.30)
MP1 ($106.85)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif.
4 folds, MP3 raises to $4, 1 fold, Hero calls $4, 2 folds.

Flop: ($9.50) 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif (2 players)
MP3 bets $7, Hero calls $7.

Turn: ($23.50) Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif (2 players)
MP3 bets $18, Hero ?

i liek to raise here than c/f remainging streets coz hes only calling w/ a bettr hand. plus he may be betting hard if he knows your loose on the button cuz its a pretty dry flop, this being the case maybe his bet size is intentional to discourage you playing back at him? as played i would prolly fold

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Originally Posted by reDZill4

i liek to raise here than c/f remainging streets coz hes only calling w/ a bettr hand.

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Why are we raising here if he is only calling with a better hand? Are we turning our pair of nines into a bluff?

Call flop fold turn.

villain has AK or AQ a very high % of the time here. As stated in another thread, raising this flop is key. If you are leading on the flop, it's almost impossible to get any sort of substantial chips on later streets while still leading. So you might as well end the hand on the flop or at worst find out you're dominated right away.

look his cb sizing, how much more do you want to raise on the flop? :?

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Originally Posted by BankItDrew

villain has AK or AQ a very high % of the time here. As stated in another thread, raising this flop is key. If you are leading on the flop, it's almost impossible to get any sort of substantial chips on later streets while still leading. So you might as well end the hand on the flop or at worst find out you're dominated right away.

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I agree that you have to find out on the flop if this is a standard C-bet with air or a value bet with a big PP.

I make it $21 to go and shut down to any further big action (i.e. - I may call a smallish bet on the river).

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Originally Posted by GatorJH

I agree that you have to find out on the flop if this is a standard C-bet with air or a value bet with a big PP.

I make it $21 to go and shut down to any further big action (i.e. - I may call a smallish bet on the river).

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Raising to "find out where you're at" is terrible in this spot. He is only continuing on the turn unimproved a very small percentage of the time. The Ace is a great scare card but also hits his range a ton. 1010-KK often decide to check that card to pick-off bluffs so here has either nothing, an ace, or a set.

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Originally Posted by JL

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Originally Posted by reDZill4

i liek to raise here than c/f remainging streets coz hes only calling w/ a bettr hand.

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Why are we raising here if he is only calling with a better hand? Are we turning our pair of nines into a bluff?

Call flop fold turn.

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This. As Dean said, raising solely for info is a leak.

I like a raise on the flop here also, not "to find out where your at" but for value and to protect your hand. You are way ahead of villain's range, but there are 20 scare cards in the deck and with an AF of 6, I expect villain to use them.

In my experience, villain usually folds to this raise. If he 3-bets or stop and go's the turn, you know your done. The problem with the flop raise is when he calls. Usually he will check the turn to you. If you have a read that villain is a nit that will lay down an overpair, the turn is a good spot for a bluff if he checks. Particularly on this board since villain will call the flop raise w/ KK-TT. Absent a read, I think you have to check behind on the turn, which leaves you in a really tough spot on the river since a lot of villains will fire out here with anything and since its possible they called the flop raise w/ overs. Personally, I'm okay with that because their line is very exploitable if they are doing this with air. If they bet the river here, I will make a note on that villain and will play my sets the same way. If you have seen this villain fire out with air in this spot before, you can profitably call down very light.

So if the flop raise puts us in such a difficult spot on the river, why make it? I think you make it because you probably have the best hand but its extremely vulnerable, and you will usually end the hand right there. Against a villain that likes to 2-barrel, the only other options are to c/f the rest of the way or close your eyes and calldown in some very scary spots. If the villain is passive enough to let you float him here, then that's probably an okay line though I still prefer to protect my hand. Any idea what villain's turn cbet % was here?

I agree with prior posters. If you are not going to raise the flop, you have to fold the ace turn. If you had taken the agression away from him on the flop, you could bet fold the ace turn.

I think Pasta is right on. There is really no way to play this further from where you left. In this situation a c-bet is so likely that you are getting serious value from a raise on the flop, if he does call then you are looking at a tricky turn and river but a call on the flop is just not the play

only 81 hands without turn AF stats. An unknown villain. After reading you guys posts, i still have no idea which line is the best :( . Usually, i ended up playing passively with my measely over pairs on this board but i could really see the point of raising here and define our hand well.

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Originally Posted by Pasta

Any idea what villain's turn cbet % was here?

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if there was a fd on the flop id call and bluff a flush as much as maybe look him sometimes, otherwise id just muck, there will be plenty better oppertunites.

seriously, i'm thinking that your line is the best and really saves lots of postflop headache.:P . Its amazing that nobody mentioned a fold here, wow.

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Originally Posted by Miffed22001

if there was a fd on the flop id call and bluff a flush as much as maybe look him sometimes, otherwise id just muck, there will be plenty better oppertunites.

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Originally Posted by Pasta

I like a raise on the flop here also, not "to find out where your at" but for value and to protect your hand. You are way ahead of villain's range, but there are 20 scare cards in the deck and with an AF of 6, I expect villain to use them.

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for value? so worse hands are calling your flop raise? also, your hand is already protected vs. any draw villain could have. he already bet $7 into a $9.50 pot. he is already being charged to draw. if you are so afraid of cards that may come later then you should just fold now. calling or folding are both acceptable imo, but raising is the worst play.

This is such an obvious flop raise I don't know why it's being debated.

We raise to:

Pick off a c-bet. Missed overs are a big part of his range so we'll get a fold a lot.

Protect our hand. There are lots of turn cards we don't want villain to see and what villain voluntarily puts in the pot with his lead is NOT prepayment for us charging him to draw. If he wants to continue with overcards we make him pay MORE to do so.

Information. We raise/he folds/OHIG. We raise/he calls/he reraises/good chance we're smoked so we act accordingly.

As played, we've pissed away all initiative and our position advantage with what stood a very good chance of being the best hand on the flop.

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Originally Posted by Warpe

his lead is NOT prepayment for us charging him to draw.

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why not? it's the same as if he check/called a $7 bet.

I think this is a classic spot where raising is the easiest and most convenient play but not the most +EV.

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Originally Posted by martindcx1e

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Originally Posted by Warpe

his lead is NOT prepayment for us charging him to draw.

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why not? it's the same as if he check/called a $7 bet.

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This makes no sense.

If I'm villain with AK and c-bet for $7 I'm hoping to take the pot down now
or, at worst, get called and see the turn. If I check and hero bets $7 now I'm paying $7 to draw to my overcards if I call.

Villain takes the initiative by betting. We only take it away by raising.

i hate this spot and fuck my life :x i just drew the conclusion that whether or not we should raise on this flop really depends on why type of villains we are playing against. Is it all right? :roll:

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Originally Posted by Warpe

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Originally Posted by martindcx1e

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Originally Posted by Warpe

his lead is NOT prepayment for us charging him to draw.

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why not? it's the same as if he check/called a $7 bet.

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This makes no sense.

If I'm villain with AK and c-bet for $7 I'm hoping to take the pot down now
or, at worst, get called and see the turn. If I check and hero bets $7 now I'm paying $7 to draw to my overcards if I call.

Villain takes the initiative by betting. We only take it away by raising.

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who cares about initiative if a raise is only called by better hands? also, in your example villain is paying $7 to see a turn either way, which is my point.

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Originally Posted by martindcx1e

I think this is a classic spot where raising is the easiest and most convenient play but not the most +EV.

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I'd rather make a small EV mistake on early streets than a large EV mistake on later ones. Also, it costs us less/~the same to raise the flop than it does to call down flop and turn. If the turn's a blank here it's harder to fold and we still don't know where we stand.

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Originally Posted by martindcx1e

who cares about initiative if a raise is only called by better hands?

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There's a pot up for grabs. We don't take it away by calling down. Plus, we add uncertainty about the strength of our holding. We may even get better to fold.

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Originally Posted by martindcx1e

also, in your example villain is paying $7 to see a turn either way, which is my point.

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They are not the same thing. DUCY?

How do you play the turn if you call the flop and:

Turn is an A, opponent bets: So far, everyone agrees fold.
Turn is a K or Q, opponent bets: I'm guessing this is not much better than an A, so we probably fold here too.
Turn is J or 10, opponent bets: Still fold?
Turn is 8 or lower, opponent bets: I am going out on a limb here, but if raising the flop was bad then raising the turn is even worse, so we probably fold here too.

So basically, as long as opponent 2-barrels, we fold. If he checks, we will usually bet and we expect him to fold, but if he calls we are probably beat. How can this possibly be better than raising the flop? We are depending on our opponent to not bet, we are putting the same amount of money in with less FE, while giving him a free card, and if we are called we will probably lose a showdown. If our opponent is really that predictable, we could float w/ ATc here for the almost the same result - why would we reduce our overpair to ATc?

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Originally Posted by Warpe

There's a pot up for grabs.

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do you bet/raise KK on dry A-hi flops cuz there's a pot up for grabs?

Raising and winning right here sounds like a pretty good result, even if we have to shut down when called. If you just call the flop bet, you're basically just hoping he villain shuts down. If he fires on almost any turn we probably need to think about folding.

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Originally Posted by pokerfan

look his cb sizing, how much more do you want to raise on the flop? :?

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Originally Posted by BankItDrew

villain has AK or AQ a very high % of the time here. As stated in another thread, raising this flop is key. If you are leading on the flop, it's almost impossible to get any sort of substantial chips on later streets while still leading. So you might as well end the hand on the flop or at worst find out you're dominated right away.

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2.5 - 3x bet

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Originally Posted by Pasta

If he checks, we will usually bet and we expect him to fold, but if he calls we are probably beat.

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same as raising the flop except we aren't as sure that he will fold to a flop raise as we are when he checks the turn.

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Originally Posted by Pasta

How can this possibly be better than raising the flop? We are depending on our opponent to not bet, we are putting the same amount of money in with less FE

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i think we have more FE on the turn if he checks. 2 barrelling with missed AK certainly isn't the norm for low stakes games.

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Originally Posted by Pasta

while giving him a free card

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he paid $7 to see it.

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Originally Posted by Pasta

and if we are called we will probably lose a showdown.

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same as raising the flop.

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Originally Posted by Pasta

If our opponent is really that predictable, we could float w/ ATc here for the almost the same result - why would we reduce our overpair to ATc?

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same as raising the flop. raising the flop is pretty much a bluff.

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Originally Posted by martindcx1e

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Originally Posted by Warpe

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Originally Posted by martindcx1e

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Originally Posted by Warpe

his lead is NOT prepayment for us charging him to draw.

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why not? it's the same as if he check/called a $7 bet.

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This makes no sense.

If I'm villain with AK and c-bet for $7 I'm hoping to take the pot down now
or, at worst, get called and see the turn. If I check and hero bets $7 now I'm paying $7 to draw to my overcards if I call.

Villain takes the initiative by betting. We only take it away by raising.

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who cares about initiative if a raise is only called by better hands? also, in your example villain is paying $7 to see a turn either way, which is my point.

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Because hands we beat now but could lose to on later streets we want to fold and missed overcards are very, if not most, likely. For example, A,K and and ace hits the turn....sounds familiar..... This flop does not have draw potential, we are ahead or behind, and 9,9 beats most of his range. If he 3 bets us on the flop, I could find a fold. If he checkraises us on the turn, I could find a fold. Passive against this villian only works if the cards stay low, we chose a passive line and got hit with a bad card on the turn, he kept on the agression, we now need to follow our line and fold.

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Originally Posted by martindcx1e

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Originally Posted by Warpe

There's a pot up for grabs.

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do you bet/raise KK on dry A-hi flops cuz there's a pot up for grabs?

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I wouldn't have gotten that far because I would have 3 bet him pf with K,K here. If an Ace hits I c-bet it heavy on the flop and fold if this particular villian checkraises the flop all in.

Only when we play against straightforward passive villains can we flat call and fold to his double barrel on the turn. There are also many times we can see a cheap showdown and win the pot vs this type of villains.
99 is just too vulnerable to play slowly on this flop vs most evil villains.

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Originally Posted by martindcx1e

do you bet/raise KK on dry A-hi flops cuz there's a pot up for grabs?

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I cbet that all day, every day against most opponents. I probably have the best hand and the flop nailed my range, but if I check I am asking my opponent to take me off my hand. Plus I will occasionally fold out Axs that didn't catch a draw. What else could you do? Check/fold? Call 2-3 streets blind? Call the first street but assume the next bet is for value and not our opponent sensing weakness?

You don't have the option of either betting or checking down to the river. Unless you are going to c/f, you are going to have to call at least one bet. I would much rather be the one making that bet, because I gain a little FE against a few better hands and a lot of information. And even on a dry board, our opponent may have a piece of it with a weak chance to outdraw us, so we may be protecting our hand.

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Originally Posted by Pasta

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Originally Posted by martindcx1e

do you bet/raise KK on dry A-hi flops cuz there's a pot up for grabs?

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I cbet that all day, every day against most opponents.

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this is bad. i will find a good thread for you to read. gimme a min...

here
http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...?highlight=ace

we definitely check our KK on ace flop in 3 bet pot vs most villains, totally different from this situation(99 on 8 high paired flop facing big cb). :cool:

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Originally Posted by pokerfan

we definitely check our KK on ace flop in 3 bet pot, totally different from this situation. :cool:

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i was just quizzing lol...although in both you still are only called by better.

we dont have to bet/raise and define our hand with KK on ace high flop especially in 3 bet pot. If we just call with 99 on this 8 high flop vs tricky aggressive villains, we really step into the darkness without knowing whether we are ahead or not and often end up folding in later streets like i did in this hand.

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Originally Posted by martindcx1e

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Originally Posted by pokerfan

we definitely check our KK on ace flop in 3 bet pot, totally different from this situation. :cool:

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i was just quizzing lol...although in both you still are only called by better.

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Originally Posted by pokerfan

we dont have to bet/raise and define our hand with KK on ace high flop especially in 3 bet pot. If we just call with 99 on this 8 high flop vs tricky aggressive villains, we really step into the darkness without knowing whether we are ahead or not and often end up folding in later streets like i did in this hand.

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Originally Posted by martindcx1e

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Originally Posted by pokerfan

we definitely check our KK on ace flop in 3 bet pot, totally different from this situation. :cool:

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i was just quizzing lol...although in both you still are only called by better.

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if we just call a bet with KK on a dry A-hi flop we don't really know if we are ahead or not either.

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Originally Posted by pokerfan

we definitely check our KK on ace flop in 3 bet pot vs most villains, totally different from this situation(99 on 8 high paired flop facing big cb). :cool:

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I don't necessarily agree with a flop check here in your KK situation, although I understand where you are going in terms of not being called by hands you beat and inducing bluffs. There are still two streets left and I would c-bet it anyway, if not because I would play paired aces the same way. If he calls, I could see checking the turn and calling a river for pot control. If you check the flop you still have two streets you would have to call if he bets into you, which he should do on both streets if he paired his ace.

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Originally Posted by Ltrain

I would c-bet it anyway

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read the thread i linked to. cbetting that is bad.

It is not always a mistake to make a bet/raise that only better hands will call if there are more cards to come, because it can protect your hand.

Given a reasonable range for our opponent, we have about 59% pot equity on the flop:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 58.601% 58.17% 00.43% 66802 495.00 { 9h9s }
Hand 1: 41.399% 40.97% 00.43% 47048 495.00 { 55+, AJs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo }

Now lets assume our opponent really is very predictable so he will fold all worse hands to our flop raise or turn bet, and will usually only bet on the turn w/ TT-AA or if his hand has improved. Lets ignore the times we catch a 9 on the turn, since this helps both lines. He will only fire a 2nd barrel with a worse hand 15% of the time. If we call the flop, we will fold on the turn 46% of the time:

hands relative probability Chance of turn bet
36 55-77 0.156521739 0.205434783 0.032155009
6 88 0.026086957 1 0.026086957
128 Aj+,KQ 0.556521739 0.260869565 0.145179584
60 TT-AA 0.260869565 1 0.260869565
230 0.464291115 Overall chance of turn bet


Then the EV on our flop call is +5.6. If instead we raise the flop, he will fold 71% of the time and our EV is +5.7, even if we assume we have no showdown value and we ignore the times we catch a 9 on the river. And this is against a very predictable opponent. If our opponent 2-barrels 30% of the time with a worse hand, our EV from the flop call drops to +3.4, and at 50% we make nothing other than the possibility of catching a 9 on the turn. Add in the possibility of a c/r or c/c on the turn from an aware opponent that suspects you of floating and this gets ugly fast. But I think your right pokerfan, if we really have an opponent that will very rarely 2-barrel w/o the goods here (10% of the time or less), then calling the flop on a DRY board is probably a good play.

Another question is what percentage of the time you guys will 3 bet on the button vs this villain's lp open raising range (23% attention to steal)?
I agree with Pasta that our hand is probably ahead of our opponent's range on the flop.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by pokerfan

Another question is what percentage of the time you guys will 3 bet on the button vs this villain's lp open raising range (23% attention to steal)?
I agree with Pasta that our hand is probably ahead of our opponent's range on the flop.

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This is probably a better discussion opportunity han the original question posed by the OP.

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Originally Posted by martindcx1e

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Originally Posted by Ltrain

I would c-bet it anyway

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read the thread i linked to. cbetting that is bad.

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I had seen that thread before, but there are two assumptions in the thread that do not apply:

1. first round of a SNG, you bust you are out; and
2. No one without an ace will call.

More to point 2, if the flop is ace, little rags with no draws, a TAG reg with a mid pocket pair does not always fold the flop, if I c-bet, he knows I am cbetting almost every time. I can check the turn to induce a river bluff; I accomplish the same goal as specified by the thread but with more pot control by eliminating a street. Put yourself in villian's shoes, you have J,J... A,3,6 rags, are you autofolding my c-bet? Are you checkraising me or trying to push me off my hand? For most 100NL TAG regs, I think the answer is no.

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Originally Posted by martindcx1e

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Originally Posted by Ltrain

I would c-bet it anyway

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read the thread i linked to. cbetting that is bad.

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the big difference here is that we are not in a WA/WB situation because villain likely has 6 outs, and has a number more that he can represent.

why let him draw to his overs for $7 when we can make him pay more or fold? also, don't forget that he does still have equity in this pot, and we make money when he folds his equity. especially when we will be in a lot of bad spots on a lot of turn/river cards.

Whats wrong with raising to protect our hand? Why do we not want to take the pot down now when there are so many scare cards that can come on the turn, and villian will be 2-barrelling almost 100% of the time regardless.

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Originally Posted by elipsesjeff

Quote:

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Originally Posted by pokerfan

Another question is what percentage of the time you guys will 3 bet on the button vs this villain's lp open raising range (23% attention to steal)?
I agree with Pasta that our hand is probably ahead of our opponent's range on the flop.

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This is probably a better discussion opportunity han the original question posed by the OP.

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I like to see him raise from a steal position a couple of times before 3betting light. More importantly is how does he react to 3bets? if he is calling to hit a flop, or folding, then be more inclined to do it. If he is capable of CRing on a bluff, then be less likely to 3bet light.

23% is not a particularly high att to steal, so I wouldn't necessarily be licking my lips every time he opens from LP, but I would definitely be 3betting a couple of times in a standard session.

Also keep in mind that postflop tendencies can sway you from a light preflop 3bet to a float flop/raise cbet line given that you have position.

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Originally Posted by bjsaust

and villian will be 2-barrelling almost 100% of the time regardless.

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no

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Originally Posted by pgil

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Originally Posted by martindcx1e

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Originally Posted by Ltrain

I would c-bet it anyway

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read the thread i linked to. cbetting that is bad.

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the big difference here is that we are not in a WA/WB

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ya i know i was just curious what he would do bc of the way he was talking.

i may be starting to come around on this one guys. it still just feels so wrong to raise when i know only better hands call. i will def give this more thought though.

I don't really understand something. This something is: How are you possibly 4 betting AK preflop? I mean, the 3 bet is rarely less than ace high.

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Originally Posted by Warpe

This is such an obvious flop raise I don't know why it's being debated.

We raise to:

Pick off a c-bet. Missed overs are a big part of his range so we'll get a fold a lot.

Protect our hand. There are lots of turn cards we don't want villain to see and what villain voluntarily puts in the pot with his lead is NOT prepayment for us charging him to draw. If he wants to continue with overcards we make him pay MORE to do so.

Information. We raise/he folds/OHIG. We raise/he calls/he reraises/good chance we're smoked so we act accordingly.

As played, we've pissed away all initiative and our position advantage with what stood a very good chance of being the best hand on the flop.

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you are allowing our opponent to play his hand perfectly if you do this. hence calling is better.

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Originally Posted by Miffed22001

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Warpe

This is such an obvious flop raise I don't know why it's being debated.

We raise to:

Pick off a c-bet. Missed overs are a big part of his range so we'll get a fold a lot.

Protect our hand. There are lots of turn cards we don't want villain to see and what villain voluntarily puts in the pot with his lead is NOT prepayment for us charging him to draw. If he wants to continue with overcards we make him pay MORE to do so.

Information. We raise/he folds/OHIG. We raise/he calls/he reraises/good chance we're smoked so we act accordingly.

As played, we've pissed away all initiative and our position advantage with what stood a very good chance of being the best hand on the flop.

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you are allowing our opponent to play his hand perfectly if you do this. hence calling is better.

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miffed, this is pretty much my whole argument, but apparently the both of us are in the vast minority.

i think the thing that might be the big difference in this hand compared to others where only a better hand calls a raise is the fact that in other hands you are usually looking to catch a bluff on a later street to extract the most value possible from a worse hand. in this hand i don't think we can call any reasonable sized bet on the turn or the river so we will never ever make any more money from a bluff cuz we aren't going to call villain's bluff. what do ya think?

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Originally Posted by martindcx1e

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Originally Posted by Miffed22001

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Originally Posted by Warpe

This is such an obvious flop raise I don't know why it's being debated.

We raise to:

Pick off a c-bet. Missed overs are a big part of his range so we'll get a fold a lot.

Protect our hand. There are lots of turn cards we don't want villain to see and what villain voluntarily puts in the pot with his lead is NOT prepayment for us charging him to draw. If he wants to continue with overcards we make him pay MORE to do so.

Information. We raise/he folds/OHIG. We raise/he calls/he reraises/good chance we're smoked so we act accordingly.

As played, we've pissed away all initiative and our position advantage with what stood a very good chance of being the best hand on the flop.

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you are allowing our opponent to play his hand perfectly if you do this. hence calling is better.

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miffed, this is pretty much my whole argument, but apparently the both of us are in the vast minority.

i think the thing that might be the big difference in this hand compared to others where only a worse hand calls a raise is the fact that in other hands you are usually looking to catch a bluff on a later street to extract the most value possible from a worse hand. in this hand i don't think we can call any reasonable sized bet on the turn or the river so we will never ever make any more money from a bluff cuz we aren't going to call villain's bluff. what do ya think?

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my immediate thought is that if you raise the flop, AK/AQ folds, eg anything we beat folds. Anything beating us calls AA/KK/QQ etc
then we either get c/r'ed all in on turn and cry or we check behind and call a river bet where few players are bluffing a worse hand.
Also, i dont think anyone would play 88/22 fast on this board as our opponent needs to be given rope to hand himself.

At the very least if you call the turn you can shove the turn/river and probably push opponent off AK/AQ anyway or play the nuts that way and get an insta-call.

one other thing i realized is that if we raise the flop, it is the most expensive way to find out if we are beat while if we are ahead it will cost about the same or slightly less to raise as it would to call and bet the turn.

also, if we call and bet any turn that is checked to us we may actually be able to fold out something like TT when an overcard comes on the turn.

okay so you pick up the possibility to fold out a slightly better hand like tens or push him off the overs on the flop and not get into folding the turn to agression assuming each play is about the same money, which do you think is more likely for him to have in these spots should determine your play i guess, but i still vote for reraising on the flop as you still may get a fold out of 1010

Here is another thing to think about regarding raising the flop (which, btw goes against my initial thought of raising).

If villian is a thinking player would raising the flop define our hand to the point where he knows exactly how to exploit us on a later street and get us off of our mid pp?

In other words, what hands would we flat call pre-flop then c/r on the flop with? 9's, T's, J's, Possibly 7's, and 6's, or total air trying to pick off a C-bet, are IMO about the only three hands that would reasonably take this line.

Thoughts?

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Originally Posted by pgil

I like to see him raise from a steal position a couple of times before 3betting light. More importantly is how does he react to 3bets? if he is calling to hit a flop, or folding, then be more inclined to do it. If he is capable of CRing on a bluff, then be less likely to 3bet light.

23% is not a particularly high att to steal, so I wouldn't necessarily be licking my lips every time he opens from LP, but I would definitely be 3betting a couple of times in a standard session.

Also keep in mind that postflop tendencies can sway you from a light preflop 3bet to a float flop/raise cbet line given that you have position.

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But given we have position on our opponent it turns 99 into as strong as a hand as JJ, except it's easier for us to get away from postflop facing aggression on an all undercard board. Most people, even with a hand as strong as JJ or AK when they're 3bet, freeze in their boots because they don't know how to play OOP in 3 bet pots. With a semi-tight image you'll either make them make a bad fold or call your 3 bet and give up on most flops.

Also, most people don't check/raise bluff in reraised pots. Especially at 100 NL.

I think you have a really good point Gator. But villain does not have much history on us, so at this point we might be a fish that thinks TT-JJ or even a low PP is the nuts here. No one wants to go broke trying to push a donk off 55 here. Once we have established some history against a good, aggressive player we may be in real trouble here. But I think this is okay - if he makes the proper adjustment, we can counteradjust by raising the flop, checking behind on the turn, and snapping up the river bluff with some medium strong hands.

By the way, I think A2s plays out exactly like this, but I play this specifically because my opponent won't give me credit for it so its not going to help my 9's.

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Originally Posted by elipsesjeff

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Originally Posted by pgil

I like to see him raise from a steal position a couple of times before 3betting light. More importantly is how does he react to 3bets? if he is calling to hit a flop, or folding, then be more inclined to do it. If he is capable of CRing on a bluff, then be less likely to 3bet light.

23% is not a particularly high att to steal, so I wouldn't necessarily be licking my lips every time he opens from LP, but I would definitely be 3betting a couple of times in a standard session.

Also keep in mind that postflop tendencies can sway you from a light preflop 3bet to a float flop/raise cbet line given that you have position.

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But given we have position on our opponent it turns 99 into as strong as a hand as JJ, except it's easier for us to get away from postflop facing aggression on an all undercard board. Most people, even with a hand as strong as JJ or AK when they're 3bet, freeze in their boots because they don't know how to play OOP in 3 bet pots. With a semi-tight image you'll either make them make a bad fold or call your 3 bet and give up on most flops.

Also, most people don't check/raise bluff in reraised pots. Especially at 100 NL.

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It is true that 3bets scare the bejeezus out of people in FR. But that may be reason to not 3bet JJ when we have position on a straightforward player. Why put a strong PP into a spot where you aren't getting a lot of action postflop unless it's a cooler situation. 88/99 are different because you are most likely in a coinflip type of situation and they can be a lot harder to play postflop without initiative, even in position.

I would be more inclined to 3bet JT/KQ as opposed to JJ vs. a habitual LP stealer. Against the right opponents it can be more profitable to flat call pairs as low as 88/99 in position, especially if the blinds are tight. Why force your opponent to fold his weaker than average hand preflop when you can take it away or value bet as the situation warrants on a lot of flops?

I CR bluff in reraised pots at 100NL on occasion, and boy is it fun.

i dont think 100NL thinking players are good enough to exploit us in later streets with worse hands after our flop raise. In your case, i rarely c/r with these pairs and either lead out or c/c on this flop.
i'm under the impression that playing well in marginal situations is the best explanation of the difference between good and most mediocre players, IMO.

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Originally Posted by GatorJH

Here is another thing to think about regarding raising the flop (which, btw goes against my initial thought of raising).

If villian is a thinking player would raising the flop define our hand to the point where he knows exactly how to exploit us on a later street and get us off of our mid pp?

In other words, what hands would we flat call pre-flop then c/r on the flop with? 9's, T's, J's, Possibly 7's, and 6's, or total air trying to pick off a C-bet, are IMO about the only three hands that would reasonably take this line.

Thoughts?

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i rarely 3 bet with 99-TT in position. However, i 3 bet with JJ vs LP opener the majority of the time, which might be a leak on my part.

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Originally Posted by pgil

I would be more inclined to 3bet JT/KQ as opposed to JJ vs. a habitual LP stealer.

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After hearing you guys thoughts, i'm more inclined to fold small pairs(33-66) , raise with medium pairs(77-TT) and flat call down with JJ+ Vs standard unknowns on this specific flop. Of course, we could try float/bluff line with small pairs and blow villains off in later streets occasionally.

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Originally Posted by pokerfan

After hearing you guys thoughts, i'm more inclined to fold small pairs(33-66) , raise with medium pairs(77-TT) and flat call down with JJ+ Vs standard unknowns in this hand. Of course, we could try float/bluff line with small pairs and blow villains off in later streets occasionally.

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Funny, but I am almost inclined to 3bet a wider range pf with position. If any flopped ace is scaring villian into a missed fold as many suggest as the standard play, I am going to own him until he adjusts (if he adjusts). If he tightens with the goal of trapping me later, he will just leave me with more hands vs. the fishies.

i'm talking about flop play on this specific board with various pockets holdings.

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Originally Posted by Ltrain

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Originally Posted by pokerfan

After hearing you guys thoughts, i'm more inclined to fold small pairs(33-66) , raise with medium pairs(77-TT) and flat call down with JJ+ Vs standard unknowns in this hand. Of course, we could try float/bluff line with small pairs and blow villains off in later streets occasionally.

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Funny, but I am almost inclined to 3bet a wider range pf with position. If any flopped ace is scaring villian into a missed fold as many suggest as the standard play, I am going to own him until he adjusts (if he adjusts). If he tightens with the goal of trapping me later, he will just leave me with more hands vs. the fishies.

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Originally Posted by Ltrain

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Originally Posted by pokerfan

After hearing you guys thoughts, i'm more inclined to fold small pairs(33-66) , raise with medium pairs(77-TT) and flat call down with JJ+ Vs standard unknowns in this hand. Of course, we could try float/bluff line with small pairs and blow villains off in later streets occasionally.

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Funny, but I am almost inclined to 3bet a wider range pf with position. If any flopped ace is scaring villian into a missed fold as many suggest as the standard play, I am going to own him until he adjusts (if he adjusts). If he tightens with the goal of trapping me later, he will just leave me with more hands vs. the fishies.

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This is what I was leaning more towards.

3betting JJ is for value. 3 betting 99 is for a different (but related) reason.

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Originally Posted by elipsesjeff

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Originally Posted by Ltrain

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Originally Posted by pokerfan

After hearing you guys thoughts, i'm more inclined to fold small pairs(33-66) , raise with medium pairs(77-TT) and flat call down with JJ+ Vs standard unknowns in this hand. Of course, we could try float/bluff line with small pairs and blow villains off in later streets occasionally.

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Funny, but I am almost inclined to 3bet a wider range pf with position. If any flopped ace is scaring villian into a missed fold as many suggest as the standard play, I am going to own him until he adjusts (if he adjusts). If he tightens with the goal of trapping me later, he will just leave me with more hands vs. the fishies.

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This is what I was leaning more towards.

3betting JJ is for value. 3 betting 99 is for a different (but related) reason.

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omg, fr players 3betting light. i thought that was for 6max players only!

standard play is usually to 3bet JJ for value, but my argument was that it mey be more profitable to flat call JJ vs certain opponents, for instance those who like to cbet/double barrel too much, or will take a weak TP too far so long as you don't give them too much reason to believe that their AT isn't good on a T high board. This becomes even more appealing if your opponent isn't good enough to make you fold the better hand all that often.

If your opponent is opening light, then automatically 3betting a big PP allows him off the hook too easily.

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Originally Posted by Miffed22001

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Originally Posted by elipsesjeff

3betting JJ is for value. 3 betting 99 is for a different (but related) reason.

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omg, fr players 3betting light. i thought that was for 6max players only!

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that's why owning FR nits is more fun :wink:

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Originally Posted by Warpe

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Originally Posted by Miffed22001

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Originally Posted by elipsesjeff

3betting JJ is for value. 3 betting 99 is for a different (but related) reason.

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omg, fr players 3betting light. i thought that was for 6max players only!

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that's why owning FR nits is more fun :wink:

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yeah you can do it on 15 tables at once :D