tough spot vs. reg

opp is running 16/14/4.6
Is my turn bet too small here and should I bet river? Call shove?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (6 handed) Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Hero ($224.20)
MP ($42)
CO ($230.30)
Button ($250.40)
SB ($219.55)
BB ($258.85)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif.
Hero raises to $7, 2 folds, Button calls $7, 2 folds.

Flop: ($17) Thttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, 4http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $12, Button calls $12.

Turn: ($41) 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $28, Button calls $28.

River: ($97) Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $50, Button raises to $203.4 (All-In), Final Pot: $451.40

i think you see 89 a lot, JT and sets. do you have any other reads than stats? this is a pretty easy fold as played.

What do you think he has?

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Originally Posted by will641

i think you see 89 a lot, JT and sets. do you have any other reads than stats? this is a pretty easy fold as played.

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no other reads. I didn't even think of 89 though. That makes it easier. As for a set, do you think a reg commonly slowplays two streets like that?

played fine, and easy river b/f

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Originally Posted by kapilalink

16/14/4.6

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Originally Posted by will641

i think you see 89 a lot, JT

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LOL

edit: LOL again at a guy with a 4.6 AF calling this airball flop with 8+ good outs the once in a blue moon all 8 tables are so card dead that he calls a non-pair.

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Originally Posted by Fnord

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Originally Posted by kapilalink

16/14/4.6

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Originally Posted by will641

i think you see 89 a lot, JT

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LOL

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you think a 16/14 is incapable of calling with sc's otb? i dont understand.

and yeah, i wouldnt expect him to play a set like that, but its a pretty dry board, so he might. i mean, it could be complete air, but i reallllllly doubt it.

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Originally Posted by will641

you think a 16/14 is incapable of calling with sc's otb? i dont understand.

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16 - 14 = 2.

Do the math.

His range here is pairs, pairs, pairs, more pairs, yet more pairs and once a blue moon somthing suited and connected.

The river bet against this guy is pure hatred of money.

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Originally Posted by Fnord

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Originally Posted by will641

you think a 16/14 is incapable of calling with sc's otb? i dont understand.

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16 - 14 = 2.

Do the math.

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i never learned arithmetic. wanna explain what that is supposed to mean?
30 - 28 = 2 also.

Alright, with less sarcasm this time.

He's almost too tight for 6max and is in love with his bet/raise button when he's not folding.

You probably have kinda TAggy stats and raise UTG, he just calls on the button. Lets just assume he's got a pair right there because just about everything else raises or folds. It's what he does.

Flop is all air. He either has a set or a small/medium pair. If he sucks at poker, you bet and he doesn't put up a fight when he misses. Insta-profit. If he's more aware, you're going to get some grief and can't just auto-bet there every time and need to balance out your bets with some checks and just let the Wookie win sometimes because he plays tight has position and the pot is small.

Ok, he calls. He could be pot controling with a medium pair (again, not really his style) or letting you spew off because he has a set. It really comes down to how often he fights back.

Turn is a total blank and you fire again. If he's not playing without a set very often you just made a pretty big fuck up. If he's floating around, meh, maybe he puts you on TT+ now and gives it up. Again he calls. Alarm bells should be going off here. Curious line if he has a set, but all we have to work here is chow/chow/meow and not much actionable post-flop information.

River gives us TPTK. Checking is +EV because he'll sometimes just check behind pairs expected to see like a busted AK here. Betting won't fold a better hand, will sometimes induce a bluff we can't call and rarely get called by a worse hand. He's just not a call it down type and 3 barrels from you probably means something.

The moral of the story is: Don't pick marginal hands out of position to get into big pots with players who are almost absurdly tight and aggressive.

+4 on analysis.

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Originally Posted by will641

+4 on analysis.

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I concur

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Originally Posted by Fnord

Flop is all air. He either has a set or a small/medium pair. If he sucks at poker, you bet and he doesn't put up a fight when he misses. Insta-profit. If he's more aware, you're going to get some grief and can't just auto-bet there every time and need to balance out your bets with some checks and just let the Wookie win sometimes because he plays tight has position and the pot is small.

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Definately agree, but like to add that I like a c-bet more often than not if it's with the intention of betting more turns than the ones we are hitting. If he is raising flop light your c/f frequency goes up ofcourse, but villains high AF certainly partly comes from him almost always having the initiative postflop, so it isn't a 100% indication he'll raise flop light.

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Originally Posted by Fnord

Turn is a total blank and you fire again. If he's not playing without a set very often you just made a pretty big fuck up. If he's floating around, meh, maybe he puts you on TT+ now and gives it up. Again he calls. Alarm bells should be going off here. Curious line if he has a set, but all we have to work here is chow/chow/meow and not much actionable post-flop information.

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Turn to me is the most interesting street because of the FD.
Betting isn't great because we have very little FE and really don't want to get raised.
Checking gives the pot controll to villain, which hurts us quite bad in this spot. To a large bet we likely have to fold, assuming villain doesn't have air here often. But there's also a chance it checks through, which is great...and we can c/c the smaller bets.

My conclusion is I probably c/c or c/f depending on betsizing, and I probably call up to 3/4PSB.

If villains range was a bit wider and I knew he floats some, I bet more and might consider a c/r the wider it gets.


I actually don't know what to think of hero's play with his betsizing. I think your range is so much overpairs here, that villain can raise you small with his good cards to expect a call...and you have to call with your FD, so he's valuetowning you.
On the other hand, villain might think you'll fold your overpairs to his raise, so he'll only call you...which is ofcourse great since you bought a cheap river card.
(note: against a wider range I think the small bet get's bluff raised too often, but against this villain it might be very good)


As played, river is a c/c or c/f depending on betsize for me, but definately mostly c/f.

Yeah, I like a turn c/c.

anyone else think the 1/2 pot river bet is just giving him a green light to shove? i think i bet 75 and fold to a shove because he is rarely gunna bluff that bet and might get stubborn with a 10 that claims triple barrell.

I really doubt he's bluff shoving that river ever

whats a good reason to bet 50 rather than 75?

we can go from "really doubting" that hes shoving the river as a bluff to being almost positive that he wont bluff us.


i think he had 78ss and he took us off our hand on the river cuz we didn't bet enough.

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Originally Posted by kapilalink

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Originally Posted by will641

+4 on analysis.

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I concur

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qft

Thanks for that Fnord.

Fnord - good analysis on that kind of a player

Though I think you're definitely skewing his range way stronger than it could be in this spot.

How would you play AA here if you were hero? If you're so convinced that his call down means he has a set or something that strong? Are you actually c/f any street?

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Originally Posted by griffey24

Are you actually c/f any street?

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The flop if he's good.

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Originally Posted by Fnord

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Originally Posted by griffey24

Are you actually c/f any street?

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The flop if he's good.

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qft, cbetting this vs a 16/14 is :(

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Originally Posted by nutsinho

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Originally Posted by Fnord

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Originally Posted by griffey24

Are you actually c/f any street?

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The flop if he's good.

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qft, cbetting this vs a 16/14 is :(

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Umm.. maybe you guys missed the part where I said, how would you play AA if you were hero?

Hopefully not c/f flop :)

LOL. yeah im usually just top set mining when i have aces. sorry

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Originally Posted by griffey24

how would you play AA if you were hero?

Hopefully not c/f flop :)

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No, but checking to a betting station sure is a lot of fun.

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Originally Posted by nutsinho

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Originally Posted by Fnord

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Originally Posted by griffey24

Are you actually c/f any street?

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The flop if he's good.

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qft, cbetting this vs a 16/14 is :(

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?????????

Check flop or double barrel like you did is fine. Betting flop and checking turn makes no sense. If you check flop and he checks behind double barrel nearly everytime.

River id bet more as well.

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Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

Check flop or double barrel like you did is fine. Betting flop and checking turn makes no sense. If you check flop and he checks behind double barrel nearly everytime.

River id bet more as well.

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Could you please eleborate.

Is hero's hand face up when we c-bet - check turn?
What do you expect to be villains turn range / turn betting range when checked to?

Imo villain checks some made T's, 88/99, no?
Isn't one of the main reasons we don't want to bet that villains range is strong, so we don't want to get raised and have to call? What's wrong with a c/c on the turn, expecting to get paid decently because if villains strong range?

If we bet turn, what rivers are we betting?
What raise sizes are we calling, and what's the river plan?


(apologies for the shitload of questions, but it's a fairly common situation where I think a lot of us lower stakes players don't know what to do for which reasons)

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Originally Posted by Galapogos

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Originally Posted by kapilalink

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Originally Posted by will641

+4 on analysis.

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I concur

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qft

Thanks for that Fnord.

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Nice work Fnord.

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Originally Posted by minSim

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Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

Check flop or double barrel like you did is fine. Betting flop and checking turn makes no sense. If you check flop and he checks behind double barrel nearly everytime.

River id bet more as well.

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Could you please eleborate.

Is hero's hand face up when we c-bet - check turn?
What do you expect to be villains turn range / turn betting range when checked to?

Imo villain checks some made T's, 88/99, no?
Isn't one of the main reasons we don't want to bet that villains range is strong, so we don't want to get raised and have to call? What's wrong with a c/c on the turn, expecting to get paid decently because if villains strong range?

If we bet turn, what rivers are we betting?
What raise sizes are we calling, and what's the river plan?


(apologies for the shitload of questions, but it's a fairly common situation where I think a lot of us lower stakes players don't know what to do for which reasons)

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Villains range is pretty much exclusively pocket pairs and some sc's, most of which hit a pair. He surely isn't folding any pair to one bet.

i really hate your new avatar danny. plz change it back. wat was it before your maharishi one again?

hah i was just gunna say danny it looks like max that time we gave him a mohawk

It expresses my hate for 2p2 poster EC10 who is really annoyingly stupid.

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Originally Posted by c-luvin

hah i was just gunna say danny it looks like max that time we gave him a mohawk

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http://a240.ac-images.myspacecdn.com...9c01d67287.jpg

even if he isn't folding much, our betting range still needs an air %, albeit a small one, and hands like this are perfect.

Also, i firmly believe that we'll come out ahead vs a lot of the pairs in his range by betting the flop with overs and backdoor nfd.

did we ever get the results?