100NL: River push by a station

Poker Room skin
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
5 players
Seat 1: BU ($339.25 in chips)
Seat 2: SB ($45.35 in chips)
Seat 4: BB ($180.40 in chips)
Seat 7: Hero [ 6S,6H ] ($104.50 in chips)
Seat 8: MP ($95.30 in chips)
Converter

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is UTG with 6 :spade: 6 :heart:
Hero raises to $4, 3 folds, BB calls.

Flop: K :spade: 6 :diamond: 8 :heart: ($8.5, 2 players)
BB bets $1, Hero raises to $6, BB calls.

Turn: 9 :heart: ($20.5, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $15, BB calls.

River: 5 :spade: ($50.5, 2 players)
BB is all-in $155.4, Hero ???

villain was 60/1/3 (river aggression was around 20, while other streets it was close to 1)

Flop raise was dump, should have made it to $8.
I know that he's representing the 7 here, but is that the only thing we can put villain on?
We are getting about 1.6 - 1. Does he really bluff more then 37%?
I believe this should be a difficult fold, right?

Sucks but you can't call this

7's are the only thing we're worried about. the only other hands we care about are 88/99, but i'll stack off every time set/set. I think this is an easy fold looking at it after the fact but def. much more difficult in real time. That said, you have to fold this because a 60 vpip has 7's in his range.

actually, how many hands is the sample on villain? i missed the river AF of 20, and that would definitly make me want to call more if the sample is 100+ hands.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bode

actually, how many hands is the sample on villain? i missed the river AF of 20, and that would definitly make me want to call more if the sample is 100+ hands.

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I think it was something like 80-100. Of course this does not say he always pushes with 2pair+ on the RIVER while OOP ...

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bode

actually, how many hands is the sample on villain? i missed the river AF of 20, and that would definitly make me want to call more if the sample is 100+ hands.

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How often are we seeing a river in 100 hands?

Postflop stats require a very big sample size, even more only those for the latest street. I guess at least 500+ to be reasonably to use.

fold, just because his river AF is 20 doesn't mean he is open shoving something other than a 7 here.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by c-luvin

fold, just because his river AF is 20 doesn't mean he is open shoving something other than a 7 here.

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Yeah he could easily be achieving this river AF with awesome min-bet bluffs like he used on the flop here. Fish stats that indicate aggression are so hard to take for face value as a lot of them are skewed by the dumb min-raise shit they do. You will almost never, except in very special circumstances, see someone spazz out like this on the river without the nuts at this level.