Hand from last night - good? bad? meh?

No hand history but I remember the details well. Villain is sort of nitty and tends to be weak post-flop. I've floated a hand on him successfully once before, several orbits ago; that set up this pre-flop call, which I usually wouldn't make. I'm running about 30/22/4. Effective stacks are $29.

Preflop: I am on the button with :Ah: :5h:.

Villain raises to 75 cents from UTG+1, CO folds, I call, blinds fold, UTG folds.

Flop: :2h: :3h: :Kc:

Villain bets 1.00, I raise to 4.00, villain raises to 7.00 (CiB), I call.

Turn: :9s:

Villain bets 10.00, I call.

River: :4h:

Villain checks, I push.

Preflop is meh, turn call is bad.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Warpe

turn call is bad.

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Why? I have at least 10 clean outs and he's definitely felting after pouring in that much money through the turn. It might be marginal but I don't think it's bad.

On the fly last night I overestimated my outs slightly but analyzing it now I still think it's about break-even to call. If you look at it as a situation where you will fold any miss or pair to the board on the river, or push and get called on any non-pairing heart or four, then basically I am calling $10 on the turn to win 36.50 (pot + his $10 bet + his last $11). So I'm getting about 3.7:1 on my call and my draw is just barely better than that to hit (3.6:1).

Yeah, ur right. Add the GS and the overcard outs we don't need much better than ~2.5:1

My bad. Need more coffee.

im probably just shoving the flop honestly. getting back to warpe said about pf play. if your intention was to pretty much simply float him on a lot of flops because hes weak post flop, i like that a lot. if your intention was to try to spike an A and value town him thats not so good.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by will641

im probably just shoving the flop honestly. getting back to warpe said about pf play. if your intention was to pretty much simply float him on a lot of flops because hes weak post flop, i like that a lot. if your intention was to try to spike an A and value town him thats not so good.

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Nah, I hate playing weak aces that way. What I like to do against this type of player is call in position with drawy hands - suited aces, suited connectors and gappers, unsuited connectors - and then look for boards I can float on profitably, mixed with some draws and surprise hits. A lone ace would be the last thing I'm looking for. I'm more interested in hearts, the wheel, two pair, or (the majority of the time) any flop that looks like J83 rainbow.

The flop play was the part that interested me most here. Why shove the flop? He's showing some interest in felting, so I would guess he has AA/AK/KK a lot. Is it more +EV to shove (with low or no fold equity) or to call and try to save money when you miss? The only thing I would have hated after that call would have been a pot-sized bet (or a shove) from him on the turn, but this particular guy wasn't too likely to do that based on previous hands.

Shove flop!

If this was deep then a call could be ok, cause it doesnt seem like you have much FE, but 100bb's just shove.

Shoving because you probably have pretty damn good equity (even against AA/AK/KK), and its possible that if you hit your flush on the turn you don't get paid off after just calling.

Also shove because you're the favourite if he ever has KQ here, or worse draw, and he might sometimes fold even.

edit:

Board: 2h 3h Kc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.574% 43.36% 00.21% 11162 54.00 { Ah5h }
Hand 1: 56.426% 56.22% 00.21% 14470 54.00 { KK+, 33-22, AKs, KdQd, KhQh, KsQs, KhJh, QhJh, 5h4h, AKo }

you have too many outs to call flop and allow him to jam a blank turn on you. all in on flop

Point taken, I agree with you guys.

(But it made it more delicious to have played it this way and see him show down three kings. Mwahahaha!)