In Which Hero Scratches his Head

Eff stacks of 380$

I had 60ish hands on villain and had him at 27/17 with low AF on flop but high on turn riv (obv meh sample…). No notable showdowns that I remember with him.

Seat 1: Kasparoso ($200 in chips)
Seat 2: HERO ($659.49 in chips)
Seat 3: Sculli002 ($112.20 in chips)
Seat 4: hartata ($214.60 in chips)
Seat 5: XAVMEL ($154.50 in chips)
Seat 6: VILLAIN ($381.70 in chips)
Sculli002: posts small blind $1
hartata: posts big blind $2
----- HOLE CARDS -----
dealt to HERO :5d: :6d:
XAVMEL: folds
VILLAIN: raises to $6
HERO: raises to $20
Sculli002: folds
hartata: folds
VILLAIN: calls $14
----- FLOP ----- :3h: :4h: :5c:
VILLAIN: checks
HERO: bets $31
VILLAIN: calls $31
----- TURN ----- :3h: :4h: :5c: :6s:
VILLAIN: bets $330.70 and is all-in
HERO

Whats his callingrange btw for 3bets OOP?Does he call those often?
Really tough spot, but i lean toward folding, cause he might have a set here alot.

Easily not enough reads to call this.

fuhold

what does he have if u fold

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Originally Posted by nutsinho

what does he have if u fold

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that s why i m scratching my head

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Originally Posted by nutsinho

what does he have if u fold

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Why, you callin?

This is the type of player that could slow play a big pair here and thinks he is value shoving.

However:

Board: 3h 4h 5c 6s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.612% 42.66% 07.95% 976 182.00 { 6d5d }
Hand 1: 49.388% 41.43% 07.95% 948 182.00 { TT+, 77-22, AhKh, AhQh

edit{I guess 67 is in his range as well. }

This is pretty sick close. You should probably fold if his bluffing frequency isn't going to be very high. I probably call in the moment though.

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Originally Posted by pocketfours

Quote:

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Originally Posted by nutsinho

what does he have if u fold

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Why, you callin?

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no i am not. but i think its close and i wonder what range youd put him on

Quote:

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Originally Posted by nutsinho

Quote:

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Originally Posted by pocketfours

Quote:

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Originally Posted by nutsinho

what does he have if u fold

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Why, you callin?

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no i am not. but i think its close and i wonder what range youd put him on

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I'm honestly not capable of putting him on any kind of range since we know absolutely nothing about him (60 hands/no reads). If villain would be myself, then I'm never holding anything but the nuts here (distant second possibility 7hxh). However, a braindead ape might hold any two cards, so let's try to figure this out by thinking that he could be one:

Let's simplify the problem and assume that we have exactly two possibilities:

1. Villain is a tight nit like myself, or:
2. Villain is a braindead ape, holding any two cards

Then let's find out what the likelihood for villain to be an ape P(ape) has to be for the call to be profitable. Required equity: 330/760 = 43%

Equity against tight nit:
Hand 0: 09.390% { 6d5d }
Hand 1: 90.610% { Ah7h, 9h7h, 87s, 7h6h, 87o }

Equity against ape:
Hand 0: 60.871% { 6d5d }
Hand 1: 39.129% { random }

Simple algebra:

P(ape)*EV(ape) + P(nit)*EV(nit) = 43%
P(ape)*EV(ape) + (1-P(ape))*EV(nit) = 43%
P(ape)*EV(ape) + EV(nit) - P(ape)*EV(nit) = 43%
P(ape)*EV(ape) - P(ape)*EV(nit) = 43% - EV(nit)
P(ape)*(EV(ape) - EV(nit)) = 43% - EV(nit)
P(ape) = (43% - EV(nit)) / (EV(ape) - EV(nit))
P(ape) = (0.43 - 0.09) / (0.61 - 0.09) = 0.34 / 0.52 = 0.65

65%, does that sound reasonable?

screw ranges. odds are atrocious and he's got garbage equity seldom. fold and its not even close to being close.

typically we dont wanna call massively massive overbets with bluff catchers

I see no compelling reason to look him up here.

-is he ever doing this without a 7

-what hands with a 7 in them match the preflop and flop action

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Originally Posted by wufwugy

typically we dont wanna call massively massive overbets with bluff catchers

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Typically we don't want to, but wouldn't it be great if we could though?

The funny thing is that if we only call this with the nuts, then villain can always make a +EV shove here with garbage and we don't want that either.

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Originally Posted by pocketfours

Quote:

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Originally Posted by wufwugy

typically we dont wanna call massively massive overbets with bluff catchers

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Typically we don't want to, but wouldn't it be great if we could though?

The funny thing is that if we only call this with the nuts, then villain can always make a +EV shove here with garbage and we don't want that either.

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sure he can, but after we know he doesn't have real hands because he does it too much we call and take his money.

I would guess he has 77 [edit - nutsinho got me thinking, he has 22 a lot also]. I also guess he has 33 or 44 more than you'd think, and had the typical bad player's reaction to a board that quickly went south. In that same vein 66 could fit, though there's only one way he could have that hand, and therefore he doesn't show up with it as much as the others.

Anyway I'm not calling it. If he's bluffing here he'll be giving away his money soon enough.

i actually think 7x is super unlikely. I'd expect to see 22 a lot though. Dunno what else really fits besides spastic bluffs.

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Originally Posted by nutsinho

i actually think 7x is super unlikely. I'd expect to see 22 a lot though. Dunno what else really fits besides spastic bluffs.

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eh, it really just depends how light hes calling 3 bets. also, i could really see him taking this line with like, 77/66, or any other set. i wouldnt limit his range to just straights and bluffs.

pseudoscience thread of the year imo